The COVID-19 pandemic and associated global recession have had a devastating effect on international trade. In the second quarter of 2020, global trade was down 18.5 percent, a far sharper drop than was seen for GDP. Much of the economic activity that continues in a pandemic— health services, housing services, utilities—is not traded internationally, while the widely traded goods such as cars, electronics, and tourism are cut back as people face an uncertain future. The COVID-19 pandemic comes on top of other issues that were already affecting trade, notably Industry 4.0—the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies, including cyberphysical systems, the internet of things, cloud computing, and smart factories. In the years before the pandemic, merchandise trade was increasing less rapidly than world GDP, breaking a long-standing pattern, though trade in services was rising more rapidly. The declining importance of merchandise trade probably reflected both Industry 4.0 as well as the U.S.-China trade war.

The main question addressed in this essay is, what is the likely evolution of supply chains and international trade in the medium to long run after the COVID-19 pandemic? In other words, once the global economy recovers from the cyclical downturn, are there likely to be permanent changes in global trade? Will these create a more difficult environment for development? What policies at the national and international level can mitigate effects that harm development? These are naturally highly speculative questions, but by thinking of them now, we can potentially mitigate the worst long-run Bodog Poker effects of this crisis on development. 

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David Dollar is a Senior Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution.

Copyright 2020 The Brookings Institution

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Global output collapsed in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, with declines of more than one-fifth in some advanced and emerging-market economies. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies, the contraction in output would have been substantially larger. Output picked up swiftly following the easing of confinement measures and the initial re-opening of businesses, but the pace of the global recovery has lost some momentum over the summer months.

• Household spending on many durable goods has bounced back relatively quickly, but spending on services, especially those requiring close proximity between workers and consumers or international travel, has remained subdued.
• Hours worked have fallen significantly everywhere, but government support schemes have helped to maintain household incomes.
• Corporate investment and international trade remain weak, holding back the pick-up in manufacturing production in many export-oriented economies.

The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty and projections are dependent on assumptions about the spread of the COVID-19 virus and policy developments.

• The projections assume that sporadic local outbreaks will continue, with these being addressed by targeted local interventions rather than national lockdowns; a vaccination is assumed not to become widely available until late in 2021. 
• Global GDP is projected to decline by 4½ per cent this year, before picking up by 5% in 2021. The drop in global output in 2020 is smaller than expected, though still unprecedented in recent history, but this masks considerable differences bodog online casino across countries, with upward revisions in China, the United States and Europe, but weaker-than-expected outcomes in India, Mexico and South Africa. 
• In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic. 
• If the threat from the coronavirus fades more quickly than expected, improved confidence could boost global activity significantly in 2021. However, a stronger resurgence of the virus, or more stringent containment measures, could cut 2-3 percentage points from global growth in 2021, with higher unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.

Fiscal, monetary and structural policy support needs to be maintained to preserve confidence and limit uncertainty, but evolve with underlying economic conditions. 

• Many central banks have appropriately announced further policy easing in the past three months and changes in policy frameworks are being rightly introduced to convince investors that policy rates will be kept low for a long time. 
• Fiscal policy support needs to be pursued in 2021 and recent announcements in many countries of additional fiscal measures are welcome; the aim must be to avoid premature budgetary tightening at a time when economies are still fragile. 
• The maintenance of strong fiscal support should not prevent necessary adjustments to key emergency programmes – including job retention schemes, and income support measures – to limit long-lasting costs from the crisis and encourage the needed reallocation of resources towards expanding sectors. 
• Enhanced global co-operation to maintain open borders and the free flow of trade, investment and medical equipment is essential to mitigate and suppress the virus in all parts of the world and bodog poker review speed up the economic recovery.

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In light of the coronavirus pandemic slowing down worldwide economic activity in the spring of 2020, it is not clear at this time whether a structural break in globalization will occur and whether we are facing the onset of a phase of deglobalization. Since data for the year of 2020 are not available yet, any statements on the influence of the pandemic on globalization in the countries analyzed are in part speculative. However, initial calculations for Germany at the end of Chapter 3 suggest that the impact of the pandemic on the globalization-induced growth of gross domestic product per capita may well be considerable at the current margin of the analysis period.

Analyses of historical data on global trade interrelations also permit an assessment of which of the 45 countries are expected to be more strongly affected by a pandemic related decline in globalization. Due to this, Chapter 3 presents a foreign trade dependency index to reflect the potential economic impact of countries in the face of a global crisis such as the coronavirus pandemic. Comparison to the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 also presents plausibility of the dependency index as an indicator of the decline in economic performance due to global crisis. 

On top of this, well-structured fact sheets are provided for each of the 45 countries, summarizing the key findings of the Globalization Report for the individual countries at a glance.

To download the full report, please click here.

© Bertelsmann Stiftung 2020

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