bodog online casino Introduction

In 2019, Congressional Democrats announced the creation of a new tool—the facility-specific Rapid Response Labor Mechanism (RRM)—in the revised North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), known in the United States as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The tool allows a government to take action against a worksite in the territory of another if it believes that workers are being denied their right to organize and bargain collectively. Proponents saw its inclusion as the primary reason for the broad bipartisan support the USMCA garnered. They proclaimed the commencement of a new era for trade and an important step forward for progressives—who had been increasingly critical of US trade agreements—as even organized labor in the United States supported the USMCA.

This paper investigates bodog casino the RRM and is organized as follows. Section 2 begins with the perfect storm of political-economic events in the United States and Mexico that allowed the countries to agree to this unique tool. It describes the importance of the North American automotive supply chain, a sector that largely drove the Trump administration’s renegotiation of the NAFTA—over the sector’s protests—and that became the target for almost all early uses of the RRM.

Section 3 reviews the underlying problem the RRM is purportedly designed to tackle: the inability of Mexican workers to unionize and bargain collectively to overcome monopsony power. It explains the importance of Mexico’s labor reform to the renegotiation of the NAFTA and to the first few years of the USMCA, a reform process that policymakers could ultimately use the RRM to support.

bodog poker review Section 4 describes how the RRM works and analyzes the penalties the RRM sets out that may incentivize actors in Mexico that otherwise may be reluctant to go along with the labor reforms. It also documents the considerable financial and human resources the US and Mexican governments have deployed to operationalize the RRM and complement the Mexican government’s own efforts on labor reform. To the extent that the RRM improves political support for open trade between the two countries, the tool and these expenditures share some similarities with policies of trade facilitation.

Section 5 presents some stylized facts on the RRM during its first three years. The RRM started slowly, with the US government investigating situations at just 10 different facilities in Mexico in this period. Unsurprisingly, most of these investigations bodog casino were of the automotive sector. Nevertheless, there were some interesting and important differences across the situations.

The last two sections look to the future. Section 6 turns to the political-economic literature on trade agreements and issue linkages and proposes additional research needed to understand the implications of the RRM, including the need to assess its impact on workers and Mexican suppliers at facilities affected and unaffected by RRM situations. Section 7 draws lessons learned so far and examines the potential for transposing facility-specific RRM– like structures for labor or other areas, such as the environment, into future economic agreements.

Chad P. Bown is Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Kathleen Claussen is Professor of Law at Georgetown University Law Center.

bodog online casino To read the full summary as it was published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, click here.

To read the full paper, click here. 

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But where does this leave Canada?

In a new MLI commentary titled “Expanding Opportunities for Canada-US Coordination on China,” Ryan Hass takes stock of how this change in US leadership represents an opportunity for Washington and Ottawa to act on a shared agenda with respect to China.

“As one of America’s most valued friends and trusted partners, Canada will have an outsized role in helping Washington identify what Chinese actions should be prioritized for pushback,” argues Hass.

America’s approach to China focuses on rebuilding leverage by investing in alliances, reestablishing US leadership on the world stage, and more. With a less combative and more trusted partner in Washington, Canada has even greater opportunities to finally match our foreign policy to our interests vis-à-vis China.

Hass finds that there is considerable common ground and political appetite on both sides of the border for cooperation on a number of issues related to China, including “human rights concerns, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, problematic Chinese economic practices, maritime issues, and concerns relating to Chinese efforts to act extraterritorially.”

This commentary represents the first in a series of policy briefs under MLI’s Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative, which will examine the crucial role played by the Indo-Pacific and lay out the challenges facing Canadian policy-makers as they assess our strategic interests in the region.

“This important new project will look at this pivotal region which has become a centre of geoeconomic and geostrategic gravity. Indeed, the true litmus test for the rules-based order will be its ability to evolve and withstand the challenges in the Indo-Pacific in the coming years,” notes MLI Program Director Jonathan Berkshire Miller in a primer outlining the major themes and goals in this series of publications.

“China’s increasing assertive posture in the maritime realm is of deep concern, in addition to its predatory lending practices and coercive diplomacy. As Canada looks to develop its approach to the region, managing the challenge posed by Chinese activities is a significant – but not all encompassing – consideration.”

To learn more about China’s strategic competition and the role that Canada has to play, read the full commentary here.

Find out more about the Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative here, or read the briefing primer on this publication series here.

***

Ryan Hass is a senior fellow and the Michael H. Armacost Chair in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. He is also the Interim Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies.

To view the original research by The Macdonald-Laurier Institute, please click here. 

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LDC exports to Canada in 2017 represented just under $4 billion, around one per cent of total Canadian imports (or, more colloquially, about two hours of Canada-U.S. trade.) Their importance lies in their sector specificity; the majority of manufactured exports are apparel. After the 2003 liberalization, Bangladesh and Cambodia became the second and third largest suppliers of apparel to Canada after China, as much an achievement in import diversification for Canada as in export growth for Bangladesh and Cambodia.

Between 2003 and 2017, Bangladesh’s year-over-year exports to Canada grew at an average rate of 22 per cent, Cambodia’s at 58 per cent, Laos at 17 per cent and Nepal at 10 per cent. On the other hand, Canada’s exports to Bangladesh grew six-fold between 2004 and 2018. Bangladesh is now Canada’s fourth largest importer of pulses.

The 2003 market opening was enabled by of a GATT/WTO rule that facilitates preferential arrangements for countries on the United Nations’ Least Developed Countries list; effectively, the world’s poorest countries. Canada’s initiative was a near-impeccable preferential arrangement. It grew trade in both directions between Canada and some low-cost exporters without the bother of negotiations for bilateral free trade agreements, and without significant trade diversion. Together with the EU liberalization (and subsequent liberalizations in several other countries), it contributed to both export-led growth and poverty reduction in some least developed countries.

Canada’s relationship with these LDCs could change shortly. Along with six developing island countries and mineral-rich Angola, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos and Nepal are scheduled for graduation from the UN/WTO list of least developed countries (three were eligible as far back as 2018), and Cambodia has begun to meet the criteria for graduation. Graduation could mean the loss of the preferential tariff treatment that contributed to a rapid increase in exports in the last 17 years. Of the countries that are about to graduate, or have been graduated, the developing island countries export very little to Canada. Angola’s mineral exports enter duty free anyway, but the remaining countries – Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos, Nepal and at some point Cambodia – are now heavily integrated into the Canadian apparel market. Apparel has become the primary manufactured export for most of these countries. Graduation therefore could have consequences for Canadian consumers, and for economic growth and poverty reduction in the countries concerned. Later, we discuss this problem specifically with reference to Bangladesh.

The earliest date for graduation is 2021; the latest date so far is 2024. Canada may agree to Bangladesh’s request for a three-year deferral from 2021, particularly in light of COVID-19’s impact on the economy, or it could follow the EU, which is reportedly considering a phased-in graduation process of three years, 2021-2024. If LDCs graduate, they will be subject to the tariffs and rules of origin of Canada’s General Preferential Tariff (GPT). Graduation is not restricted to Canada and the EU. During the World Trade Organization’s Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members offered similar concessions; graduation from the LDC list will require WTO members to consider whether to extend or terminate preferential treatment for the graduating LDCs.

Canada can continue duty-free treatment – to grandfather the zero tariff and maintain LDC treatment for as long as it deems desirable. It is also in Canada’s interests to do so; the relationship with the Asian LDCs has been a win-win for both sides. Graduation could cost Canadian consumers and exporters alike and if both the EU and Canada graduate these countries, it could stall economic growth and poverty reduction efforts in the LDCs.

This paper maintains that while COVID-19’s impact makes a short-term deferral likely, it makes more sense to look long term at both the trade and development implications of graduation for both Canada and the LDCs. It recommends that Canada continue preferential treatment for an extended period of time or simply leave the low tariffs in place.

Fauzya Moore is an Ottawa-based consultant and writer. She has worked as a Senior
Economic Advisor at the various iterations of Global Affairs Canada, and also as a Senior Advisor on Governance at the Treasury Board of Canada. She is also a graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School (2009) where she held both a Fulbright scholarship and a fellowship from the Ash Centre for Governance and Innovation. She has worked in both the developed and developing world.

To download the full report, please click here.

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U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 are projected at $152.0 billion, up $11.5 billion from the August forecast, driven by higher soybean and corn export values. The projection for soybean exports is up $5.9 billion to a record $26.3 billion due to higher unit values, strong demand from China, and record volumes. Corn exports are forecast up $4.2 billion to $13.2 billion as a result of reduced competition, higher unit values and record volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $300 million to $5.3 billion based on higher unit values. Wheat exports are projected at $6.2 billion, up $200 million, on higher unit values and slightly larger volumes. Overall major agricultural bulk commodity exports are forecast to increase 24 percent from the previous projection. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast unchanged at $32.3 billion, as lower exports of pork and hides and skins offset increases in beef and poultry. Horticultural exports are forecast down $500 million to $34.5 billion due to expected decreases in miscellaneous products. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at a record $27.0 billion, an increase of $8.5 billion, largely due to strong soybean and corn demand. China is expected to once again become the largest U.S. agricultural market, a position it last held in FY 2017.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are forecast at $137.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the August forecast, led by expected increases in horticultural products. Horticultural imports are forecast up $400 million to $70.2 billion on increases in fresh fruit and vegetable imports.

Economic Recovery and Uncertainty in 2021

The global COVID-19 pandemic has already inflicted major setbacks to countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) around the world. Expectations of real GDP numbers have improved from the initial lockdown contractions, but recovery forecasts are still marked by uncertainty and prone to future setbacks. Several promising vaccine developments have provided increased optimism, pushing global equity markets higher and adding to hopes that GDP growth may return strong in 2021. Overall, global real GDP growth is expected to fall by about 4.4 percent in 2020. This is slightly less severe than was previously feared back in June. Global trade volume, which declined 9.2 percent in FY 2020, is expected to increase 7.2 percent in FY 2021. The expected economic recovery in 2021 will be shaped by both regional and overall global success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to boosting consumer spending.

Despite upward revisions to 2021 growth projections, projected real GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Economic recoveries will be dependent on the status of the pandemic and public health initiatives, including the successful distribution of vaccines. The U.S. economy contracts by 4.3 percent in 2020, with optimism for a recovery of 3.1 percent growth in 2021. The Eurozone economy declines by a more severe 8.3 percent in 2020, leading to a larger correction and a greater projected 2021 real GDP growth rate of 5.2 percent. The service-sector-dependent advanced economies continue to face enormous challenges imposed by the pandemic. Declines in consumer spending in recreation, food services, and travel account for most consumer demand declines. Savings rates continue to remain above pre-pandemic levels, signaling cautious consumer sentiment. The high savings rates hold potential for a large and swift economic recovery next year.

Real GDP in North America grows by a projected 3.3 percent in 2021 after a contraction of 4.9 percent in 2020. Canada and Mexico experience significant GDP declines in 2020, down 7.1 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively. These larger contractions factor into the larger rebounds forecast for 2021. Canada grows by 5.2 percent and Mexico by 3.5 percent.

South American real GDP collectively declines by 8.1 percent in 2020, with a 3.6 percent growth rate in 2021. Having faced negative GDP growth just prior to the pandemic, Argentina is expected to have real GDP decline by 11.8 percent in 2020. This substantial contraction allows ample room for future growth. Numerous recent policy changes help Argentina to grow by 4.9 percent in 2021. Experiencing notably weaker growth than recent years in the wake of the pandemic, China is expected to have real GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2020. In 2021, China’s growth rate returns to previous trend levels and grows at a rate of 8.2 percent. This return to large growth is dependent on many variables, including public health conditions, which have reduced consumer sentiment and caused the recovery of retail sales to lag the rest of the economy. Industrial production has and will continue to support China’s economic trajectory, but its success is also conditional on the recovery of its trading partners. Japan will improve from a 5.3 percent decline in GDP in 2020 to 2.3 percent growth in 2021. South Korea will improve from a decrease in GDP of 1.9 percent in 2020 to 2.9 percent growth in 2021.

Forecast reductions in tax revenue present additional challenges for rising debt levels due to pandemic-related fiscal spending across the globe. Governments reliant on high oil prices for financing public expenditures are expected to face tighter budgets going forward. International financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, have responded to the financial pressures by stating an increased tolerance for higher public debt in the short-term, as well as temporary debt moratoriums. Relaxation of debt burdens will allow countries to respond to the crisis with fiscal policy; however, it could increase pressure to cut expenditures in the future.

These forecasts still hold an atypically large margin of error, particularly to the downside, since the forecasts rely on public health and economic variables that are difficult to predict. For example, the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook forecast includes a protracted recovery scenario due to difficulty containing the spread of the virus and a delayed release of a vaccine. In this scenario, they estimate global GDP is 3 percent lower in 2021 than in their baseline forecast. There is also greater uncertainty in these forecasts due to changes in consumer preferences and behavior, which have dramatically shifted from the pre-pandemic world. It is yet to be seen how many of these changes will persist in the future.

To read the full report, please click here.

Bart Kenner is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

Hui Jiang is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

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Many stakeholders have credited NAFTA with facilitating agricultural trade in North America by reducing tariffs and other market access barriers and by providing a stable and improved trading environment in the region. Studies conducted to estimate the incremental effect of USMCA indicate modest increases to regional trade in North America. For example, a study commissioned by the Farm Foundation estimated that USMCA would generate a net increase in annual U.S. agricultural exports to Canada of $450 million—about 1% of U.S. agricultural exports under NAFTA in 2017. Similarly, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) assessed that U.S. agricultural exports would likely increase 1.1% in year six of USMCA implementation compared to its 2017 baseline export levels. Another study, conducted by the International Monetary Fund, estimated small gains in regional trade from USMCA compared with NAFTA; with respect to agriculture, it found modest gains to the region, primarily benefiting Canada. 

A study by economists at the University of Georgia says that USMCA may lead to losses for Georgia’s small fruit and vegetable producers because of subsidized imports from Mexico. The study was limited in scope and did not examine the broader impact of USMCA on other agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, other states, or the effects at the national level for the three USMCA signatories.

Issues for Congress

Congress has an interest in the implementation of USMCA because of its constitutional authority over foreign commerce and its long-standing involvement in U.S. farm policy.

Regarding market access, Congress may monitor Canada’s implementation of its commitments regarding U.S. dairy products, poultry products, and eggs. Some Members of Congress have raised concerns that Canada’s dairy TRQ allocation may not be consistent with its commitments under USMCA.

Congress may also monitor the implementation of the various nontariff provisions that the three countries agreed to under USMCA, such as assurances by Canada and Mexico that they will provide the same treatment to U.S. proprietary food formula and alcoholic beverages as they provide to their domestic products. Some Members of Congress have raised concerns that Mexico has not taken actions to fulfill its commitments regarding improving access for U.S. cheeses and agricultural biotechnology products46 and that Canada is making insufficient progress toward a protocol to allow the registration of U.S. wheat varieties in Canada.

Efforts by the USMCA signatories to establish a coordinated approach for greater harmonization of SPS rules, rules governing trade in products created with agricultural biotechnology, and rules pertaining to geographical indications may also be of interest for congressional oversight. This subject has drawn the attention of some Members of Congress, who have suggested that USTR and USDA use the GI provisions in USMCA as a model for other trade agreements. 

USMCA has also expanded access for Canadian peanut butter, dairy, sugar, and sugar-containing products to the United States. Congress may monitor how this improved access to the U.S. market affects U.S. producers in these sectors and the U.S. rural economy more broadly.

Congress may also use its oversight and legislative authority to address the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on greater integration of the North American market. The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unexpected stresses on food supply chains, with bottlenecks in farm labor, processing, transport, and logistics, particularly in developing countries such as Mexico. According to a report by a market intelligence company, Mexico has faced logistics and transportation difficulties including shortages of shipping containers, which could affect Mexico’s ability to trade perishable and packaged food products with the United States.

To download the full report, please click here.

Anita Regmi is a Specialist in Agricultural Policy for the Congressional Research Service.

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Over the past seventeen years, exports from several LDCs to Canada have grown and diversified, changing the profile of Canada from a traditional market for unprocessed minerals and raw food to a destination for imports of low cost, labour intensive manufactured merchandise. Bangladesh and Cambodia now rank after China as highest exporters of apparel to Canada, several others show continued growth in exports to the Canadian market.

Canada supports the LDCs in many ways including a large military and development presence in Afghanistan, in rebuilding Haiti, in promoting economic growth in Bangladesh and Ethiopia and so on. Further reducing or eliminating tariffs on LDC exports, particularly for small exporters to Canada is an important part of this work, but it is often a forgotten issue.

Critics of the LDC liberalizations may argue that just a few LDCs benefitted; supporters will maintain that tariff reductions usually benefit just a few countries. Both are right; more could be done to help LDC exporters in the 47 LDCs take advantage of the Canadian market, which is now wide open to them. More could be done to enable small exporters and producers benefit from the LDCT.

But in the absence of multilateral initiatives to open advanced country markets to first tier manufactures from the poorest countries, and with the failure of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations, the results of the LDCT liberalizations are a credible, and important contribution to development through trade.

To download the full paper, please click here.

Fauzya Moore is an Ottawa-based consultant and writer, a graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School, and former senior advisor on trade and development in Canada’s Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.

© Fauzya Moore, 2020

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Worker rights are a prominent issue in U.S. FTA negotiations. Some stakeholders believe worker rights provisions are necessary to protect U.S. workers from perceived unfair competition and to raise labor standards abroad. Others believe these rights are more appropriately addressed at the International Labor Organization (ILO) or through cooperative efforts and capacity building. Since 1988, Congress has included worker rights as a principal negotiating objective in Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation. The United States has been in the forefront of using FTAs to promote core internationally recognized worker rights. Labor provisions have evolved significantly since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), moving from side agreements to integral chapters within FTA texts, with more provisions subject to enforcement. The conclusion of NAFTA renegotiations resulted in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaces NAFTA and has a new labor chapter and enforcement mechanism. USMCA entered into force in July 2020.

Issues for Congress

In considering future TPA legislation (the current reauthorization expires in July 2021) or trade negotiations, Congress may wish to examine the application of worker rights provisions in FTAs. This debate could include

• The effectiveness of FTAs as a vehicle for improving worker rights and labor standards in other countries;
• The extent to which FTA partners are complying with labor obligations and whether dispute settlement provisions have been applied effectively;
• Whether USMCA labor provisions serve as a new template for future U.S. FTAs;
• The effectiveness of FTAs in providing technical assistance and trade capacity building; and
• The role of businesses in promoting U.S. labor practices abroad and conducting supply chain due diligence.

Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs is an Analyst in International Trade and Finance at Congressional Research Service

M. Angeles Villarreal is a Specialist in International Trade and Finance at Congressional Research Service.

To download the full report, please click here

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The importance of digital policies has grown as countries seek to harness the tools of big data, artificial intelligence (AI), and vital infrastructure to trace outbreaks of the virus and assist efforts to find cures and vaccines. While digital tools are proving vital in efforts to track outbreaks and trace contacts, legitimate concerns are growing about potentially invasive government surveillance even after the virus retreats.

These policy areas—health, trade, and digital—overlap in the international, national, and local efforts to reduce the duration of the pandemic and mitigate its effects with respect to human lives and economic well-being.

The analysis in this paper, while initially conducted before anyone had ever heard of COVID-19, has been impacted by its sudden emergence and will likely require updating to assess the experiences of this ongoing crisis. The paper, which focuses on the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, concludes with a series of questions, as opposed to policy recommendations. This is due partly to the very complexity that all governments confront in mapping out digital policies given the ubiquitous role digital networks and devices play in our daily lives. But these questions may have even more tangible relevance now that COVID-19 is forcing a reckoning with a severe interruption in global economic growth, which could be on the scale of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Ultimately, the governments of India, the United States, and other nations will determine for themselves what answers are relevant to their individual circumstances.

Mark Linscott is a Nonresident Senior Fellow in the South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council. 

To view the original report, click here.

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