Infrastructure Archives - WITA http://www.wita.org/atp-research-topics/infrastructure/ Thu, 02 May 2024 14:56:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2018/08/android-chrome-256x256-80x80.png Infrastructure Archives - WITA http://www.wita.org/atp-research-topics/infrastructure/ 32 32 How the BRI Is Shaping Global Trade and What to Expect From the Initiative in Its Second Decade /atp-research/bri-trade/ Fri, 01 Dec 2023 15:00:48 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=44271 At the end of November, China’s Belt and Road Construction Leadership Group released a ten year plan for the next phase of the BRI. This comes a month after Beijing celebrated ten...

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At the end of November, China’s Belt and Road Construction Leadership Group released a ten year plan for the next phase of the BRI. This comes a month after Beijing celebrated ten years of China’s Belt and Road Initiative by hosting the Third BRI Forum with attendees from 150 countries. This special edition of the Global China Competition Tracker looks at the BRI’s first decade of evolution, assesses its impact, and asks what the future of Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative might look like. 

The BRI has had considerable influence on China, on BRI host countries and the world. It would be wrong to see it as a declining force simply because Beijing is allocating less finance to BRI projects: many of the BRI’s initial goals were achieved early on in its first decade. The BRI has evolved over time to suit Beijing’s strategic goals. This special edition of the tracker examines the BRI’s impact on trade flows through the ports sector – critical logistics nodes along the BRI. We look at the ports built, bought, operated and used by China’s state-owned national champions. 

First, Clark Banach maps out China’s footprint across global port ecosystems in a detailed map. Banach, who is MERICS Futures Fellow, explains the more deeply Chinese SOE’s are entrenched in a port, the more strongly it is pulled into China’s orbit at the expense of trade with other partners. 

Second, MERICS Lead Analyst Jacob Gunter builds on Banach’s quantitative analysis with a qualitative look at how China’s involvement in ports develops. Gunter details China’s presence in Mediterranean and Northern European shipping ecosystems and how ports can spread distortions emanating from China’s own economic model. He examines how port networks create potential dependency and influence risks. 

Banach and Gunter then take a closer look at four Mediterranean ports with Chinese participation. In each case study, they assess Chinese SOEs’ strategic and commercial success or failure. The case studies look at port holdings or operations in Greece, Spain, Algeria, and Israel and offer a way to benchmark Beijing’s desired outcomes and how far they are being achieved. 

Finally, they suggest what the future of the BRI might look like, drawing on President Xi Jinping’s speech to Third BRI Forum and their own research. The future BRI can be expected to leverage its extensive built infrastructure further, while shifting focus towards green energy and telecoms equipment. China’s green transition industries suffer from overcapacity, so they need export outlets, while telecoms giants like Huawei and ZTE must secure and expand their footprints in more neutral markets to compensate for restrictions on their activities in liberal democratic markets. 

Chinese port holdings and projects impact trade beyond the BRI

The BRI was officially introduced in 2013 as part of Xi Jinping’s agenda to expand China’s global influence. However, the initiative had been gathering speed since 1999, first as the “Go Out Policy” (which encouraged Chinese businesses to find partners in international markets), then as the “Going Global Strategy.” By the time Xi Jinping officially baptized the BRI as “One Belt One Road,” Chinese firms had secured terminal operating contracts at ports in 14 countries (in order of agreement: United Kingdom, Argentina, Pakistan, Belgium, Malta, Poland, Spain, Egypt, Angola, United States, Greece, Sweden, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Togo). In the last 10 years, the network of global influence has expanded to over 75 countries. 

To better understand how this network of Chinese owned, operated or built port terminals affects world trade, we identified changes in exports, imports, and total trade flows after signing a contract. Our findings suggest China’s port network has played a significant role in reshaping international competition. The results indicate that terminal operating contracts have a significant impact on bilateral trade with China, while a completed port project will temporarily increase trade with the rest of the world (RoW).

Where Chinese firms operate ports, they appear to modify the host countries’ trade toward China and away from former trade partners. By contrast, infrastructure projects appear to bring temporary economic benefits to host economies that fade away about four years after completion. For the BRI’s trade network to function as a new development model, it would need to bring substantial benefits to host countries. While the BRI has generated extensive discussion and geopolitical debate, detailed analysis of its economic effects has been limited. At present, it remains uncertain whether the benefits of these relationships outweigh the risks, or if the new model of interconnectivity benefits host countries as much as they benefit China. 

These are not abstract matters, as Germany recently allowed Chinese state-owned shipping giant COSCO to take a significant stake in the port of Hamburg. An expansive presence in Mediterranean ports has also garnered substantial attention, as it could offer strategic advantages for China among growing tensions between Europe and Asia.

The Maritime Silk Road stretches further than its official footprint

China’s reach extends far beyond the BRI’s official membership boundaries and is fortified by its prolific investment in overseas ports. This ambitious expansion fits within China’s broader global economic strategy. Although the official Maritime Silk Road (MSR) serves as a primary channel for international flows, additional port contracts with Chinese firms can be considered tributaries along a wider network of influence. Countries along this extended MSR can transact relatively easily with Chinese firms due to shared standards and practices along the supply chain.

The BRI’s stated objectives include policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. This reduces uncertainty as well as the transaction costs of trade between partners, which can manifest as fees, commissions, insurances and legal expenses, along with the time required to procure these services. In a world increasingly interconnected by trade, transaction costs play a pivotal role in shaping economic relationships. 

China’s port activities influence Global Trade Networks

Our estimates suggest that this growing constellation of Chinese port activities has had a significant impact on total trade with China over the past 20 years. Typically, we see a trend towards more exports to China as control over terminal operation increases. This means that Chinese firms are buying a greater share of their goods from these countries than ever before. Furthermore, these results are not affected by a country’s development status. Regardless of GDP per capita, the changes are significant and consistent.

All participation is not created equal. Investment projects, property acquisitions and operating agreements for port terminals by Chinese SAEs are not equivalent events. As the level of control at the port increases, total trade also increases with China. Port construction projects show a different pattern. As Chinese investment increases, so does trade with the rest of the world, at least temporarily. The statistically significant increases to total trade flows begin six years prior to completion and, on average, turn negative four years after completion. This suggests that trade increases may come from the surge in materials, equipment and project requirements to actually develop the terminal rather than a reduction in trade costs.

Unless a Chinese SAE is involved in port operations, there are no measurable long-term changes to trade flows after a port development project. This is surprising, as gains from trade are often the main motivation for large maritime infrastructure projects. However, there is evidence that the short-term increases to total trade during the time of construction do generate temporary economic benefits for host economies. 

Key findings from empirical analysis of Chinese port activities

A port contract with a Chinese firm does not predict an increase in trade between other members of the extended MSR. This implies that there is no significant reduction in costs between these trade partners and that cost savings are a result of a reduction in transaction barriers between host economies and Chinese markets. Pricing data would be needed to confirm whether host countries have shifted business away from low-cost providers, but trade flows indicate that trade is being diverted away from their former trade partners in favor of trade with Chinese firms.

  • Total trade with China is expected to increase about 21 percent after a terminal operating contract is signed and exports to China usually increase more than imports.
  • Expected increases are magnified if Chinese firms have a controlling interest in all terminals, in at least one port in the country. In these cases, over a 12-year period, exports to China would be expected to increase by 76 percent, whereas imports from China would be expected to increase by 36 percent.
  • Host countries that allow Chinese firms to operate all terminals in at least one port saw a 19 percent reduction in exports to the rest of the world (RoW) during the analysis period.
  • Chinese firms buy more goods than they sell to the host countries after operating agreements are signed and much of the cost savings go to the Chinese.
  • There is no measurable effect on overall trade between other members of the trade network, regardless of whether China is included in the estimation.
  • Completed infrastructure projects bring no significant long-term effects. Agreeing to and completing an infrastructure development project predicts a temporary increase in trade with all partners during the duration of a project, but these effects do not last.

These results indicate that hypothetically, a country could maximize the economic benefits of cooperation by allowing Chinese SAEs to operate one or two port terminals, while also negotiating regular maritime infrastructure development projects that diversify import and export partner during construction. However, this constellation omits the serious financial and geopolitical risks of unintended lock-in effects and challenges that can arise during long-term operating contracts. 

Geopolitical risks need consideration 

It would be too ambitious to claim that China is indeed giving the world a new model of international development, although it appears their maritime activities have certainly modified conditions in global markets. China’s network of SAEs acts as a quasi-supranational organization seeking to establish a global footprint. Host economies may gain from greater trade, increased commerce and cheaper goods but the price tag includes institutional lock-in and loss of diversity in trade partners.

For policymakers, the challenge is to find a balance between benefiting from economic interdependence and mitigating the hazards in a geopolitically unstable world. In the best-case scenario, any trade diversion would benefit network members by reducing total trade costs; however, in real terms, an undiversified supply chain is a national security risk. The more a country becomes economically dependent on another, the less agency it will have in making economic decisions. Caution is advisable.

MERICS China Global Competition Tracker No. 4 2023

To read the full article as it is published on MERICS’ website, click here.

To read the full article, click here.

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Can and Should the US Compete with China in Infrastructure Diplomacy? /atp-research/us-china-infrastructure-diplomacy/ Tue, 23 Nov 2021 15:04:07 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=31452 Neglected for decades by developed countries and international development institutions, infrastructure has garnered renewed attention. With the global infrastructure gap estimated to exceed US$40 trillion, the need for more infrastructure...

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Neglected for decades by developed countries and international development institutions, infrastructure has garnered renewed attention. With the global infrastructure gap estimated to exceed US$40 trillion, the need for more infrastructure is overwhelming.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), inescapable due to its size and ambition, is also renewing attention on infrastructure projects. China’s promise to spend trillions of dollars in infrastructure through the initiative, ostensibly to strengthen global trade routes, has raised much concern in many countries and triggered the ideation of equally ambitious plans for infrastructure development.

Chief among the competitors is the United States. At the 2021 G7 Summit, the US launched the Build Back Better World initiative, or B3W. Established to build infrastructure, B3W is also expected to set new standards that better reflect the values of Western democracies, and balance against the BRI and China’s global reach. The questions many are asking: Will the initiative be successful? Can or should the US compete with China in infrastructure diplomacy? Can the B3W and the BRI collaborate?

In this essay, Maria Adele Carrai of New York University Shanghai compares China’s BRI and the US-led B3W, focusing on the differences between the two approaches and the limitations of B3W to compete with the BRI. Carrai argues that the need is urgent for the US and China to better coordinate international infrastructure investments, effectively allocate resources, and avoid duplicates or overlapping of initiatives. Most importantly, they must consider the real needs of the developing world rather than simply fall prey to geopolitics and strategic considerations.

Can and should the US compete with China in global infrastructure financing - Maria Adele Carrai - Hinrich Foundation - November 2021

To read the full report from The Hinrich Foundation, please click here.

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Building the Road to Greener Pastures: How the G20 Can Support the Recovery with Sustainable Local Infrastructure Investment /atp-research/g20-sustainable-infrastructure/ Thu, 15 Jul 2021 17:53:29 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=29500 The economic consequences of COVID-19 have increased the need for substantial infrastructure investment to support the global recovery. This report recommends that the focus should be, in particular, on sustainable...

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The economic consequences of COVID-19 have increased the need for substantial infrastructure investment to support the global recovery. This report recommends that the focus should be, in particular, on sustainable investment to help achieve the Paris Agreement climate targets and to avoid more capital becoming stranded as climate policies toughen in the coming decades. Local infrastructure, which accounts for most sustainable infrastructure needs, should be a major target area. Building on the G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure, this report investigates the role those different aspects of predominantly local infrastructure could play in the decarbonisation of the G20 economies.

The economic crisis arising from COVID-19 has led G20 economies to unleash huge volumes of fiscal support. This support has tended to prioritise protection of existing economic structures. As support measures transition into fiscal stimulus, G20 governments must consider the structural impact that measures will have on long-term economic growth. The necessity for fiscal stimulus in the recovery provides a unique opportunity for a sustainable infrastructure strategy aimed at transforming G20 economies into economies fit for the challenges and changes of the twenty-first century.

G20-Green-local-Infrastructure

To read the full report from Bruegel, please click here

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The Challenge of Decarbonizing Heavy Industry /atp-research/decarbonizing-heavy-industry/ Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:53:34 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=28499 Heavy industry makes products that are central to our modern way of life but is also responsible for nearly 40% of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Steel, cement, and chemicals...

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Heavy industry makes products that are central to our modern way of life but is also responsible for nearly 40% of global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Steel, cement, and chemicals are the top three emitting industries and are among the most difficult to decarbonize, owing to technical factors like the need for very high heat and process emissions of carbon dioxide, and economic factors including low profit margins, capital intensity, long asset life, and trade exposure.

Steelmaking uses coal both as a source of heat and as part of the chemical process of converting iron ore to elemental iron. Both of these uses produce carbon dioxide. Eliminating CO₂ emissions from steelmaking requires a change in process. Using hydrogen as the heat source and the chemical reducing agent can eliminate CO₂ emissions, or carbon capture can remove them. Steel can also be recycled without CO₂ emissions, but demand for steel is too large to be met with recycled steel alone.

Cement production also releases CO₂ as part of the chemical process, in this case when limestone is heated to very high temperature to produce calcium oxide “clinker,” the cement’s primary component. Other substances can be mixed with clinker while still maintaining cement quality, but the primary method of decarbonizing the sector is to capture the CO₂ and store or find a use for it.

The chemical industry is different from the other two, encompassing many thousands of processes and products. However, more than 90% of “organic,” or carbon-containing, chemicals are derived from just a few building blocks, which are produced in large quantities and traded internationally. The chemical industry is also unique in that it uses coal, oil, and natural gas as feedstocks that are transformed into final products, not just sources of energy. Fossil fuels will likely still be feedstocks in a zero-carbon world, with process electrification and zero-carbon hydrogen as methods of removing CO₂ emissions. Ammonia is crucial for fertilizer and although it does not contain carbon, hydrogen needed for its production is today made from natural gas, with carbon dioxide as a by-product.

FP_20210623_industrial_gross_v2

To read the full report from the Brookings Institute, please click here.

 

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Clean and Competitive: Opportunities for U.S. Manufacturing Leadership in the Global Low-Carbon Economy /atp-research/us-leadership-low-carbon-economy/ Thu, 10 Jun 2021 14:55:12 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=28527 Majorities of Democrats and Republicans—in Washington, DC, and around the country—agree on the goal of rebuilding the nation’s manufacturing sector. This sector has historically been a key job creator, with...

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Majorities of Democrats and Republicans—in Washington, DC, and around the country—agree on the goal of rebuilding the nation’s manufacturing sector. This sector has historically been a key job creator, with spillovers rippling across broad regions of the country and helping to lift many workers without a college education into the middle class. A strong manufacturing base creates a more resilient and equitable economy, accelerates innovation, strengthens international competitiveness, and improves national security.

At the same time, a growing majority of Americans (along with the vast majority of scientists) are alarmed or concerned about climate change and perceive it to be an important priority for the federal government, although public opinion is less unified on this issue than on manufacturing. If the world is to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement, the United States, along with other major world economies, will have to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dramatically over the next three decades. The quest for net-zero emissions will touch every sector of the global economy.

Until very recently, these two national challenges have been treated largely within their own policy silos. Policies that sought to address the decline in U.S. manufacturing were not motivated by or centered on the need to transition to a net-zero economy. Climate policies focused primarily on the electricity system, even though that sector accounts for only about 25 percent of total U.S. emissions, and devoted little energy to addressing manufacturing, which may soon become the largest emissions sector.

2021-clean-competitive-manufacturing

To read the full report from the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, please click here.

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Turning Talk into Action: Building Canada’s Battery Supply Chain /atp-research/talk-action-canadas-battery-supply/ Wed, 19 May 2021 15:28:09 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=28249 The world’s largest economies are ramping up their climate ambitions and radically reimagining their economies. Canada too must not only identify where our strategic opportunities lie in a future net-zero...

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The world’s largest economies are ramping up their climate ambitions and radically reimagining their economies. Canada too must not only identify where our strategic opportunities lie in a future net-zero world—but also take steps today to ensure those opportunities don’t pass us by.

Canada has a once-in-generation opportunity to establish itself as a major player in the global battery sector, but that window will close with or without us.

Why must Canada act now?

First is the scale of the opportunity. Driven largely, though not exclusively, by the rapid growth in electric vehicle manufacturing, the global market for lithium-ion batteries is expected to grow exponentially over the next few decades, as will demand for the metals and minerals that supply them.

Second, the benefits for Canada are economy-spanning. With known deposits of critical metals and minerals, plenty of clean electricity (to power lower-carbon operations), and access to a well-integrated North American market, Canada can do more than merely extract and supply the raw materials—we can

be a leading supplier of sustainable battery materials and a producer of cutting-edge technology.

And finally, developing Canada’s battery supply chain will help anchor our existing auto sector, ensuring we capture the jobs and value created in the transition to electric vehicles.

With Asia and Europe accelerating ahead, North America needs to catch up—or lose global market share.

In the Roadmap for a Renewed U.S.-Canada Partnership released earlier this year, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau identified the battery supply chain as a collaborative opportunity for our two nations.

But despite actions taken to date, industry stakeholders
felt that Canada is still a long way from having a mature battery supply chain. Which is why Clean Energy Canada convened experts across the supply chain—including mining, battery manufacturing, auto parts and assembly, and battery recycling—to identify these no-regrets priority actions Canada must take in the immediate-term to establish itself as a player in the global battery industry.

1. Form an intergovernmental battery secretariat to
enable decision-makers across departments and levels of government to act quickly, nimbly, and in a coordinated way.

Photo credit: Blue Solutions

2. Immediately convene an industry-led Canadian battery task force to deliver advice to governments on how to develop Canada’s battery industry by the end of 2021.

3. Develop a North American Battery Alliance within the next year to leverage the integrated Canada-U.S. market, connect players along the supply chain, and drive capital investment.

4. Unlock Canada’s sustainable battery metals, minerals, and materials supply to realize one of Canada’s major value propositions and attract battery-related investment.

5. Ramp up Canada’s midstream supply chain capacity to feed battery materials and components to regional auto manufacturers.

6. Launch a dedicated battery supply chain fund to address challenges and invest in strategic projects along the Canadian value chain.

7. Better promote Canada’s clean and responsible battery brand to secure investment and attract OEMs and tier 1 battery producers to locate their facilities here.

8. Create a government-funded, industry-led Battery Centre of Excellence focused on commercializing advanced battery technology and manufacturing R&D.

9. Grow demand for batteries in North America to ensure there is sufficient demand for EVs, batteries, and their input materials and parts.

The battery supply chain is a key one for Canada, as acknowledged by the federal government in its most recent climate plan and last month’s budget. But action matters more than talk, and more action will be needed to build a domestic industry.

Turning-Talk-into-Action_Building-Canadas-Battery-Supply-Chain

To read the full report by Clean Energy Canada, please click here.

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Small Island Developing States: Maritime Transport In The Era Of A Disruptive Pandemic – Empower States To Fend Against Disruptions To Maritime Transportation Systems, Their Lifeline To The World /atp-research/small-islands-maritime-lifeline/ Mon, 03 May 2021 19:13:22 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=28094 The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have had less noticeable impacts on small island developing States (SIDS). However, the impacts may be longer lasting and more critical. The...

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The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have had less noticeable impacts on small island developing States (SIDS). However, the impacts may be longer lasting and more critical. The pandemic has exacerbated the unique and overwhelming challenges in these States related to connectivity; a high level of dependence on external trade; remoteness and prohibitive transport costs; food security; infrastructure gaps; resilience; sustainability; and access to finance. This policy brief builds on the findings in Review of Maritime Transport 2020 and of the ongoing United Nations-wide project “Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics: Contactless, seamless and collaborative solutions”, launched in 2020 amid the pandemic.1 It highlights key priority actions and policy recommendations to support SIDS in strengthening their ability to respond to shocks and disruptions that undermine their maritime transportation systems and to future proof their maritime supply chains through sustainability and resilience-building efforts.

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To read the full report, please click here.

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Financing Nature: Closing the Global Biodiversity Financing Gap /atp-research/financing-nature/ Tue, 08 Sep 2020 20:47:06 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=22955 The Financing Nature report addresses two important challenges. First, the report lays out the broad economic case for protecting nature, including an examination of the many known economic and social...

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The Financing Nature report addresses two important challenges.

First, the report lays out the broad economic case for protecting nature, including an examination of the many known economic and social values of biodiversity, while recognizing that the complexities and interdependencies of nature mean that attempted economic valuations will almost certainly be partial and underestimates. Biodiversity loss presents serious known and unknown risks to human prosperity. The report further examines the underlying market failures that hasten global biodiversity loss and indicates a number of policy interventions and changes needed to halt biodiversity loss.

Second, the report focuses on a critical element related to protecting biodiversity, namely the biodiversity financing gap between the current total annual capital flows toward global biodiversity conservation and the total amount of funds needed to sustainably manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystems integrity. Having gauged this biodiversity financing gap, the report identifies a set of nine financial and policy mechanisms that, if implemented and scaled up, can collectively close this gap.

The report goes into detail about the enabling conditions for the implementation and scaling of each of these mechanisms, and it makes detailed recommendations for policy makers, business leaders, and other stakeholders. It makes clear that all governments—from the biodiversity rich nations that may have limited economic means to the established donor countries—must take immediate actions to stem the loss of biodiversity.

The immediate intent of this report is to inform the work of national delegations and other negotiators in developing the resource mobilization strategy for the Post-2020 Biodiversity Framework that will be agreed to at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in 2021. The longer-term intent is to help political leaders, country finance ministries, international institutions, and representatives of companies, NGOs, and private philanthropy to better understand the economic case for biodiversity conservation and to accelerate the transformation of national economic models to those that appropriately value nature.

Given the magnitude of the biodiversity financing gap identified by this report, coupled with estimates of the relatively limited amount of funding that will be available in coming years from traditional sources such as governmental budgets, official development assistance (ODA), and philanthropy, it is critical that the biodiversity targets to be agreed to at COP15 incorporate a broad spectrum of nontraditional mechanisms. Catalyzing private sector capital must be a priority, given that it constitutes the largest available source of financing. However, the report makes clear that the potential for private capital to support biodiversity conservation will only be realized if appropriate governmental policies, regulations, and incentives are in place.

CBD Foreward & ExecutiveSumary Final 0908-04d14013-b20e-495f-902a-a53139d9fb7b

To download the full report, please click here

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America’s New Climate Economy: A comprehensive guide to the economic benefits of climate policy in the United States /atp-research/americas-new-climate-economy-a-comprehensive-guide-to-the-economic-benefits-of-climate-policy-in-the-united-states/ Wed, 01 Jul 2020 15:34:28 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=22485 This working paper draws on the latest economic research to demonstrate how climate policy and investments in low-carbon infrastructure can reboot America’s economy and set it up for long-term success. On the other...

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This working paper draws on the latest economic research to demonstrate how climate policy and investments in low-carbon infrastructure can reboot America’s economy and set it up for long-term success. On the other hand, delaying action on climate will further expose the United States to costly damages from climate impacts, air pollution, and public health crises.

The United States has made substantial progress towards a low-carbon economy over the past several years. Low-carbon technologies have become more efficient and affordable, and U.S. clean energy investment and deployment grew to new heights, creating millions of jobs. Whether this continues will depend on how the government responds to the COVID-19 crisis.

In addition, addressing climate change can allow the United States to secure a share in the booming domestic and global cleantech market by manufacturing and exporting low-carbon technologies. Moreover, it will help revitalize rural communities by diversifying rural economies and providing affordable clean energy.

Inequalities highlighted by the COVID-19 crisis make it clear that the United States must ensure that moving forward climate policies are fair and equitable by supporting fossil fuel workers and communities and ensuring the benefits of climate policies are shared by all.

americas-new-climate-economy

To view the original report, please click here

 

 

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World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown /atp-research/world-economic-outlook-the-great-lockdown/ Wed, 15 Apr 2020 18:07:43 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=20053 The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide. Protecting lives and allowing health care systems to cope have required isolation, lockdowns, and widespread closures to slow the...

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The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide. Protecting lives and allowing health care systems to cope have required isolation, lockdowns, and widespread closures to slow the spread of the virus. The health crisis is therefore having a severe impact on economic activity.

As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario, which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound, the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support. There is extreme uncertainty around the global growth forecast.

The economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict, including the pathway of the pandemic, the intensity and efficacy of containment efforts, the extent of supply disruptions, the repercussions of the dramatic tightening in global financial market conditions, shifts in spending patterns, behavioral changes (such as people avoiding shopping malls and public transportation), confidence effects, and volatile commodity prices.

Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital flow reversals, and a collapse in commodity prices. Risks of a worse outcome predominate. Effective policies are essential to forestall worse outcomes. Necessary measures to reduce contagion and protect lives will take a short-term toll on economic activity but should also be seen as an important investment in long-term human and economic health.

The immediate priority is to contain the fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak, especially by increasing health care expenditures to strengthen the capacity and resources of the health care sector while adopting measures that reduce contagion. Economic policies will also need to cushion the impact of the decline in activity on people, firms, and the financial system; reduce persistent scarring effects from the unavoidable severe slowdown; and ensure that the economic recovery can begin quickly once the pandemic fades.

Because the economic fallout reflects particularly acute shocks in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses. Such actions will help maintain economic relationships throughout the shutdown and are essential to enable activity to gradually normalize once the pandemic abates and containment measures are lifted.

The fiscal response in affected countries has been swift and sizable in many advanced economies (such as Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Many emerging market and developing economies (such as China, Indonesia, and South Africa) have also begun providing or announcing significant fiscal support to heavily impacted sectors and workers.

Fiscal measures will need to be scaled up if the stoppages to economic activity are persistent, or the pickup in activity as restrictions are lifted is too weak. Economies facing financing constraints to combat the pandemic and its effects may require external support. Broad-based fiscal stimulus can preempt a steeper decline in confidence, lift aggregate demand, and avert an even deeper downturn. But it would most likely be more effective once the outbreak fades and people are able to move about freely.

The significant actions of large central banks in recent weeks include monetary stimulus and liquidity facilities to reduce systemic stress. These actions have supported confidence and contribute to limiting the amplification of the shock, thus ensuring that the economy is better placed to recover.

The synchronized actions can magnify their impact on individual economies and will also help generate the space for emerging market and developing economies to use monetary policy to respond to domestic cyclical conditions. Supervisors should also encourage banks to renegotiate loans to distressed households and firms while maintaining a transparent assessment of credit risk.

Strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, including to help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks, and for channeling aid to countries with weak health care systems. Countries
urgently need to work together to slow the spread of the virus and to develop a vaccine and therapies to counter the disease.

Until such medical interventions become available, no country is safe from the pandemic (including a recurrence after the initial wave subsides) as long as transmission occurs elsewhere.

 

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