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A brighter outlook but recovery will be gradual

Faster vaccine deployment and better cooperation for its distribution would boost confidence and strengthen the pickup but continued uncertainty risks further weakness

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I. The first section provides a snapshot of the importance of trade in the economy – the economy’s ranking in world merchandise trade and trade in commercial services.

II. The second section is dedicated to Merchandise Trade indicators (customs-based statistics) – information on total trade flows broken down by broad product category and major origins and destinations. This section provides statistics on top exported and imported agricultural and nonagricultural products at the HS 4-digit level according to the definitions of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture and WTO Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA products).

III. The third section deals with Trade in Commercial Services – information on total trade flows (Balance of Payments based statistics) broken down by main service item and major origins and destinations. It also contains information on inward and outward FATS sales. This section provides detailed trade statistics for transport, including its breakdown by mode of transport, travel, other commercial services and goodsrelated services.

IV. The fourth and last section covers Industrial Property Indicators – annual number of applications for patents, trademarks, and industrial designs in the name of residents and non-residents of the reporting economy.

To download the full report, please click here.

Published by the World Trade Organization
© World Trade Organization 2020

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This report provides GTIPA members’ perspectives on their nations’ three most-significant trade priorities for the year ahead. This document aims to deliver a succinct snapshot of what to expect in the coming year regarding trade policy priorities for these countries. The volume compiles briefs from Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Italy, the Philippines, Poland, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also offers specific examples and recommendations that countries can seek to adopt to advance their trade policy agendas.

As stated in GTIPA’s Shared Statement of Principles, trade and cross-border investment are key drivers of global growth, which play a central role in increasing the social and economic prosperity of citizens worldwide. Whether it comes to improving health, protecting the environment, or ensuring Internet connectivity, trade in goods, service, and data enable countries’ GDP growth and improvements in quality of life and standards of living. If crafted effectively, trade policies can attract both foreign and domestic investment, spur innovation, foster competitiveness, and increase access to broader global markets.

The trade policy priorities of the countries listed in this report can be grouped as follows:

1. Promoting trade openness.

2. Bolstering programs to help exporters/importers.

3. Tending to domestic concerns/priorities.

4. Enhancing multilateralism and the global trade order.

5. Addressing country-specific trade priorities (such as with regard to the United States or China).

On the first topic, almost every country listed expanding trade agreements as a priority for the year ahead. From ratifying the CPTPP in Chile (and encouraging the United States to accede to it), to joining the AfCFTA in South Africa, to leading an open-market orientation in Germany, to confirming an agreement with the EU in Argentina, countries here reiterate their interest in deepening trade ties and taking advantage of the benefits afforded by free-trade mechanisms.

In the same context, efforts to help exporters and importers are also at the top of the list. The UK and Colombia support unilateral tariff liberalization, with Colombia expanding it to curtailing non-tariff barriers as well. Diving deeper into Latin America, Argentina proposes reducing withholding taxes on exports of goods and services, while Chile eyes diversifying its destination markets for exporters and  helping its firms identify new opportunities to export into international markets.

The report also includes policies focused on domestic considerations. For instance, Bangladesh proposes diversifying into new products and improving its labor-market conditions. Chile roots for modernizing its infrastructure and commercial offices, while Poland seeks to refurbish its trade diplomacy apparatus. Italy and the Philippines bet on strengthening their MSME and startup ecosystems. Lastly, South Africa registers protecting its investment act and securing property rights.

In addition, enhancing global trade regimes also occupies a key spot among next year’s priorities. Italy and the UK would seek new opportunities to enhance multilateralism and plurilateralism. The U.S. submission focuses on reforming its strategic trade engagement with the WTO and with like-minded trade partners, as well as building a global digital trade framework through new trade policies and agreements. From a regional perspective, Poland and Italy raise the issue of the Digital Single Market and barriers to services trade within the EU.

Lastly, European nations such as Germany and Italy list confronting U.S. protectionist policies while containing China’s aggressive trade policies as strategic priorities for the year ahead. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections, the America-first approach and the China threat remain top-of-mind for countries from the old continent. Affected by Brexit, the UK would seek opening avenues with the United States via a bilateral agreement. It’s worth mentioning that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic underpin every issue highlighted in this report.

Most importantly, this series of briefs is intended to help global trade policymakers identify issues affecting countries’ economic growth potential and to help them anticipate trends, adapt to changing legislation or regulatory frameworks, and promote common causes across countries.

To download the full report, please click here.

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Global output collapsed in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, with declines of more than one-fifth in some advanced and emerging-market economies. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies, the contraction in output would have been substantially larger. Output picked up swiftly following the easing of confinement measures and the initial re-opening of businesses, but the pace of the global recovery has lost some momentum over the summer months.

• Household spending on many durable goods has bounced back relatively quickly, but spending on services, especially those requiring close proximity between workers and consumers or international travel, has remained subdued.
• Hours worked have fallen significantly everywhere, but government support schemes have helped to maintain household incomes.
• Corporate investment and international trade remain weak, holding back the pick-up in manufacturing production in many export-oriented economies.

The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty and projections are dependent on assumptions about the spread of the COVID-19 virus and policy developments.

• The projections assume that sporadic local outbreaks will continue, with these being addressed by targeted local interventions rather than national lockdowns; a vaccination is assumed not to become widely available until late in 2021. 
• Global GDP is projected to decline by 4½ per cent this year, before picking up by 5% in 2021. The drop in global output in 2020 is smaller than expected, though still unprecedented in recent history, but this masks considerable differences across countries, with upward revisions in China, the United States and Europe, but weaker-than-expected outcomes in India, Mexico and South Africa. 
• In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic. 
• If the threat from the coronavirus fades more quickly than expected, improved confidence could boost global activity significantly in 2021. However, a stronger resurgence of the virus, or more stringent containment measures, could cut 2-3 percentage points from global growth in 2021, with higher unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.

Fiscal, monetary and structural policy support needs to be maintained to preserve confidence and limit uncertainty, but evolve with underlying economic conditions. 

• Many central banks have appropriately announced further policy easing in the past three months and changes in policy frameworks are being rightly introduced to convince investors that policy rates will be kept low for a long time. 
• Fiscal policy support needs to be pursued in 2021 and recent announcements in many countries of additional fiscal measures are welcome; the aim must be to avoid premature budgetary tightening at a time when economies are still fragile. 
• The maintenance of strong fiscal support should not prevent necessary adjustments to key emergency programmes – including job retention schemes, and income support measures – to limit long-lasting costs from the crisis and encourage the needed reallocation of resources towards expanding sectors. 
• Enhanced global co-operation to maintain open borders and the free flow of trade, investment and medical equipment is essential to mitigate and suppress the virus in all parts of the world and speed up the economic recovery.

To download the full report, please click here

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