• Global trade growth is forecast to grow at 2.8% per year through 2032—less than the 3.1% annual increase forecast for global GDP over the same period.
• Intra-regional trade in North America is forecast to grow by $466 billion, due to a combination of the US Mexico Canada Agreement and new US industrial policies.
• Southeast Asia and India stand to benefit from slowing trade between China and the West. ASEAN global trade will grow by $1.2 trillion and India’s will expand by over $390 billion.
• To stay competitive, companies should strengthen their geopolitical decision-making to help withstand supply chain disruptions, enhance their ability to respond to price volatility and inflation, adopt “fractal innovation,” and turbo-charge their risk and cybersecurity capabilities.

As the global economy adjusts to persistent economic and geopolitical pressures and disruptions, the familiar routes that defined the world trade map are being redrawn and trade blocs are playing a greater role. In addition, overall global trade is growing at a slower rate than the world economy, a fundamental shift away from the trend of trade-led globalism that has been prevalent since the end of the Cold War. World trade in goods is forecast to grow at 2.8% per year, on average, through 2032, compared with an estimated 3.1% growth rate for global GDP in the same period, according to a new BCG analysis. 

Stronghold North America

The United States, Canada, and Mexico will benefit from the US Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA), as US trade with its neighbors is forecast to grow by $466 billion in the coming decade. Faced with a combination of economic pressure and national security concerns, the Biden administration has adopted a new focus on industrial policies with a more protectionist bent, such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The result is a more influential regional manufacturing footprint with direct investment into strategic industries.

China Trade Dynamics

Persistent trade tensions and growing trade barriers are continuing to impact trade between China and the West. The projected fall-off in US-China trade is one of the most significant developments in the updated global trade map, with 2032 trade value forecast to fall $197 billion from its 2022 level. This is more than three times the $63 billion contraction forecast one year ago in a similar BCG analysis. The change is due to China’s slowing GDP growth in 2022, combined with other factors. China’s trade with the EU will continue to grow, but more slowly than the global average.

ASEAN Trade Growth

Southeast Asian nations are among the biggest winners in the new world trade order. Cumulative ASEAN trade is forecast to grow $1.2 trillion in the next ten years due to the region’s emergence as a key destination for companies seeking to decrease their dependence on China for manufacturing by adopting a “China + 1” diversification bodog casino strategy. ASEAN is an attractive China alternative because of its young and dynamic population, economic diversity, and generally neutral stance among geopolitical blocs.

India Ignition

Like the ASEAN nations, India is benefiting from a low-cost structure and capable workforce to rise as a major domestic market and “China + 1” destination for global manufacturing. India’s large market and particular strength in industries such as chemicals, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals are attractive for companies seeking to diversify their global footprint. Expanding trade connectivity, as evidenced by new and under-negotiation trade agreements, are helping to increase India’s projected external trade in the next ten years by $393 billion, including $180 billion with the US and EU and $124 billion with China.

Russia Trade Divergence

The break in Russia’s trade with the EU and the US caused by the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and reduced European dependence on Russian energy will influence Russia’s trading profile at least so long as the stalemate in Ukraine continues. These conditions have not led to the elimination of Russian trade, but rather its redirection elsewhere. For example, much of the trade with the EU has shifted to Russia’s fellow BRICs countries: Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. While Russia’s trade with the EU in 2032 will fall by $222 billion, compared with 2022, its trade with China and India will grow by $134 billion and $26 billion, respectively.

Multiple Challenges Are Inhibiting Trade Growth

The cooler trade climate is part of a reordering of the world trade map that is taking shape in the wake of the recent twin shocks of the pandemic and the Ukraine war, accompanied by a rise in trade protectionism and a falloff in globalization sentiment. A variety of factors are contributing to reshoring of manufacturing around the world, with a predictable dampening effect on global trade. These include:

• Industrial policy. A leading element is the rise of national policies designed to support domestic industry and job creation. Policies such as the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), with its “Buy American” incentives, reflect governments prioritizing national interests over multilateral, rules-based organizations, such as the World Trade Organization. Similar policies can be seen in the European Union and other parts of the world.
• Labor economics. Companies in some regions are taking advantage of capable, low-cost labor as well as the availability of new technologies that have enabled them to reshore or near-shore manufacturing operations. For example, the cost gap between US and Chinese labor has narrowed as labor costs in China have risen on a relative basis, while locations such as Mexico, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America have become competitive with China on labor costs.
• Supply chain stability. Faced with risks of disruption and overreliance on extended and brittle supply chains, companies are seeking to diversify their global manufacturing and sourcing networks by moving to markets with lower geopolitical risk, reliable infrastructure and, in some cases, proximity to end-markets.
• Environmental factors. Global and domestic pressure on industry to decarbonize operations has led companies to focus on geographies with clean energy supplies, reduce carbon footprints, and increase overall sustainability. Policies such as the EU’s Green Deal are incentivizing European companies to use more low-carbon energy sources by locating manufacturing closer to home.

As Cooperation Cools, Regional Trade Blocs Rise

A characteristic of the new world trade order will be the growing prominence of trade blocs—especially bodog sportsbook review North America, the EU, ASEAN countries, and potentially the BRICs—as production moves closer to end markets. Blocs are attractive for countries seeking to limit geopolitical friction by trading with entities seen as “friendly” partners, especially where trade agreements exist, such as the EU, USMCA, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement.

Under the Biden administration, the US has adopted new industrial policies, with legislation that encourages direct investment in strategic industries such as semiconductors, domestic manufacturing, renewable energy production, and electric vehicle infrastructure and battery technology.

Combined with the USMCA, the net effect of these industrial policies is to pull investment back to the US—especially for industries deemed critical to national security, like computer chips. Trade between the US and Mexico stands to grow by an impressive $300 billion over the coming decade. The Inflation Reduction Act, for example, goes beyond familiar “Buy American” incentives to encompass a “Buy North American” approach, such as extending the $7,500 credit for electric vehicles with powertrains or battery technology made in the US, Canada, or Mexico.

Among the biggest impacts of increasing emphasis on resilience through diversification of global markets and supply chains will be a continued fall-off in trade between China and the United States, as companies seek trading partners and manufacturing locations to rebalance their global risk exposure.

As the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods, China itself is resilient. Trade that stops flowing between China and the West will simply move elsewhere. Notable beneficiaries of reduced US concentration in China will be the ASEAN countries and India as many companies move manufacturing to these economies, both to reduce global supply chain risks and to access new markets. As a result, trade between ASEAN and China will grow a remarkable $616 billion in the coming decade—and trade between ASEAN and both the US and Japan will increase by more than $200 billion. India is forecast to achieve 6.3% average annual trade growth, partly because of this rebalancing of China trade.

“No-Regrets” Moves to Improve Preparedness and Competitiveness

As trade frictions grow and trust in multilateralism weakens, the global market is becoming more fragmented. The more cooperative trade environment that enabled companies to build global supply chains in recent decades is quickly being replaced by a more uncertain world characterized by a mix of smaller regional and local supply chains. In the short term, companies should take several steps to adapt.

• Strengthen geopolitical decision-making capability to enable supply chains to withstand disruptions. Companies can improve resilience by investing in digital tools, such as artificial intelligence, to enable agile decision-making and adaptability. Companies can also take steps such as building buffer inventories of essential commodities, prequalifying alternative suppliers, and planning contingencies for at-risk supply inputs.
• Enhance ability to respond to price volatility and inflation. Strategies can include building resilient pricing, such as by sensing demand shifts earlier and developing dynamic pricing capabilities, strengthening customer relationships and contracting flexibility, and exploring new monetization models, including “as-a-service” models and outcome-based pricing.
• Become more flexible and adaptable by adopting “fractal innovation.” To help meet the challenges bodog poker review of a fragmenting global trading landscape, companies can address differentiated needs of local customers by adopting a “customer-in” approach and embracing a new way of designing products—something we call fractal innovation.
• Turbo-charge risk and cybersecurity capabilities. Companies should identify security gaps, prioritize security projects and tools, and consider approaches such as a cyber tool health index, zero-based budgeting, and cyber risk quantification to develop a custom cybersecurity roadmap.

Forces that have had a dampening effect on global trade in recent years will continue to be a factor in the world economy and corporate decision-making. Companies that rely on global supply chains must recognize that the challenges afflicting global trade are here to stay, and should continue to diversify their networks and build resilience.

To read the full article as it appears on BCG X, click here.

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In her opening message, DG Okonjo-Iweala says:

“The multilateral trading system has played an important part in efforts to fight COVID-19. Trade’s resilience represented a lifeline for millions, enabling access to food and other essential supplies. Now, the WTO can and must play a critical role in accelerating COVID-19 vaccine production and in ensuring a strong, sustained and inclusive global economic recovery.

“To live up to its founding objectives of using trade to help people — to raise living standards, create jobs and promote sustainable development — the WTO must deliver results this year. By responding together to a global crisis without precedent in our lifetimes, members can begin to rebuild the trust needed to address future challenges.”

To read the full report from the World Trade Organization (WTO), please click here. 

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Last month, our cost of Brexit model showed that leaving the single market and customs union in January 2021 had reduced the UK’s total goods trade by 22 per cent. Using the data for February, which was released today, we estimate that goods trade is now 5 per cent, or £3.5 billion, lower. That is a significant improvement on the January data, as we expected, partly because businesses had built up stockpiles to cope with disruption at the EU border in January, and were replenishing them in February, and partly because volatile trade in precious metals rose sharply. Furthermore, the value of trade in ‘doppelgänger UK’ – a group of countries whose trade performance matched that of the UK between 2016 and 2019 – fell slightly in February. Monthly trade data is volatile, so it will take several more months for the impact of Brexit on the level of UK goods trade to become clear.

To read the full insight piece by the Centre for European Reform, please click here. 

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These accords represent a major political breakthrough. They also represent a possible new chapter in the region’s development: away from conflict and toward a shared vision of economic prosperity. If these new relations evolve into deeper economic integration, we estimate that the economic benefits for Israel’s partners in this endeavor could be particularly significant, creating approximately 150,000 new jobs for just the four current signatories. This number could grow to more than four million new jobs, and more than $1 trillion in new economic activity over a decade, if the accords grow to include 11 nations (including Israel) as some have speculated may be possible.

To read the full report by The RAND Corporation, please click here.

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2020 may well go down in history as a great global inflection point. It is thus worth looking back to examine what happened and why and to reflect on where we may be headed in the decade ahead. The Avoidable War: The Decade of Living Dangerously, the third volume of ASPI’s annual Avoidable War series, does precisely that. It contains selected essays, articles, and speeches by Asia Society and ASPI President the Hon. Kevin Rudd that provide a series of snapshots as events unfolded over the course of 2020 — from the COVID-19 pandemic, through an implosion of multilateral governance, to the impact on China’s domestic political economy.

Finally, it concludes with a discussion of the growing challenges the world will face as the escalating contest between the United States and China enters a decisive phase in the 2020s. No matter what strategies the two sides pursue or what events unfold, the tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. The Chinese Communist Party is increasingly confident that by the decade’s end, China’s economy will finally and unambiguously surpass that of the United States as the world’s largest, and this will turbocharge Beijing’s self-confidence, assertiveness, and leverage. Increasingly, this will be a “decade of living dangerously” for us all. War, however, is not inevitable. Rudd argues that it remains possible for the two countries to put in place guardrails that can prevent a catastrophe: a joint framework he calls “managed strategic competition” that would reduce the risk of competition escalating into open conflict.

To read the full report by The Asia Society Policy Institute, please click here. 

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US President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory in the November 3rd election has raised hopes for greater transatlantic cooperation. On the campaign trail, the former Vice President vocalised his desire to repair relations with American allies, in particular Europe. His pick for Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is an avowed Atlanticist and proponent of multilateral institutions. As part of a more multilateralist agenda, Biden has stressed that combating climate change will be one of his main priorities. He pledged to rejoin the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, has proposed a $2 trillion climate plan to make the US climate neutral by 2050, and appointed former Secretary of State John Kerry as his Special Presidential for Climate to demonstrate his commitment to addressing the crisis.

Despite these encouraging signs, the Biden administration will not be a cure-all for climate, mostly as a result of the domestic challenges that it will face. Although his plan is ambitious compared to previous presidents, Biden’s climate proposals fall well short of the left-leaning “Green New Deal” sponsored by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Edward Markey. Furthermore, Biden will restrict –but not ban– fracking and picked several advisers with ties to fossil fuel industries. Politically, any climate agenda will face headwinds (if not outright obstruction) from a likely Republican-controlled Senate and a right-leaning judiciary. While these limitations pale in comparison to the outright climate-denial of the Trump administration, it is still crucial for advocates of transatlantic climate cooperation to be mindful of them. In light of the ambitions and constraints of the incoming Biden administration, this policy brief suggests key areas where the US and the EU could work together to deliver global climate action in the next two years.

Conclusion

President-elect Biden will not have free rein to implement his climate action program. In addition to judicial barriers, bodog casino Democrats will most likely not control the US Senate. And with Democrats holding only a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and midterm elections usually swinging against the president’s party, Republicans may retake the House in 2022. With so much uncertainty on the horizon, the next two years are therefore crucial to accomplish climate goals.

After Biden takes office on January 20th, 2021, the EU must act with a sense of urgency. It should engage the new US administration on areas where progress can be entrenched in the next two years: relaunching global climate diplomacy, developing a global green recovery program, accelerating clean energy innovation, cooperating on common standards and phasing out of coal. This will be an uphill battle but Europeans need to make the best of the coming two years, They must hope that new ambitious policies will shift climate economics and politics enough to help change the calculus for elected representatives and firms alike, who may realize that climate-friendliness is the most viable way to re-election and a successful business. This is the surest way to forge a substantive American contribution to global climate action.

To read the full brief, please click here.

Thomas Pellerin-Carlin is the Director of the Energy Centre at the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris.

Edward Knudsen is a Research Associate for the Dahrendorf Forum and Affiliate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin.

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The relationship between the European Union and the United States is unique and built on shared history, shared values and shared interests. The transatlantic partnership was born of a promise of collective peace, progress and prosperity. After the Second World War, the Marshall Plan helped rebuild Europe’s communities and economies. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ensured our collective security. Together, Europe and the US helped design and build the multilateral rules-based system to tackle global challenges. For people on both sides of the Atlantic, transatlantic ties are a vital element in our societies, identities, economies and personal lives.

Today, our combined global power and influence remains unrivalled. We are home to nearly a billion people and are the two largest blocs of advanced democracies. We account for about a third of the world’s GDP and trade, and 60% of foreign direct investment. The density and openness of transatlantic trade and investment creates millions of jobs and shapes large parts of the global economy. We have the reach to set regulations and standards that are replicated across the world. We are the primary drivers of innovation and the world’s research powerhouses, developing technology from 5G to vaccines.

This combined power and influence is indispensable to anchor global cooperation in the 21st century – whether it be on health, security, climate, trade and technology, or on the multilateral rules-based order. Our joint commitment is essential in a world where authoritarian powers seek to subvert democracies, aggressive actors try to destabilise regions and institutions, and closed economies exploit the openness our own societies depend on.

Just as this need for cooperation has become all the more important, so has the transatlantic partnership become in need of maintenance and renewal. In recent years, our relationship was tested by geopolitical power shifts, bilateral Bodog Poker tensions and retreats to unilateral policies.

With a change of administration in the US, a more assertive Europe and the need to design a post-corona world, we have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to design a new transatlantic agenda for global cooperation – based on our common values, interests and global influence. This should be the linchpin of a new global alliance of like-minded partners. This comes at a time when there is a commonality of outlook and priorities on domestic and international agendas between the incoming US administration and the European Union.

As we set about defining this new agenda, we should not embark on a nostalgic search for the global order of past decades or the transatlantic partnership of past generations. The US and the EU have changed, as have power dynamics and geopolitical and technological realities.

We should also not fall into the trap of false debates that seek to oppose a stronger Europe and a stronger transatlantic partnership. A united, capable and self-reliant EU is good for Europe, good for the transatlantic partnership and good for the multilateral system – they are mutually reinforcing not mutually exclusive.

It is in this spirit that the EU is putting forward a proposal for a new, forward-looking transatlantic agenda for global cooperation, centred on areas where our interests converge, our collective leverage can best be used and where global leadership is required.

To download the full communication, please click here.

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