The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, was established in 1960, with five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. OPEC’s primary objective was to unify petroleum policies and secure fair prices for its member countries, which has since expanded to include 13 core members. According to current estimates, 80.4% of the world’s proven oil reserves are located in OPEC Member Countries, with the bulk of OPEC oil reserves in the Middle east, amounting to 67.1% of the OPEC total.1 Central to OPEC’s power is its ability to leverage its collective influence to manipulate global supply and demand dynamics, thereby influencing prices. Reductions in production create market scarcity, driving prices upward, while increases result in a surplus, leading to price decreases. Decisions on production quotas are made during OPEC meetings, where member nations negotiate and coordinate their strategies. 

The United States is on the cliff of its third energy revolution in 100 years. 

Up to this point, renewables have only played a minor role in US power generation; in order to fulfill the promises of a net-zero emissions scenario by 2030, 2040, or 2050…wherever the target is now! 

The shift from a fuel-intensive to a material-intensive energy system powered by renewables will rely on a supply chain for critical minerals and rare earth metals controlled by only a handful of countries. 

Where is this fuel coming from?

The materials necessary for our smart phones, high technology devices, consumer and industrial batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, all require the metals and rare earth elements whose supply is currently controlled by a small group of countries, led by China.

China has emerged as a dominant force in the processing of these raw materials into usable forms, driven by domestic resource availability, cost-effective labor, and advanced processing technologies. An underlying reason for China’s preeminence is the hesitation of many countries to engage in environmentally impactful processing activities associated with critical minerals. The processing journey from raw materials to refined forms involves extraction, beneficiation, smelting, and refining; processes that generate waste, release pollutants, and have adverse ecological effects on the environment. China’s willingness to engage in processing activities, albeit with varying environmental standards, has allowed it to become a global bottleneck in the green-energy metal supply chain.

This bottleneck extends to both processed raw materials and finished goods (wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and battery energy storage systems) contributing to China’s dominance in the sector. As the world strives for renewable energy solutions, the reliance on China for processing and manufacturing introduces potential vulnerabilities in supply chains, affecting availability and affordability.

Where are the clean-energy technologies manufactured?

Answer: China

To recap, China controls a portion of the mine supply, a significant majority of the processing, and an even more significant majority of the manufacturing of clean-energy technologies. They are vertically integrated; a term that describes a business strategy in bodog poker review which a company owns or controls different stages of the supply chain of a product or service.

So what will the largest consumers of renewables and clean-energy technologies, the US & Europe, do if China decides to turn off the spout for say, a raw material…we’re about to find out. 

On July 4th (of all days) China announced a curb on exports of Gallium and Germanium, two of the rare earth elements critical to chipmaking and electronics. 

It’s not just a China problem…the risk of a new OPEC is real.

Argentina and Chile has the world’s second- and third-largest reserves of Lithium, respectively. Those countries, along with their neighbor Bolivia, make up the “Lithium Triangle”. The US imports roughly 91% of its lithium from the Lithium Triangle, primarily Chile. 

At the end of April 2023, Chile’s President announced the nationalization of its lithium reserves, which could signal the imminent rise of protectionist measures on a global scale, with a focus on these core green energy metals and rare earths. Our reliance on lithium is set to grow even further. Recently, MIT scientists created a solid-state lithium battery that surpasses the performance of current battery technologies5. As newer technologies demand even greater quantities of lithium, the US is likely to accept the nationalization of, and its short- to medium-term dependence on, Chilean lithium, while exploring alternative sources in countries with more favorable business environments. 

As the world accelerates its shift towards renewable energy, the concentration of green-energy metal reserves and processing capabilities in a limited group of countries raises concerns about pricing power and supply chain resilience; this could give rise to a new cartel of metal exporting countries, OMEC. 

The United States, Europe, and other developed nations, as major consumers of these materials, will have to deal with this group…but it’s likely that China will be setting the price for now. 

To read the full insight, please click here.

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At the core of the EU’s response is the RePowerEU scheme, which aims to address all three concerns simultaneously. Announced in mid-May, RePowerEU, along with existing components of the European Green Deal, presents a generational opportunity for businesses across the Atlantic to engage with European governments, from the EU to the local level, to build a new energy ecosystem, rooted in energy independence and renewables. At the core of the package is a contradiction: the need to support short-term investment in fossil fuels to mitigate rising prices and the effects of sanctions and the need to speed up long-term investment in renewables. The extent to which the package leans towards the former or latter will likely be the subject of much debate as it turns to implementation.

Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have already expressed their discontent with the European Commission’s proposal to include financing for new oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. The package is also tangled in a debate in the European Parliament over reforms to the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), a sort of cap-and-trade scheme, with criticism of the Commission’s plan to fund RePowerEU by selling more carbon credits. While the proceeds would be mostly used to fund new renewable energy projects, the effective outcome would be to increase Europe’s total carbon emissions in the short run.

To read the full report by the Albright Stonebridge Group, please click here.

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Source: Chepeliev et al. (2022).

Source: Ruta et al. (2022).

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Widely ignored, although gaining attention, is China’s strategic positioning as a crucial gatekeeper to several key “green” technologies, including battery energy storage to support electric vehicles (EVs)—specifically, battery electric vehicles (BEVs)—along with stationary storage for power grids. China also dominates in other technologies including wind and solar components, controls, sensors, and communications—a gamut of industrial equipment, including much that is pertinent for defense. BEV designs have come to dominate the energy transition strategies of many governments along with those of large automakers and startups, since BEVs are regarded as providing the maximum reduction in tailpipe emissions. Having little of its own capacity for manufacturing traditional vehicles, and being a large (and growing) net importer of oil, natural gas, and petroleum products, China’s government and business elites have emphasized EV designs and production.

China’s powerful model of economic soft power has crept into commodity warehouses, EV factories, and everything in between, granting Chinese entities significant control over several links of these critical supply chains. In an era of unparalleled geopolitical friction, how China’s dominance will affect emissions reduction goals in places like the United States and Europe remains to be seen. Reports of human rights abuses in Xinjian and the political status of Hong Kong and Taiwan are key issues that close the door for cooperation with China on climate change. Thus, the success of EVs, much less anything else in the energy transition hopper, cannot be divorced from the geopolitics of the day. China’s inordinate influence over natural resource-producing and -exporting countries could translate to leverage in its revisionist power plays.

Accompanying the vigorous drive toward alternative energy technologies is the unavoidable pressure on the global supply of critical base metals. Nickel is no exception. In our report and case study we examine tensions in nickel supply and value chains within the context of broad aspirations to electrify transport.

To read the full report from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, please click here. 

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Unfortunately, such action has been lacking since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. The health of the global energy innovation system is anemic, far from the robust condition the world needs it to be in.

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Steelmaking uses coal both as a source of heat and as part of the chemical process of converting iron ore to elemental iron. Both of these uses produce carbon dioxide. Eliminating CO₂ emissions from steelmaking requires a change in process. Using hydrogen as the heat source and the chemical reducing agent can eliminate CO₂ emissions, or carbon capture can remove them. Steel can also be recycled without CO₂ emissions, but demand for steel is too large to be met with recycled steel alone.

Cement production also releases CO₂ as part of the chemical process, in this case when limestone is heated to very high temperature to produce calcium oxide “clinker,” the cement’s primary component. Other substances can be mixed with clinker while still maintaining cement quality, but the primary method of decarbonizing the sector is to capture the CO₂ and store or find a use for it.

The chemical industry is different from the other two, encompassing many thousands of processes and products. However, more than 90% of “organic,” or carbon-containing, chemicals are derived from just a few building blocks, which are produced in large quantities and traded internationally. The chemical industry is also unique in that it uses coal, oil, and natural gas as feedstocks that are transformed into final products, not just sources of energy. Fossil fuels will likely still be feedstocks in a zero-carbon world, with process electrification and zero-carbon hydrogen as methods of removing CO₂ emissions. Ammonia is crucial for fertilizer and although it does not contain carbon, hydrogen needed for its production is today made from natural gas, with carbon dioxide as a by-product.

To read the full report from the Brookings Institute, please click here.

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