Source: Chepeliev et al. (2022).

Source: Ruta et al. (2022).

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U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 are projected at $152.0 billion, up $11.5 billion from the August forecast, driven by higher soybean and corn export values. The projection for soybean exports is up $5.9 billion to a record $26.3 billion due to higher unit values, strong demand from China, and record volumes. Corn exports are forecast up $4.2 billion to $13.2 billion as a result of reduced competition, higher unit values and record volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $300 million to $5.3 billion based on higher unit values. Wheat exports are projected at $6.2 billion, up $200 million, on higher unit values and slightly larger volumes. Overall major agricultural bulk commodity exports are forecast to increase 24 percent from the previous projection. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast unchanged at $32.3 billion, as lower exports of pork and hides and skins offset increases in beef and poultry. Horticultural exports are forecast down $500 million to $34.5 billion due to expected decreases in miscellaneous products. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at a record $27.0 billion, an increase of $8.5 billion, largely due to strong soybean and corn demand. China is expected to once again become the largest U.S. agricultural market, a position it last held in FY 2017.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are forecast at $137.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the August forecast, led by expected increases in horticultural products. Horticultural imports are forecast up $400 million to $70.2 billion on increases in fresh fruit and vegetable imports.

Economic Recovery and Uncertainty in 2021

The global COVID-19 pandemic has already inflicted major setbacks to countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) around the world. Expectations of real GDP numbers have improved from the initial lockdown contractions, but recovery forecasts are still marked by uncertainty and prone to future setbacks. Several promising vaccine developments have provided increased optimism, pushing global equity markets higher and adding to hopes that GDP growth may return strong in 2021. Overall, global real GDP growth is expected to fall by about 4.4 percent in 2020. This is slightly less severe than was previously feared back in June. Global trade volume, which declined 9.2 percent in FY 2020, is expected to increase 7.2 percent in FY 2021. The expected economic recovery in 2021 will be shaped by both regional and overall global success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to boosting consumer spending.

Despite upward revisions to 2021 growth projections, projected real GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Economic recoveries will be dependent on the status of the pandemic and public health initiatives, including the successful distribution of vaccines. The U.S. economy contracts by 4.3 percent in 2020, with optimism for a recovery of 3.1 percent growth in 2021. The Eurozone economy declines by a more severe 8.3 percent in 2020, leading to a larger correction and a greater projected 2021 real GDP growth rate of 5.2 percent. The service-sector-dependent advanced economies continue to face enormous challenges imposed by the pandemic. Declines in consumer spending in recreation, food services, and travel account for most consumer demand declines. Savings rates continue to remain above pre-pandemic levels, signaling cautious consumer sentiment. The high savings rates hold potential for bodog casino a large and swift economic recovery next year.

Real GDP in North America grows by a projected 3.3 percent in 2021 after a contraction of 4.9 percent in 2020. Canada and Mexico experience significant GDP declines in 2020, down 7.1 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively. These larger contractions factor into the larger rebounds forecast for 2021. Canada grows by 5.2 percent and Mexico by 3.5 percent.

South American real GDP collectively declines by 8.1 percent in 2020, with a 3.6 percent growth rate in 2021. Having faced negative GDP growth just prior to the pandemic, Argentina is expected to have real GDP decline by 11.8 percent in 2020. This substantial contraction allows ample room for future growth. Numerous recent policy changes help Argentina to grow by 4.9 percent in 2021. Experiencing notably weaker growth than recent years in the wake of the pandemic, China is expected to have real GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2020. In 2021, China’s growth rate returns to previous trend levels and grows at a rate of 8.2 percent. This return to large growth is dependent on many variables, including public health conditions, which have reduced consumer sentiment and caused the recovery of retail sales to lag the rest of the economy. Industrial production has and will continue to support China’s economic trajectory, but its success is also conditional on the recovery of its trading partners. Japan will improve from a 5.3 percent decline in GDP in 2020 to 2.3 percent growth in 2021. South Korea will improve from a decrease in GDP of 1.9 percent in 2020 to 2.9 percent growth in 2021.

Forecast reductions in tax revenue present additional challenges for rising debt levels due to pandemic-related fiscal spending across the globe. Governments reliant on high oil prices for financing public expenditures are expected to face tighter budgets going forward. International financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, have responded to the financial pressures by stating an increased tolerance for higher public debt in the short-term, as well as temporary debt moratoriums. Relaxation of debt burdens will allow countries to respond to the crisis with fiscal policy; however, it could increase pressure to cut expenditures in the future.

These forecasts still hold an atypically large margin of error, particularly to the downside, since the forecasts rely on public health and economic variables that are difficult to predict. For example, the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook forecast includes a protracted recovery scenario due to difficulty containing the spread of the virus and a delayed release of a vaccine. In this scenario, they estimate global GDP is 3 percent lower in 2021 than in their baseline forecast. There is also greater uncertainty in these forecasts due to changes in consumer preferences and behavior, which have dramatically shifted from the pre-pandemic world. It is yet to be seen how many of these changes will persist in the future.

To read the full report, please click here.

Bart Kenner is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

Hui Jiang is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

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Global output collapsed in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, with declines of more than one-fifth in some advanced and emerging-market economies. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies, the contraction in output would have been substantially larger. Output picked up swiftly following the easing of confinement measures and the initial re-opening of businesses, but the pace of the global recovery has lost some momentum over the summer months.

• Household spending on many durable goods has bounced back relatively quickly, but spending on services, especially those requiring close proximity between workers and consumers or international travel, has remained subdued.
• Hours worked have fallen significantly everywhere, but government support schemes have helped to maintain household incomes.
• Corporate investment and international trade remain weak, holding back the pick-up in manufacturing production in many export-oriented economies.

The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty and projections are dependent on assumptions about the spread of the COVID-19 virus and policy developments.

• The projections assume that sporadic local outbreaks will continue, with these being addressed by targeted bodog poker review local interventions rather than national lockdowns; a vaccination is assumed not to become widely available until late in 2021. 
• Global GDP is projected to decline by 4½ per cent this year, before picking up by 5% in 2021. The drop in global output in 2020 is smaller than expected, though still unprecedented in recent history, but this masks considerable differences across countries, with upward revisions in China, the United States and Europe, but weaker-than-expected outcomes in India, Mexico and South Africa. 
• In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic. 
• If the threat from the coronavirus fades more quickly than expected, improved confidence could boost global activity significantly in 2021. However, a stronger resurgence of the virus, or more stringent containment measures, could cut 2-3 percentage points from global growth in 2021, with higher unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.

Fiscal, monetary and structural policy support needs to be maintained to preserve confidence and limit uncertainty, but evolve with underlying economic conditions. 

• Many central banks have appropriately announced further policy easing in the past three months and changes in policy frameworks are being rightly introduced to convince investors that policy rates will be kept low for a long time. 
• Fiscal policy support needs to be pursued in 2021 and recent announcements in many countries of additional fiscal measures are welcome; the aim must be to avoid premature budgetary tightening at a time when economies are still fragile. 
• The maintenance of strong fiscal support should not prevent necessary adjustments to key emergency programmes – including job retention schemes, and income support measures – to limit long-lasting costs from the crisis and encourage the needed reallocation of resources towards expanding sectors. 
• Enhanced global co-operation to maintain open borders and the free flow of trade, investment and medical equipment is essential to mitigate and suppress the virus in all parts of the world and speed up the economic recovery.

To download the full report, please click here

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In light of the coronavirus pandemic slowing down worldwide economic activity in the spring of 2020, it is not clear at this time whether a structural break in globalization will occur and whether we are facing the onset of a phase of deglobalization. Since data for the year of 2020 are not available yet, any statements on the influence of the pandemic on globalization in the countries analyzed are in part speculative. However, initial calculations for Germany at the end of Chapter 3 suggest that the impact of the pandemic on the globalization-induced growth of gross domestic product per capita may well be considerable at the current margin of the analysis period.

Analyses of historical data on global trade interrelations also permit an assessment of which of the 45 countries are expected to be more strongly affected by a pandemic related decline in globalization. Due to this, Chapter 3 presents a foreign trade dependency index to reflect the potential economic impact of countries in the face of a global crisis such as the coronavirus pandemic. Comparison to the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 also presents plausibility of the dependency index as an indicator of the decline in economic performance due to global crisis. 

On top of this, well-structured fact sheets are provided for each of the 45 countries, summarizing the key findings of the Globalization Report for the individual countries at a glance.

To download the full report, please click here.

© Bertelsmann Stiftung 2020

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James K. Jackson is a Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service. 

Martin A. Weiss is a specialist in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service.

Andres B. Schwarzenberg is an analyst in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service.

Rebecca M. Nelson is a specialist in International Trade and Finance at the  Congressional Research Service

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As with the April 2020 WEO projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast. The baseline projection rests on key assumptions about the fallout from the pandemic. In economies with declining infection rates, the slower recovery path in the updated forecast reflects persistent social distancing into the second half of 2020; greater scarring (damage to supply potential) from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown in the first and second quarters of 2020; and a hit to productivity as surviving businesses ramp up necessary workplace safety and hygiene practices. For economies struggling to control infection rates, a lengthier lockdown will inflict an additional toll on activity. Moreover, the forecast assumes that financial conditions—which have eased following the release of the April 2020 WEO—will remain broadly at current levels. Alternative outcomes to those in the baseline are clearly possible, and not just because of how the pandemic is evolving. The extent of the recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects—as the June 2020 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) Update discusses—raising the possibility that financial conditions may tighten more than assumed in the baseline.

All countries—including those that have seemingly passed peaks in infections—should ensure that their health care systems are adequately resourced. The international community must vastly step up its support of national initiatives, including through financial assistance to countries with limited health care capacity and channeling of funding for vaccine production as trials advance, so that adequate, affordable doses are quickly available to all countries. Where lockdowns are required, economic policy should continue to cushion household income losses with sizable, well-targeted measures as well as provide support to firms suffering the consequences of mandated restrictions on activity. Where economies are reopening, targeted support should be gradually unwound as the recovery gets underway, and policies should provide stimulus to lift demand and ease and incentivize the reallocation of resources away from sectors likely to emerge persistently smaller after the pandemic.

Strong multilateral cooperation bodog poker review remains essential on multiple fronts. Liquidity assistance is urgently needed for countries confronting health crises and external funding shortfalls, including through debt relief and financing through the global financial safety net. Beyond the pandemic, policymakers must cooperate to resolve trade and technology tensions that endanger an eventual recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, building on the record drop in greenhouse gas emissions during the pandemic, policymakers should both implement their climate change mitigation commitments and work together to scale up equitably designed carbon taxation or equivalent schemes. The global community must act now to avoid a repeat of this catastrophe by building global stockpiles of essential supplies and protective equipment, funding research and supporting public health systems, and putting in place effective modalities for delivering relief to the neediest.

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