After decades of globalization and relative stability, the world is at a turning point. Amidst rising geopolitical tensions, shifting supply chains and states’ embrace of national industrial strategies, policy and corporate decision makers are facing a host of new, challenging questions concerning technologies, markets, and supply chains crucial to economic and national security. These critical and emerging technologies are increasingly and intimately intertwined with geopolitical frictions, if not at their core. Thus, it is important to recognize today’s unique challenges that require innovative thinking and approaches in technology governance to strengthen and build resilient supply chains that are prepared to withstand and can adapt to new geopolitical dynamics.

Interconnected global supply chains based around comparative advantage and lower labor costs linked through complex logistics have proven to be a key component of globalization. However, the interdependence between economies, and the reliance on even geopolitical rivals, has revealed downsides that go beyond pure economic and efficiency considerations. Disruptions, especially during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, have reinforced the need for states to assess risks across a variety of national industries and global market sectors. These domains range from critical food and medical supplies, to automotive, raw materials and other commodity markets, and especially high-tech supply chains, like in the semiconductor ecosystem. To address the issue of supply chain resilience, this assessment evaluates semiconductors as a case study and discusses the risks of disruptions to the supply chain and the measures governments across the globe have taken individually and collectively to strengthen this crucial industry.

Semiconductors, which underpin nearly all current and near-future technology applications in the commercial and military realms, are a key concern for nations’ economic, security, and foreign policies. Governments have chosen to manage dual-use technologies and their supply chains, including semiconductors, comprehensively through new export controls, tariffs, investment screening, and de-risking through investments, subsidies and international cooperation to mitigate risk from growing geopolitical friction. These efforts are primarily driven unilaterally, but collective action and cooperation will be pivotal to ensuring supply chain resilience moving forward for the United States and its allies and partners.

2. Semiconductor Ecosystem Primer

Designed for efficient operations rather than resiliency, semiconductor supply chains can be prone to disruption. To take advantage of massive economies of scale, clustering effects, and regional talent, components of chips can travel more than 25,000 miles and can cross more than 70 borders before reaching their final destination. At its heart, the semiconductor ecosystem consists of three primary phases – (1) design, (2) front-end fabrication, and (3) back-end assembly, testing and packaging. This is followed by systems integration of chips into products such as televisions, video game consoles, personal computers, and cell phones by adjacent industries for consumer goods, industrial goods, as well as defense and space industries. These phases are supported by core intellectual property (IP), electronic design automation (EDA) tools, and raw and processed material inputs, built with a series of sophisticated tools, and incorporate crucial subcomponents.

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The global supply chain is an ever-changing landscape, always looking to implement the most efficient and effective means to ensure products are sourced, manufactured and delivered as quickly and safely as possible. Many companies have relied on specific regions for sourcing and manufacturing over the decades, but a new survey indicates that the interest is at unprecedented levels. According to a QIMA survey, the appeal of shortened supply chains has reached a record high, with more than 64% of businesses globally expressing interest in nearshoring and reshoring strategies for 2024.

In 2023, a significant shift was already underway, with more than half of the surveyed participants reporting increased purchases from domestic and regional suppliers. This trend, driven by a desire to reduce disruptions, ensure greater supply chain resilience and underscore ESG initiatives, is set to gain even more momentum in the coming year.

While the United States has long relied on Chinese imports driven primarily by cost considerations, access to a large manufacturing base, the wide range of products available to manufacture/develop in the region, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties have prompted a reevaluation of this dependency, leading to a significant shift in supply chain dynamics. Even more so, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the massive dependency the West had on China and other South Eastern Asia countries.

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Concerns over trade disputes, tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to intensify, especially as the U.S. enters another high-profile election year. U.S.-based businesses continue to seek alternative sourcing destinations to diversify their supply chains and mitigate potential disruptions.

While some may view nearshoring and reshoring as protectionist measures, they present real opportunities to foster additional global economic growth, job creation and sustainability initiatives. Mexico has emerged as a preferred destination for these nearshoring and reshoring efforts, especially for U.S. companies seeking to optimize their supply chains.

In fact, the U.S. Commerce Department released data that reinforced Mexico as the top source for goods to the U.S., ahead of China for the first time in two decades.

The Chinese manufacturing industry has also recognized the importance of reshoring and the continued growth of Mexico’s manufacturing sector for U.S. companies. Mexico offers several advantages, including proximity to the U.S. market, favorable trade agreements like the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), and a skilled labor force at competitive costs.

Leveraging Mexico as an intermediary for Chinese manufacturing provides a buffer against escalating disputes and tariffs, ensuring continuity in supply chains and preserving market access for both exporters and importers. This strategic alignment fosters stability and facilitates smoother trade relations amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

From a supply chain perspective, this strategic shift holds several implications. For one, it reduces reliance on a single source of supply, enhancing resilience and risk management capabilities. By diversifying manufacturing locations, companies in all countries can better navigate geopolitical uncertainties, trade disruptions and unexpected events, such as natural disasters or political instability.

Additionally, the proximity of Mexico to the U.S. market offers logistical advantages, including shorter lead times, reduced transportation costs and increased agility in responding to changing consumer demand. This geographical strategy aligns with the growing trend toward nearshoring and regionalization of supply chains, driven by the need for speed, flexibility and responsiveness in today’s competitive business environment.

The strategic shift toward utilizing Mexico as a manufacturing hub for Chinese goods destined for the U.S. underscores the evolving dynamics of global supply chains. By diversifying sourcing destinations, businesses can enhance supply chain resilience and efficacy, navigate geopolitical unease and maintain seamless trade relationships amidst an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape.

Ivan Hernandez is managing director, Mexico, for QIMA, which provides quality control solutions for supply chains.

To read the full article as it was published by Supply Chain Management Review, click here.

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Global trade recovery remains fragile. Geopolitical tensions, spillover from regional conflicts, rising populism and protectionist policies are putting unprecedented pressure on globalisation.

The prospect of a complete breakdown in relations between the United States and China adds weight to any pessimism. Each day brings further threat — or the reality — of unilateral trade measures. While legitimate concerns may undergird these measures, such as climate considerations, the net effect is chipping away at governments’ faith in the global rules-based trading system. This is creating a vicious cycle of more barriers and more protectionism.

Global business priorities have not shifted since the WTO was founded 30 years ago. Cohesive, multilaterally agreed rules for international trade that provide certainty and predictability remain a fundamental demand from traders around the world.

The WTO, despite its flaws, has proven to be the single cohesive vehicle able to attract multilateral participation — from countries across the world at every stage of development — to address global trade challenges. The need for such an institution has grown with time. For example, effective multilateral dialogue at the WTO level bodog poker review is required to resolve the unintended consequences of novel environmental legislation, such as the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and new rules on deforestation, particularly as they affect small businesses in developing countries.

Against growing threats to the system, the urgency of reforming the WTO grows each day. Its rulebook must be updated to meet the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century — its rules enforced and its agreements effectively monitored. Reform must be tackled consistently with an eye towards lowering trade barriers and upholding current commitments. And this must be done in cooperation with the private sector.

The alternative to holistic reform is almost too awful to contemplate. An April 2024 an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)-commissioned study found that WTO dissolution would have dire consequences for developing economies, decimating their exports by 33 per cent and lowering GDP by 5.1 per cent by 2030.

In that scenario, the trade-led convergence that has enabled developing countries to grow their economies would disappear. This would also hit producers in advanced economies by reducing supplier access, exposing developed countries to increasing volatility and higher consumer prices.

Countries that do not enjoy elevated levels of integration into global supply chains would be further disadvantaged by any erosion of the multilateral trading system. Given the catalytic role of trade in job creation, the implications for global poverty reduction perspective would be profound.

In this age of digital innovation, the world has never been technically better placed to conduct trade more efficiently. Technology underpins all modern supply chains, including the internet of things, big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence. This shift to digital technology calls for the movement of data and information across borders, with all stakeholders depending on seamless and uninterrupted information flows across companies and countries.

To secure supply chain resilience and efficiency, governments must promote policy coherence and harmonised digital rules, increasing the urgency for robust WTO action. As a start, an agreement containing disciplines that will address digital trade barriers and facilitate digital trade must be reached and implemented at the WTO.

Work is already going into accelerating the development of a globally harmonised, digitalised trade environment. The ICC Digital Standards Initiative is engaging the public sector to progress regulatory and institutional reform, and mobilising the private sector on standards harmonisation, adoption and capacity building.

Trade facilitation remains key to functioning supply chains. Delays at borders hinder cross-border trade at every level, both regional and international. Full implementation of the 2017 WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement — which has already increased trade by over US$230 billion — is more relevant than ever.

Low and middle-income countries have come a long way in fulfilling their trade facilitation agreement commitments, but many still require assistance to finish the job. A failure to connect developing economies to global markets threatens to cut them further adrift, stifling economic opportunity and reversing previous gains. Likewise, lack of implementation undermines supply chain optimisation in these countries, hindering competitiveness.

To support low and middle-income countries in this endeavour, the ICC co-leads the Global Alliance for Trade Facilitation with the World Economic Forum and the Center for International Private Enterprise. With the support of the governments of the United States, Germany and Canada, this entity uses the trade facilitation agreement to address obstacles to trade in an inclusive, sustainable way through public–private partnership. The alliance approach to meaningful trade facilitation initiatives involves buy-in and ongoing engagement from both government and business, from project inception through to post-completion, recognising a shared responsibility in promoting frictionless trade.

This spirit of public­–private cooperation must be brought to bear against today’s drift away from agreement and adherence to international rules and regulations. The WTO remains the best conduit for multilateral trade cooperation and future initiatives hinge on its reform and strengthening. Business as the real engine of economic growth and innovation needs to be engaged as a genuine partner — one that delivers on the concept of multi-stakeholder cooperation.

John WH Denton AO is Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Paris.

To read the full article as it was published by East Asia Forum, click here.

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The missing link between AI and supply chain in Biden’s executive orders

The Biden administration has paid considerable attention to both global supply chains and AI. In 2023, President Biden signed two executive orders: one regarding governance and responsibility in AI development and another to improve supply chain resilience. In June 2023, the White House released a progress report to build resilient supply chains for four critical products: semiconductors, large-capacity batteries, critical minerals and materials, and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The development of resilient supply chains is a key component of Bidenomics. For this endeavor, Biden attained $52.7 billion from Congress through the CHIPS and Science Act. Later, in October 2023, the White House released a report summarizing President Biden’s executive order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AI. The order requires developers of powerful AI systems to meet certain safety standards before publicly releasing their solutions. Finally, President Biden announced in November 2023 the establishment of the new White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience to develop new capabilities to monitor existing and emerging risks and to detect and respond to supply chain disruptions in critical sectors with supply chain partners. Although these policies are promising, American policymakers have yet to address the inherent connection between AI development and supply chain resilience.

This trend is not limited to the United States. First proposed in 2021, the EU Parliament reached a provisional agreement with the Council on the EU AI Act in December 2023. The policy provides guidance for high-risk AI systems and breaks down responsibilities throughout the AI supply chain with requirements for importers, distributors, and other supply chain stakeholders.

The benefits of AI-enabled supply chain planning

AI has the potential to revolutionize supply chain operations by improving decision-making and efficiency. According to a 2022 McKinsey survey, respondents reported that the highest cost savings from AI are in supply chain management. Specifically, AI can add value to supply chain planning, including production, inventory management, and product distribution. Companies can also leverage AI-powered tools to process vast amounts of real-time data and improve the accuracy of demand forecasting. With more precise demand forecasts, AI-enabled tools can help firms optimize production and inventory plans across various locations and select the most cost-effective logistics solutions.

Early adopters of AI-enabled supply chain management have reduced logistics costs by 15 percent, improved inventory levels by 35 percent, and enhanced service levels by 65 percent. Adopting AI tools to manage manufacturing operations can be costly, but 70 percent of the respondents from a survey of CEOs of over 150 firms agreed that AI is delivering a “strong ROI.” Despite the potential of AI in supply chains, AI should not decrease employment in supply chain management. Rather, it should create new opportunities to mitigate potential risks associated with adopting new technologies.

The role of AI in mapping supply chains

AI can certainly make internal operations more efficient; this starts with achieving supply chain visibility (i.e., the ability to view and track inventory levels as goods move along the supply chain). Visibility would allow firms to respond to disruptions in real time. A 2021 survey revealed that only 2 percent of companies claimed to have visibility beyond their second-tier suppliers–those who supply materials and parts to their direct suppliers. Without strong visibility, company supply chains are susceptible to disruptions caused by issues such as natural disasters, pandemics, geopolitical issues, trade barriers, and product recalls. Therefore, firms should seek to leverage AI to enhance supply chain visibility.

Mapping the supply chain is a crucial step towards enhancing its resilience, and AI tools can provide substantial assistance in this regard. These tools can gather records like product orders, customs declarations, and freight bookings, which are often represented in various formats and languages. AI algorithms can extract relevant data from both structured and unstructured documents with high precision. AI tools can compile and synthesize this raw data, enabling a firm to map out its different supply chain tiers. For instance, Altana, an AI startup that creates dynamic maps of global supply chains, has developed a generative AI tool that utilizes both public and private data to map a company’s supply chain. This tool is complemented by a large language model (LLM)-informed assistant that responds to employees’ queries posed in plain language. Using document processing systems to capture, analyze, and share documents, such as invoices, bills of lading, and purchase orders, Altana can enhance efficiency and accuracy in logistics and improve communication among supply chain partners.

Using AI to detect changes in demand and supply

AI can also help firms gauge market demand and customer sentiment. Utilizing scanner data collected at point-of-sale locations, along with vast data from customer reviews and blog posts on social media, AI-based tools, such as Google’s Video AI can gather and analyze text, images, and videos. Google Video AI can then develop a real-time, end-to-end supply chain dashboard that can generate alerts for abnormal demand changes due to competition or product issues. The AI can even detect early signs of panic buying using large data sources. The Google Video AI dashboard can then pinpoint the underlying causes for such abnormalities.

In addition to real-time detection of demand changes, AI tools can compile and analyze data on traffic conditions at different supply chain tiers such as ports and warehouses. These tools can detect supply disruptions caused by supply and worker shortages, factory shutdowns, and shipping delays, among other issues. For instance, when ports on the West Coast faced unprecedented delays in September 2021, the US Department of Transportation developed a national transportation supply chain dashboard that tracked three key indicators of goods moving from ports to retail stores: the number of imported containers, US retail inventory levels, and the on-shelf availability of consumer goods. Tracking these indicators in real time offered the ability to detect and react to anomalous patterns as they occurred.

Using AI to design effective responses to supply chain disruption

A supply chain becomes more resilient when it can quickly detect and respond to disruptions, thereby minimizing the impact. According to the supply chain risk management literature, three capabilities are necessary to build resilience: (1) detecting a disruption quickly, (2) designing an effective solution in response to the disruption, and (3) deploying the solution swiftly. Traditionally, firms have ensured supply chain resilience by developing advanced systems to enhance detection, setting up proactive contingency plans, and conducting stress tests for rapid deployment. However, AI and Industry 4.0 technologies, such as sensors, blockchains, and data analytics, can amplify these resilience capabilities manyfold.

With the ability to detect abnormal changes in supply and demand, AI tools can help companies evaluate and compare the effectiveness of different response strategies by conducting simulations. These simulations assess the impact of each possible response on demand and supply as well as the recovery time from disruptions. By analyzing the simulated results and examining the effects of different responses on various supply chain partners, a firm can swiftly develop a well-informed strategy in response to a sudden change. Response strategies may involve modifications to product design, adjusting prices, and switching upstream suppliers. In terms of potential use cases, AI could help a government agency design a supply chain for medical countermeasures to defend against bio-attacks. Retail companies could use AI to simulate and predict the impact of implementing rationing policies in retail stores. More broadly, the goal is to evaluate alternative scenarios to ensure resilience against potential unforeseen disturbances and understand how mitigation strategies affect each part of the supply chain.

AI can help firms respond to crises, but importantly, it can also help companies strengthen supply chains before they are strained. AI can recommend changes to a company’s supply chain policies based on a multitude of factors, such as seasonality and macroeconomic trends. For instance, AI can identify the best supply chain configuration, the optimal number of suppliers (and their locations), and the most favorable terms of the supply chain contracts.

AI implications for employment and public policy

While AI holds immense potential for developing resilient supply chains, the Biden administration can coordinate with the European Union to mitigate various risks arising from AI-enabled global supply chains. Similar to how Biden has pursued responsible AI development in the United States, he should work with European regulators to ensure that the data with which LLMs are trained is sourced ethically and avoids copyright violations. Responsible AI development is key to the stability of supply chains, as AI becomes increasingly engrained in supply chain management.

Even with the help of American and European regulators, firms must manage certain risks through human involvement. AI-enabled supply chains will transform the role of supply chain professionals, eliminating jobs in clerical and data entry, but they will also create new jobs. The data used to train AI and AI-produced insights can be biased. Hence, humans must identify the most relevant data on which to train LLMs and ensure adherence to ethical guidelines. AI also does not always comprehend the contexts and nuances of global supply chains; humans must interpret and examine the appropriateness of AI-generated recommendations. Thus, new personnel, including research scientists, chatbot developers, AI ethics, and bias analysts, are necessary to develop resilient supply chains. Additionally, to manage increasingly complex supply chain operations amidst exceedingly complex geopolitical issues, the role of supply chain managers has never been more critical.

AI promises to disrupt industries, including justice, retail, marketing, transportation, media, and biosciences. Indeed, the World Economic Forum commented that the future of work is changing with bodog casino machines and AI likely to take on an increasing share of work. The interplay between AI and supply chain management, two critical sectors, is more important than ever to create economic stability and resiliency. However, the future is not as pessimistic as Elon Musk’s claim that AI will take most jobs away–at least not in supply chain management for the foreseeable future.

Maxime C. Cohen is the Scale AI Chair Professor of Retail and Operations Management at McGill University and a Visiting Professor at Yale School of Management.

Christopher S. Tang is a UCLA distinguished professor and the Edward W Carter Chair in business administration.

To read the full article published by Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, click here. 

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The Effects of Weather Disruptions on the Supply Chain

For many businesses, the supply chain is an international issue. Domestic interactions can be costly, so outsourcing labor and resources across the sea is often an unavoidable task. For example, flood-related damage in China has a huge effect on crop yield, forcing the country to face a hefty $25 billion economic blow. This means businesses in the Western Hemisphere that rely on Chinese agricultural exports may not be able to produce necessary items for grocery stores or, say, create holistic wellness items.

These types of events force businesses to look elsewhere for the materials, labor, and other areas of the supply chain they need to amend. For reference, let’s take a look at the restaurant industry. Climate change, among other factors like COVID-19, has given way to increased food costs. Essential items, like grain and meat, have risen in price. Avian flu and temporary price increases at the beginning of 2023 caused restaurants to eliminate a good portion of meat-based meals from their menus.

Supply issues like these mean employees are also not being offered wages in alignment with recent inflation and the rising demands of their jobs. This gives way to larger economic issues that can potentially restructure the way we do business globally.

How Extreme Weather Events Affect Transportation Costs

Climate change and extreme weather events don’t only affect things like food production. It plays a huge role in the cost of transportation. Transportation is a necessary part of doing business. You need a method of transferring resources to a processing plant and then the completed product to a warehouse where it is shipped to yet another location.

Ultimately, climate change affects multiple areas of transportation in the global market. Since burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change, it causes a cyclic effect on transportation costs. Extremely hot weather can affect the performance of oil refineries, which then causes a delay in fuel production, making gas prices higher.

Also, there is the matter of delivery fees, which affects both businesses and consumers. Consumers tend to foot the bill for delivery fees since it can be a huge financial blow for businesses to take care of this fee themselves. Unpredictable weather can affect air freight schedules, and unusual snowfall can prevent trucks from making deliveries in a timely manner. Evolving climate conditions force consumers to eventually pay more in delivery fees.

To lower transportation costs, businesses should consider using energy-efficient vehicles to stave off the growing fuel costs. Should this not be an option, you can also consider using a diesel delivery service, which ensures all trucks are receiving high-quality fuel on a set schedule.

Combating Climate Change

Though climate change isn’t something that can be altered by a single person or entity, businesses can still do their part to create a more sustainable global market through several strategies and innovative technologies.

First, consider optimizing your supply chain by staying local. Use local vendors to create a reserve inventory and try not to outsource a large portion of your business operations overseas. This will reduce fuel costs and benefit the local economy at the same time. Second, invest in sustainable technological practices. Using solar power for warehouses can have a significant impact on energy costs and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Agricultural industries can make adjustments to livestock handling as well to reduce negative environmental impact. Exploring lab-grown meat or creating an emphasis on plant-based meat alternatives for the restaurant and food industry can make a huge difference in issues like water pollution as well as toxic emissions.

Reducing your carbon footprint may not seem like the most cost-effective solution at first, but doing your part to combat climate change will only fare your business well in the long term. Consumers will be more apt to purchase your products or services if they see your practices are environmentally friendly. You will also end up financially benefiting from stable supply chain costs as climate change efforts increase.

The Big Picture

Eco-friendly business strategies are essential for increased performance and keeping costs stable across the board. Staying well-informed about sustainable supply chain practices and the location and environment of all areas of your business cannot be understated. At the end of the day, switching over to energy-efficient transportation options and investing in climate-friendly tech is just good for business – it provides a chance for future generations and industries to thrive.

To read the full article, click here.

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However, out of the blue on November 3, 2023, President Joe Biden convened the other APEP leaders to join him in the East Room of the White House for an inaugural “Leaders’ Summit of the Americas Partnership.”

Despite the manifest lack of progress on APEP, all but two of the invited leaders attended (the president of Panama was ill while Mexico was ably represented by its foreign minister). Remarkably, several left-leaning presidents (Gabriel Boric from Chile, Gustavo Petro from Colombia, and Mia Mottley from Barbados) heeded the last-minute call from the leader of the free world. Whatever may be said about declining U.S. power worldwide, in the Western Hemisphere most leaders still want to be seen with the U.S. president. Some still hope that regional diplomacy can yield beneficial results.

Not wanting to arouse the trade skeptics within the Democratic Party, the Biden White House has carefully steered away from initiatives that would further open U.S. markets to international commerce. But APEP could build upon the foundations of existing free trade agreements—primarily the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Accord (USMCA) and the Central America Trade Accord (CAFTA-DR). For these trading partners, the hot-button topic of trade liberalization had already been addressed. APEP could therefore focus on politically less sensitive but still economically vital matters such as building infrastructure, digitalizing customs, and promoting small-scale private businesses.

APEP could even address regional supply chains, couched less in terms of trade and investment and more in the language of national security and in promises of more secure, diverse, and resilient sources of supplies vital to U.S. industries.

APEP is primarily a sub-regional agreement, targeting the Greater Caribbean Basin. Absent FTAs with the United States, Brazil and Argentina—the two largest countries of South America—do not qualify. And APEP is limited to “friendly, trusted” nations that share democratic values; hence, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba are excluded. The invitation list also omitted the democracy backsliders of Central America’s Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras). Looking forward, however, APEP is open to countries that can meet its standards.

The Resurrection of APEP

In January of this year the United States and its APEP partners released a declaration labeled “The Americas Partnership”. Nevertheless, this disappointing text still lacked focus, action items, negotiating formats and timetables, and implementation guidelines. Within the U.S. government APEP lacked a resolute champion. Biden’s Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) remains in the hands officials who tend to perceive deepening globalization as inimical to the interests of U.S. workers and the middle-class.

Yet pressure was building for a renewed interest in APEP. Several U.S. Senators, including influential Democrats, urged the Biden administration to pay more attention to our neighbors to the South. Biden’s energetic special advisor for the Americas, former Senator Chris Dodd, persistently pressed the White House for greater presidential attention to the region.

And at a time of rising geopolitical tensions, the administration may have decided it would be wise to shore up support in our own near-abroad—much as President Franklin D. Roosevelt had done so successfully with his “Good Neighbor” policies on the eve of World War II.

Furthermore, the administration was intent on refining its early focus on strengthening the resilience of industrial supply chains. The initial thrust was “reshoring,” or building industrial capacity in the United States. But it became increasingly apparent that to be competitive, U.S.-based supply chains would require some components to be sourced overseas, where costs were lower and some necessary inputs including minerals were more abundant.

Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has become a vocal advocate of “friendshoring.” At a conference on regional investment hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank the day before the November 3 White House meeting, Yellen committed the United States “to support the region’s supply chain integration through comprehensive efforts.”

Regional Supply Chains: A New Glue of Inter-American Relations?

In expanding regional supply chains, the administration has initially focused on three strategic sectors: semiconductors, medical supplies (medical equipment and pharmaceuticals), and renewable sources of clean energy (including electric batteries). Beginning with semiconductors, the administration has certified three regional partners: Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama, and will likely add other friendly nations to this privileged list. Beyond the occasional ultra-high tech fabrication plant (“fabs”), regional participation in microprocessor supply chains can include design development, manufacturing electrical components, parts assembly and testing, and packaging and shipping.

The foundations for regional supply chains are already in place. Free trade accords (USMCA, CAFTA-DR, U.S. bilateral accords with Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Panama) have removed many barriers to trade and investment flows—the engines of regional “friendshoring”. And some countries are already integrated into select supply chains. For example, both Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic employ tens of thousands of workers producing medical instruments and pharmaceutical products for international brands.

More must be done, however, if nearshoring is to reach its potential to become a new glue of inter-American relations, especially for the Greater Caribbean Basin. Both the Latin American and Caribbean governments grouped in APEP, and the United States, must marshal the political will and financial resources to seize this moment of opportunity in regional development.

For regional partners, that means accelerating reforms across the business ecosystem. International investors seek lower, cleaner energy sources, world-class logistical systems, transparent regulations and standards, the rule of law, and perhaps most importantly, a skilled workforce. The multilateral development banks—the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF)—have the financial resources and technical know-how to assist in each of these tasks.

In deciding on locations for investment and trade, U.S. corporations will be driven by market forces. But they will also look to signals from the U.S. government. Which commercial partners are considered “friendly and trustworthy”? Where are U.S. government agencies, such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, placing their bets? Which countries are eligible for the new U.S. industrial policy incentives and subsidies orienting supply chain decisions?

The November 3 East Room APEP declaration proclaimed that “we intend to establish the Americas as the home of the world’s most competitive, inclusive, sustainable, and resilient regional value and supply chains.” The APEP partners agreed to meet at the leaders’ level every two years to assess progress, and Costa Rica has volunteered to host that stock-taking conclave in 2025. Establishing such timetables is one step toward transforming APEP from a lofty statement of aspirations into a historic idea that transforms inter-American relations.

Richard E. Feinberg is professor emeritus at UC San Diego, a member of Global Americans’ International Advisory Council, and the book review editor of the Western Hemisphere section of Foreign Affairs magazine. He is the author of Widening the Aperture: Nearshoring in our ‘Near Abroad’ (Latin American Program, Wilson Center, 2021).

To read the full article, click here.

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Transitioning from a lean business model to more flexible alternatives is a substantial and challenging shift. While it can seem intimidating, new technology — namely, artificial intelligence — provides a path forward. The key lies in using it effectively.

A Global Supply Chain Problem

Supply chain AI’s value is clearer when organizations understand the scope of the problems it solves. Today’s supply chains are in dire need of change. The pandemic has revealed how these networks have too many single dependencies, are too risk-prone, and have too few fallbacks and safeties to mitigate disruption.

A staggering 83% of supply chain organizations have experienced raw material shortages within the past year. These shortages are often disruptive, too, as 45% of companies have no visibility past their first-tier suppliers. Many others rely on just one or two sources for bodog poker review mission-critical resources. If something happens at a single upstream supplier, companies often won’t see it coming and are stuck until the supplier can recover. In light of how frequent disruptions are today from severe weather, geopolitical conflict and worker shortages, something needs to change. Supply chains must become adaptive so they can respond quickly to prevent delays and shortages.

The Promise of AI

Businesses can arrive at adaptive supply chains through different paths. Regardless of the specifics, though, AI makes the journey easier.

Tackling Inventory Management

One of supply chain AI’s biggest areas of impact is inventory management. Adaptive supply chains must be able to keep sufficient safety stocks, and adjust stock levels to meet shifting supply and demand. That’s difficult with conventional approaches, but AI offers more insight.

Businesses can use AI to analyze their sales and shipment history to categorize items based on volatility, criticality, and value. It’ll then be easier to understand which are most important to keep larger safety stocks of.

Similarly, AI can predict demand shifts so supply chains can adjust their inventories to meet these changes without surpluses or shortages. Coca-Cola does this to deliver 500 million beverages at optimal times across Japan. By adapting shipping practices to AI’s predictions, they can prevent waste and stock-outs simultaneously.

Highlighting Weaknesses

Inventory management may be an easy area of improvement to spot, but other issues can be harder to identify. Brands may not know where their weaknesses lie, making it difficult to optimize effectively. AI can clear this up, too.

It starts with creating a digital twin of the supply chain — a virtual model of the network based on real-world data. AI can then analyze the digital twin to find improvement areas. That could be a single dependency for a raw material supply, a warehouse with limited visibility or anything else that hinders flexibility.

Human analysts could theoretically do the same thing, but they’d take longer and be less accurate. AI can often spot subtle connections humans miss, so it’s the ideal tool to identify these supply chain weaknesses. Once companies know where they fall short, they can address those areas to boost adaptability.

Predicting Disruption

Of course, some disruption is inevitable. Even if enterprises optimize their inventories for adaptability and create a stronger supplier network, unexpected problems can still happen. However, these disruptions aren’t so disruptive if organizations see them coming and supply chain AI enables that foresight.

Just as AI models can predict demand shifts based on past trends, they can tell when a disruption is likely. By picking up on early warning signs, these models alert businesses of possible incoming problems. Companies can then react ahead of time to minimize the damage.

If AI predicts a shortage of a certain material, warehouses can increase their safety stocks ahead of time. If it suggests storms will slow transportation, logistics brands can inform downstream partners and schedule more time for deliveries. AI could even predict price shifts, letting enterprises know to save elsewhere to account for higher tax or fee spending.

Refining Documentation and Reporting

While pure efficiency over everything is no longer supply chains’ goal, efficiency is still important. Businesses must be able to act quickly if they hope to adapt to incoming disruptions or shifting trends. Once again, supply chain AI provides the solution.

AI can eliminate error-prone manual processes like data entry, billing and other documentation or reporting tasks. This kind of work doesn’t add much value to supply chains but takes a lot of time. Consequently, when companies manage it manually, they lose valuable time and effort they could otherwise spend on more nuanced, critical work like planning to adapt to incoming changes.

By automating back-office administrative tasks, supply chain organizations become more agile. They’ll be able to divert more resources to adaptation and get more done at once. This automation also mitigates labor shortages, enabling even more efficiency, which, in turn, enables adaptability.

The Road Ahead

The benefits of supply chain AI are hard to ignore. However, any seasoned business leader can attest things are often more complicated in real life than they are on paper. If companies want to capitalize on this potential, they must approach AI carefully.

As beneficial as this technology can be, it’s hard to get right. Between 60% and 80% of AI projects fail, mostly because of issues in the application, not the tech itself. Supply chains must understand AI’s weaknesses along with its strengths to use it effectively.

One key weakness to be aware of is the need for sufficient, accurate data. Brands must collect real-time and historical data across their supply chain to give AI enough information to draw correct conclusions. That means implementing data-gathering technologies like the Internet of Things and cleansing data before feeding it to AI models.

Organizations must also recognize this technological transformation is expensive and disruptive. Consequently, going all in on it at once will result in astronomical costs and poor results. Instead, businesses should identify where AI is most useful — typically, data-centric, analytical tasks where manual alternatives are least effective — and start there.

Applying AI to a single use case helps companies spread out the costs. They can then learn what works and what doesn’t to use it more effectively when they expand their AI in the future.

Supply Chain AI Could Be the Key to Adaptability

Supply chains must become more adaptive to meet tomorrow’s demands. To do that, they’ll have to embrace supply chain AI.

Implementing AI can be challenging, but if organizations do it well, it can push them ahead of the competition. They’ll then have the insights and efficiency necessary to adapt to a quickly shifting world.

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A move by China that could curtail exports of graphite may throw a wrench into the supply chains of electric vehicle and battery makers that rely on highly processed versions of the mineral to help power their fleets of plug-in automobiles.

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To read the full CRS report referenced in the article, click here.

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Mary Lovely is the Anthony M. Solomon senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

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Free trade has never looked so sickly. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have infected global trade relations. Coupled with the lingering disruption of Brexit and Covid-19, these rows threaten to severely disrupt global supply chains.

The cure? Well, recognising that trade and geopolitics are inextricably linked, the Biden administration has created a new policy to treat the supply chain risk. The diktat, which it has named friendshoring, involves only trading with trusted allies.

But the strategy raises several concerns. Firstly, how does the US propose to differentiate a ‘friendly country’ from an ‘unfriendly’ one? In addition to its traditional allies, the Biden administration has identified Brazil, India, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia as trustworthy nations.

But there are grey areas. Hungary, for example, is part of the EU, which is regarded as a friendly trading bloc in the US administration’s eyes. Yet US think-tank Freedom House only classes Hungary as being “partly free”, given Viktor Orban and his government’s frequent attacks on democracy, the rule of law, press freedoms and LGBTQ+ rights. What does it mean, then, for the US to indirectly call Hungary a ‘trusted ally’, then?

Finding alternatives to Made in China

Even if the US can fine-tune who it considers a trusted ally, and if its companies embrace the concept of friendshoring, can the emerging industrial powerhouses on the US list prove to be a viable substitute for Chinese manufacturing bases?

Jose Arturo Garza-Reyes, professor of operations management at the University of Derby, says that the aforementioned countries “are rapidly becoming part of the top 15 most competitive nations for labour-intensive commodity products”. In the short- to medium-term, he believes that “supply chain agreements formed with China can be replaced with agreements with these countries”.

But in the long term he worries that friendshoring could create a world divided between free-market democracies and authoritarian regimes. Garza-Reyes is particularly concerned that friendshoring could take the world back to similar trading characteristics last seen during the Cold War, creating ‘trade blocs’ where some countries are aligned to autocratic states such as China and Russia, and others to Western nations.

“This could exacerbate the already high friction between these blocs,” he says, “making the friendshoring policy a dangerous one. From an operational point of view, this would limit the partnerships and relationships that companies can develop, preventing them from being able to procure the best products, services and raw materials at the lowest cost. Once again, from an operational perspective, this makes friendshoring an undesired, but currently politically necessary policy.”

A necessary cost to bear?

If a policy of friendshoring divides the world into separate trading blocs, it is unclear what economic impact it would have. One estimate from the World Trade Organization suggests that GDP could take a hit of up to 5%.

Emily Benson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), agrees that this is a risk, but says that the policy of friendshoring “does not necessarily preclude deeper market access for non-aligned nations”.

She explains: “The US government is not saying that it will not allow goods into North America. It is affirmatively trying to build more partnerships with countries that have critical inputs for US supply chains.”

But perhaps the most important question of all is that with China being deemed an unfriendly nation by the new policy, will global corporations like Apple, which are heavily reliant on China for manufacturing, up and leave? According to Bloomberg Intelligence, around 98% of iPhones are made in China, and it would take the company about eight years to move just 10% of its production capacity out of China.

So how can the US administration persuade companies with large Chinese manufacturing bases to relocate to ‘friendlier’ climes? Options include offering subsidies or tax breaks to set up in countries which are considered trusted allies, placing tariffs on goods manufactured in China (as it did in the recent US/China trade war), or simply stopping US companies from buying from or selling to unfriendly nations.

Benson, who recently co-authored a report called The Limits of “Friend-Shoring”, says: “It’s much more nuanced than that and very sector-specific. Some industries such as the defence sector, which demand total transparency and visibility across their entire supply chain, will openly embrace friendshoring, while other sectors will find it more difficult to uncouple themselves from their Chinese manufacturing bases.”

Would friendshoring even work?

But will tariffs succeed in encouraging companies to shift to friendlier nations? Dr Heather Skipworth doesn’t think so. Skipworth, an associate professor in supply chain management at the Cranfield School of Management, points to a study she co-wrote two years ago which featured an interviewee from the automotive industry. This interviewee told Skipworth that “tariffs on steel and aluminium would need to be significantly higher than 25% to justify switching from a brake motor supplier in northern China to a domestic US supplier”.

From an operational point of view, friendshoring would limit the relationships that companies can develop

Skipworth adds: “In the end, our research revealed that it wasn’t necessarily tariffs that persuaded companies to move their supply chains away from China. Instead, we identified three factors – institutional pressures (which includes tariffs), supply chain mobility, and the perceived severity of the potential disruption risk – as the keys to supply chain design. In my view these characteristics could prove to be the main determinants of whether the friendshoring policy is followed.”

But for Garza-Reyes, tax breaks and subsidies may indeed have a role to play to “facilitate and support the reconfiguration of supply chains in the short and possibly medium term”. That said, he adds that the opportunity cost will be “an increased cost in the operation of the supply chains and the products, services and raw materials they procure”.

Why a gradual shift is on the cards

In the long term, both Garza-Reyes and Benson expect companies which have invested heavily in China to see the bigger picture and move their supply chains elsewhere.

As Garza-Reyes puts it: “I believe that most companies will still voluntarily follow this option as they know that doing business… with companies from unfriendly nations increases the risk of serious disruptions in their supply chains and operations.”

Benson agrees, adding that “over time the cost of labour in China will become more expensive. It may become more difficult for foreign companies to operate there due to a combination of higher labour costs and a more difficult political environment. It is therefore incumbent upon companies to determine which locations are competitive in terms of lower production costs and other efficiency gains, such as IP protections and overall ease of doing business.”

Such a shift would by no means signal the end of the global supply chain economy, but it underlines the increasingly important role that state-led commercial alliances and regional partnerships will play in future trade discussions.

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