bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research-topics/oecd/ Tue, 21 May 2024 17:54:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2018/08/android-chrome-256x256-80x80.png bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research-topics/oecd/ 32 32 bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/oecd-ai/ Thu, 02 May 2024 14:19:46 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=45465 Background Information The Recommendation on Artificial Intelligence (AI) (hereafter the “Recommendation”) – the first intergovernmental standard on AI – was adopted by the OECD Council meeting at Ministerial level on...

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The Recommendation on Artificial Intelligence (AI) (hereafter the “Recommendation”) – the first intergovernmental standard on AI – was adopted by the OECD Council meeting at Ministerial level on 22 May 2019 on the proposal of the Digital Policy Committee (DPC, formerly the Committee on Digital Economy Policy, CDEP). The Recommendation aims to foster innovation and trust in AI by promoting the responsible stewardship of trustworthy AI while ensuring respect for human rights and democratic values. In June 2019, at the Osaka Summit, G20 Leaders welcomed the G20 AI Principles, drawn from the Recommendation.

The Recommendation was revised by the OECD Council on 8 November 2023 to update its definition of an “AI System”, in order to ensure the Recommendation continues to be technically accurate and reflect technological developments, including with respect to generative AI. On the basis of the 2024 Report to Council on its implementation, dissemination and continued relevance, the Recommendation was revised by the OECD Council meeting at Ministerial level on 3 May 2024 to reflect technological and policy developments, including with respect to generative AI, and to further facilitate its implementation.

The OECD’s work on Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a general-purpose technology that has the potential to: improve the welfare and well-being of people, contribute to positive sustainable global economic activity, increase innovation and productivity, and help respond to key global challenges. It is deployed in many sectors ranging from production, education, finance and transport to healthcare and security.

Alongside benefits, AI also raises challenges for our societies and economies, notably regarding economic shifts and inequalities, competition, transitions in the labour market, and implications for democracy and human rights.

The OECD has undertaken empirical and policy activities on AI in support of the policy debate since 2016, starting with a Technology Foresight Forum on AI that year, followed by an international conference on AI: Intelligent Machines, Smart Policies in 2017. The Organisation also conducted analytical and measurement work that provides an overview of the AI technical landscape, maps economic and social impacts of AI technologies and their applications, identifies major policy considerations, and describes AI initiatives from governments and other stakeholders at national and international levels.

This work has demonstrated the need to shape a stable policy environment at the international level to foster trust in and adoption of AI in society. Against this background, the OECD Council adopted, on the proposal of DPC, a Recommendation to promote a human-centred approach to trustworthy AI, that fosters research, preserves economic incentives to innovate, and applies to all stakeholders.

An inclusive and participatory process for developing the Recommendation

The development of the Recommendation was participatory in nature, incorporating input from a broad range of sources throughout the process. In May 2018, the DPC agreed to form an expert group to scope principles to foster trust in and adoption of AI, with a view to developing a draft Recommendation in the course of 2019. The informal AI Group of experts at the OECD was subsequently established, comprising over 50 experts from different disciplines and different sectors (government, industry, civil society, trade unions, the technical community and academia). Between September 2018 and February 2019 the group held four meetings. The work benefited from the diligence, engagement and substantive contributions of the experts participating in the group, as well as from their multi-stakeholder and multidisciplinary backgrounds.

Drawing on the final output document of the informal group, a draft Recommendation was developed in the DPC and with the consultation of other relevant OECD bodies and approved in a special meeting on 14-15 March 2019. The OECD Council adopted the Recommendation at its meeting at Ministerial level on 22-23 May 2019.

Scope of the Recommendation

Complementing existing OECD standards already relevant to AI – such as those on privacy and data protection, digital security risk management, and responsible business conduct – the Recommendation focuses on policy issues that are specific to AI and strives to set a standard that is implementable and flexible enough to stand the test of time in a rapidly evolving field. The Recommendation contains five high-level values-based principles and five recommendations for national policies and Bodog Poker international co-operation. It also proposes a common understanding of key terms, such as “AI system”, “AI system lifecycle”, and “AI actors”, for the purposes of the Recommendation.

More specifically, the Recommendation includes two substantive sections:

  1. Principles for responsible stewardship of trustworthy AI: the first section sets out five complementary principles relevant to all stakeholders: i) inclusive growth, sustainable development and well-being; ii) respect for the rule of law, human rights and democratic values, including fairness and privacy; iii) transparency and explainability; iv) robustness, security and safety; and v) accountability. This section further calls on AI actors to promote and implement these principles according to their roles.
  2. National policies and Bodog Poker international co-operation for trustworthy AI: consistent with the five aforementioned principles, the second section provides five recommendations to Members and non-Members having adhered to the Recommendation (hereafter the “Adherents”) to implement in their national policies and international co-operation: i) investing in AI research and development; ii) fostering an inclusive AI-enabling ecosystem; iii) shaping an enabling interoperable governance and policy environment for AI; iv) building human capacity and preparing for labour market transformation; and v) international co-operation for trustworthy AI.

2023 and 2024 Revisions of the Recommendation

In 2023, a window of opportunity was identified to maintain the relevance of the Recommendation by updating its definition of an “AI System”, and the DPC approved a draft revised definition in a joint session of the Committee and its Working Party on AI Governance (AIGO) on 16 October 2023. The OECD Council adopted the revised definition of “AI System” at its meeting on 8 November 2023. The update of the definition included edits aimed at:

  • clarifying the objectives of an AI system (which may be explicit or implicit);
  • underscoring the role of input which may be provided by humans or machines;
  • clarifying that the Recommendation applies to generative AI systems, which produce “content”;
  • substituting the word “real” with “physical” for clarity and alignment with other international processes;
  • reflecting the fact that some AI systems can continue to evolve after their design and deployment.

In line with the conclusions of the 2024 Report to Council, the Recommendation was further revised at the 2024 Meeting of the Council at Ministerial level to maintain its continued relevance and facilitate its implementation five years after its adoption. Specific updates aimed at:

  • reflecting the growing importance of addressing misinformation and disinformation, and safeguarding information integrity in the context of generative AI;
  • addressing uses outside of intended purpose, intentional misuse, or unintentional misuse;
  • clarifying the information AI actors should provide regarding AI systems to ensure transparency and responsible disclosure;
  • addressing safety concerns, so that if AI systems risk causing undue harm or exhibit undesired behaviour, they can be overridden, repaired, and/or decommissioned safely by human interaction;
  • emphasising responsible business conduct throughout the AI system lifecycle, involving co- operation with suppliers of AI knowledge and AI resources, AI system users, and other stakeholders,
  • underscoring the need for jurisdictions to work together to promote interoperable governance and policy environments for AI, against the increase in AI policy initiatives worldwide, and
  • introducing an explicit reference to environmental sustainability, of which the importance has grown considerably since the adoption of the Recommendation in 2019.

Furthermore, some of the headings of the principles and recommendations were expanded for clarity, and the text on traceability and risk management was further elaborated and moved to the “Accountability” principle as the most appropriate principle for these concepts.

Implementation

The Recommendation instructs the DPC to report to the Council on its implementation, dissemination and continued relevance five years after its adoption and regularly thereafter.

2024 Report to Council

The DPC, through AIGO, developed a report to the Council on the implementation, dissemination and continued relevance of the Recommendation five years after its implementation, and proposed draft revisions drawing from its conclusions.

The 2024 Report concluded that the Recommendation provides a significant and useful international reference in national AI policymaking. The Recommendation is being implemented by its Adherents, is widely disseminated, and remains fully relevant, including as a solid framework to analyse technology evolutions such as those related to generative AI.

However, the 2024 Report found that updates were needed to clarify the substance of some of the Recommendation’s provisions, facilitate implementation, increase relevance, and ensure the Recommendation reflects important technological developments, including with respect to generative AI.

Further work to support the implementation of the Recommendation

In addition to reporting to the Council on the implementation of the Recommendation, the DPC is also instructed to continue its work on AI, building on this Recommendation, and taking into account work in other international fora, such as UNESCO, the European Union, the Council of Europe and the initiative to build an International Panel on AI.

In order to support implementation of the Recommendation, the Council instructed the DPC to develop practical guidance for implementation, to provide a forum for exchanging information on AI policy and activities, and to foster multi-stakeholder and interdisciplinary dialogue.

To provide an inclusive forum for exchanging information on AI policy and activities, and to foster multi-stakeholder and interdisciplinary dialogue, the OECD launched i) the AI Policy Observatory (OECD.AI) as well as ii) the informal OECD Network of Experts on AI (ONE AI) in February 2020.

OECD.AI is an inclusive hub for public policy on AI that aims to help countries encourage, nurture and monitor the responsible development of trustworthy artificial intelligence systems for the benefit of society. It combines resources from across the OECD with those of partners from all stakeholder groups to provide multidisciplinary, evidence-based policy analysis on AI. The Observatory includes a live database of AI strategies, policies and initiatives that countries and other stakeholders can share and update, enabling the comparison of their key elements in an interactive manner. It is continuously updated with AI metrics, measurements, policies and good practices that lead to further updates in the practical guidance for implementation.

OECD-LEGAL-0449-en

 

To read the recommendations as published by the OECD, please click here.

To read the full document, please click here.

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Competition authorities face a complex environment when addressing potential misconduct in digital markets. In particular, many concerns relate to conduct, strategies and innovations that are ambiguous in their effect because they hold significant procompetitive potential, such as seamlessly integrated services, greater transparency, dynamic pricing, lower searching costs from price comparison websites, and the convenience of e-commerce. Businesses also benefit, including small businesses that enjoy greater access to consumers and the ability to leverage large platform network effects. However, these benefits may also have a corresponding competition harm. Algorithmic pricing may be a tool for collusion. Network effects and economies of scale and scope can increase the effectiveness of exclusionary conduct by dominant firms. The centrality of digital platforms in certain markets can enable vertical foreclosure, or the imposition of restraints that limit the intensity of competition. And the underlying characteristics of digital markets could give rise to tipping, meaning that the effects of abusive conduct may be particularly serious in these markets.

Thus, dealing with potential misconduct in digital markets will often require a careful balancing act. The grey zone between clearly procompetitive and clearly anticompetitive conduct seems to have become bigger, while the risks of not intervening have become more serious. Further, there are concerns that novel forms of misconduct, such as algorithmic collusion, can be difficult to detect, and in some cases harder to prosecute under current competition laws. This has led to questions about whether certain concepts must be revisited, ranging from the definition of a collusive agreement, to the application to digital markets of theories of harm focused on vertical integration in network industries.

In sum, the OECD’s work on misconduct in digital markets has found that many of the core principles, analytical concepts, and areas of concern continue to be relevant. However, authorities will need to be on the lookout for new forms of misconduct and new tools for detection and analysis. At the same time, there is growing consensus that some concerns cannot be addressed under current enforcement frameworks, either because they do not apply, or they may not be effective in rapidly-changing markets, and as such might need a degree of ex ante regulation.

oecd-handbook-on-competition-policy-in-the-digital-age

To read the full report from the OECD, please click here

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/oecd-for-new-era/ Mon, 27 Sep 2021 16:04:55 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=32072 September 30th, 2021, marks the 60th anniversary of the creation of the OECD—the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The organization was the post-WWII flagbearer for market economics, offering a...

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September 30th, 2021, marks the 60th anniversary of the creation of the OECD—the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The organization was the post-WWII flagbearer for market economics, offering a positive vision of the benefits of cooperation among market democracies. By emphasizing analytical expertise to find pathways to policy alignment, the OECD achieved success and helped define the character of post-war liberal political systems in competition with authoritarian statism. Today, market economies are struggling to agree on a competition model with non-market statecraft again. Rather than invent a new institution, they should take a fresh look at this existing one.

After a period of unilateralism, the US is again promoting international cooperation to address shared concerns. This will not always be the case, as the contretemps over submarine sales to Australia made painfully clear. But the return to market economy teamwork is real, and it comes at a crucial moment: advanced economies are dealing with questions that require active coordination. How to deal with non-market or authoritarian business partners? How to craft data policy, competition policy, investment screening, and other policy areas at the intersection of economic and national security?

Most importantly, what forum should market nations use to cooperate on these issues? The big-tent multinational organizations such as the World Bank, WTO, UNCTAD, and IMF each have important roles. But their inclusiveness has drawbacks too, particularly when members have fundamentally different views over the merits of market mechanisms versus state planning and economic authoritarianism. A few business associations – notably Germany’s admirable BDI – have moved out front to get their members thinking proactively, but most trade groups are keeping their heads down, waiting for national leaders to set the tune.

Daniel H. Rosen is a Partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China, India and Asia. 

Agatha Kratz is a Director at Rhodium Group. She heads Rhodium’s China corporate advisory team, as well as Rhodium’s researcg on European Union-China relations and China’s economic statecraft. 

Charlie Vest is a Senior Analyst on Rhodium Group’s corporate advisory team. 

Lauren Dudley is a Research Analyst at Rhodium Group focusing on geopolitical competition with China. 

An_OECD_for_a_New_Era

To read the full report by the Rhodium Group, please click here

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/global-economic-effects-of-covid-19/ Tue, 15 Jun 2021 15:48:16 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=19981 The COVID-19 viral pandemic has been individually experienced, but globally shared. It disrupted lives across all countries and communities and negatively affected global economic growth in 2020 beyond anything experienced...

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The COVID-19 viral pandemic has been individually experienced, but globally shared. It disrupted lives across all countries and communities and negatively affected global economic growth in 2020 beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus reduced global economic growth to an annualized bodog sportsbook review rate of -4.5% to -6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery of 2.5% to 5.2% projected for 2021. Global trade is estimated to have fallen by 5.3% in 2020, but is projected to grow by 8.0% in 2021. According to a consensus of forecasts, the economic downturn in 2020 was not as negative as initially estimated, due, at least in part, to the fiscal and monetary policies governments adopted in 2020. Major advanced economies, which comprise 60% of global economic activity, are projected to operate below their potential output level through at least 2024, which will negatively affect national and individual economic welfare. Compared with the synchronized nature of the global economic slowdown in the first half of 2020, the global economy showed signs of a two-track recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 with developed economies experiencing a nascent recovery, but economic growth in developing economies lagging behind. A resurgence in infectious cases in Europe, Russia, the United States, Japan, Brazil, India, and various developing economies renewed calls for lockdowns and curfews and threatened to weaken or delay a potential sustained economic
recovery into mid to late 2021.

Since the beginning of 2021, developed economies have made strides in vaccinating growing shares of their populations, raising prospects of a recovery in those economies and, in turn, the broader global economy. However, a surge in diagnosed cases in large developing economies and resistance to vaccinations among some populations in developed economies raise questions about the speed and the strength of an economic recovery over the near term. The economic fallout from the pandemic could risk continued labor dislocations as a result of lingering high levels of unemployment not experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s and high levels of debt among developing economies. Job losses have been concentrated more intensively in the services sector where workers have been unable to work offsite.

The human costs in terms of lives lost will permanently affect global economic growth in addition to the cost of elevated levels of poverty, lives upended, careers derailed, and increased social unrest. Some estimates indicate that 95 million people may have entered into extreme poverty in 2020 with 80 million more undernourished compared to pre-pandemic levels. In addition, some estimates indicate that global trade could fall by an annual amount of 9.0% or slightly less in 2020 as a result of the global economic downturn, exacting an especially heavy economic toll on trade-dependent developing and emerging economies. While the full economic impact of the pandemic is coming more into focus in developed economies where vaccinations are facilitating a return to prepandemic levels of economic activity, the global impact remains less certain as new viral outbreaks have worsened the economic impact in some developing economies. This report provides an overview of the global economic costs to date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects.

R46270

To view the full report from the Congressional Research Service, click here.

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/oecd-dec-2020-outlook/ Tue, 01 Dec 2020 17:41:26 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=25307 A brighter outlook but recovery will be gradual Faster vaccine deployment and better cooperation for its distribution would boost confidence and strengthen the pickup but continued uncertainty risks further weakness Vaccination...

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A brighter outlook but recovery will be gradual

Faster vaccine deployment and better cooperation for its distribution would boost confidence and strengthen the pickup but continued uncertainty risks further weakness

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/oecd-interim-economic-assessment/ Wed, 16 Sep 2020 21:01:37 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=23115 Summary Global output collapsed in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, with declines of more than one-fifth in some advanced and emerging-market economies. Without the...

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Summary

Global output collapsed in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold, with declines of more than one-fifth in some advanced and emerging-market economies. Without the prompt and effective policy support introduced in all economies, the contraction in output would have been substantially larger. Output picked up swiftly following the easing of confinement measures and the initial re-opening of businesses, but the pace of the global recovery has lost some momentum over the summer months.

  • Household spending on many durable goods has bounced back relatively quickly, but spending on services, especially those requiring close proximity between workers and consumers or international travel, has remained subdued.
  • Hours worked have fallen significantly everywhere, but government support schemes have helped to maintain household incomes.
  • Corporate investment and international trade remain weak, holding back the pick-up in manufacturing production in many export-oriented economies.

The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty and projections are dependent on assumptions about the bodog sportsbook review spread of the COVID-19 virus and policy developments.

  • The projections assume that sporadic local outbreaks will continue, with these being addressed by targeted local interventions rather than national lockdowns; a vaccination is assumed not to become widely available until late in 2021. 
  • Global GDP is projected to decline by 4½ per cent this year, before picking up by 5% in 2021. The drop in global output in 2020 is smaller than expected, though still unprecedented in recent history, but this masks considerable differences across countries, with upward revisions in China, the United States and Europe, but weaker-than-expected outcomes in India, Mexico and South Africa. 
  • In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic. 
  • If the threat from the coronavirus fades more quickly than expected, improved confidence could boost global activity significantly in 2021. However, a stronger resurgence of the virus, or more stringent containment measures, could cut 2-3 percentage points from global growth in 2021, with higher unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.

Fiscal, monetary and structural policy support needs to be maintained to preserve confidence and limit uncertainty, but evolve with underlying economic conditions. 

  • Many central banks have appropriately announced further policy easing in the past three months and changes in policy frameworks are being rightly introduced to convince investors that policy rates will be kept low for a long time. 
  • Fiscal policy support needs to be pursued in 2021 and recent announcements in many countries of additional fiscal measures are welcome; the aim must be to avoid premature budgetary tightening at a time when economies are still fragile. 
  • The maintenance of strong fiscal support should not prevent necessary adjustments to key emergency programmes – including job retention schemes, and income support measures – to limit long-lasting costs from the crisis and encourage the needed reallocation of resources towards expanding sectors. 
  • Enhanced global co-operation to maintain open borders and the free flow of trade, investment and medical equipment is essential to mitigate and suppress the virus in all parts of the world and speed up the economic recovery.
OECD

To download the full report, please click here

 

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/global-economic-effects-covid/ Mon, 31 Aug 2020 21:47:17 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=22738 Since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states. The pandemic is negatively affecting global economic growth beyond anything experienced in...

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Since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states. The pandemic is negatively affecting global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus could trim global economic growth by 3.0% to 6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery in 2021, assuming there is not a second wave of infections. The economic fallout from the pandemic raises the risks of a global economic recession with levels of unemployment not experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The human costs in terms of lives lost will permanently affect global economic growth in addition to the cost of rising levels of poverty, lives upended, careers derailed, and increased social unrest. Global trade could also fall by 18%, depending on the depth and extent of the global economic downturn, exacting an especially heavy economic toll on trade-dependent developing and emerging economies. The full impact will not be known until the effects of the pandemic peak. This report provides an overview of the global economic costs to date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects.

Global_Ecinimic_Effrcts_Covid_CRS

James K. Jackson is a Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service. 

Martin A. Weiss is a specialist in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service.

Andres B. Schwarzenberg is an analyst in International Trade and Finance at the Congressional Research Service.

Rebecca M. Nelson is a specialist in International Trade and Finance at the  Congressional Research Service

To download the original report, please click here.

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/taxation-of-the-digitalized-economy-development-summary/ Fri, 26 Jun 2020 17:28:15 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=21600 Updated as of June 26, 2020, | This summary provides a general overview, covering direct and indirect taxes, of how countries are responding to the challenges arising from the digitalized...

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Updated as of June 26, 2020, | This summary provides a general overview, covering direct and indirect taxes, of how countries are responding to the challenges arising from the digitalized economy.

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/facing-the-future-shaping-safe-trade-outcomes-report/ Tue, 16 Jun 2020 14:00:01 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=21109 The fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic, which hits out at the entire fabric of how people live, work and do business, is being felt all the more keenly in...

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The fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic, which hits out at the entire fabric of how people live, work and do business, is being felt all the more keenly in developing countries.

How the global community responds will be shaped in the coming period, but STDF’s vision of sustainable economic growth, poverty reduction and food security is as critical as ever.

The STDF partnership in the last year has continued to bring that vision to life. We are proud of our responsive, expert-driven work to effect change and empower small-scale farmers, producers, traders and governments working in developing and least developed countries.

This 2019 Annual Report is focused on facing the future and shaping safe trade outcomes, with the development of STDF’s 2020-2024 Strategy, drawing on the latest external evaluation. Headline results and lessons from the Report connect to the UN Global Goals of no poverty, zero hunger, good health and well-being, decent work and economic growth, and partnerships, and show how our work links to emerging trade and development trends.

In 2019, STDF’s global platform, knowledge hub and projects delivered practical solutions for the public
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We look forward to staying connected and realizing our collective vision.

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bodog poker review|Most Popular_network effects. However, /atp-research/global-economy-faces-a-tightrope-walk-to-recovery/ Wed, 10 Jun 2020 16:09:52 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=20973 As restrictions begin to be eased, the path to economic recovery remains highly uncertain and vulnerable to a second wave of infections. Strengthening healthcare systems and supporting people and businesses...

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As restrictions begin to be eased, the path to economic recovery remains highly uncertain and vulnerable to a second wave of infections. Strengthening healthcare systems and supporting people and businesses to help adapt to a post-Covid world will be crucial, it says.

OECD

The containment measures brought in by most governments were necessary to slow the spread of the virus and limit the death toll, but they have also closed down business activity in many sectors and caused widespread economic hardship. • • •

Policymakers have used a vast array of exceptional measures to support healthcare systems and people’s incomes, as well as to help businesses and stabilize financial markets.

With little prospect of a vaccine becoming widely available this year, and faced with unprecedented uncertainty, the OECD has taken the unusual step of presenting two equally likely scenarios – one in which the virus is brought under control, and one in which a second global outbreak hits before the end of 2020.

If a second outbreak occurs, triggering a return to lockdowns, world economic output is forecast to plummet 7.6% this year, before climbing back 2.8% in 2021. At its peak, unemployment in the OECD economies would be more than double the rate prior to the outbreaks, with little recovery in jobs next year.

If a second wave of infections is avoided, global economic activity is expected to fall by 6% in 2020 and OECD unemployment to climb to 9.2% from 5.4% in 2019.

The economic impact of strict and relatively lengthy lockdowns in Europe will be particularly harsh. Euro area GDP is expected to plunge by 11½ per cent this year if a second wave breaks out, and by over 9% even if a second hit is avoided, while GDP in the United States will take a hit of 8.5% and 7.3% respectively, and Japan 7.3% and 6%. Emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa, meanwhile, face particular challenges of strained health systems, adding to the difficulties caused by a collapse in commodity prices, and their economies plunging by 9.1%, 10%, and 8.2% respectively in case of a double hit scenario, and 7.4%, 8% and 7.5% in case of a single hit. China’s and India’s GDPs will be relatively less affected, with a decrease of 3.7% and 7.3% respectively in case of a double hit and 2.6% and 3.7% in case of a single hit.

In both scenarios, the recovery, after an initial, rapid resumption of activity, will take a long time to bring output back to pre-pandemic levels, and the crisis will leave long-lasting scars – a fall in living standards, high unemployment and weak investment. Job losses in the most affected sectors, such as tourism, hospitality and entertainment, will particularly hit low-skilled, young, and informal workers.

The Outlook says government support to help people and business in the hard-hit sectors will need to evolve but to remain substantial.

Speaking ahead of a special OECD Roundtable Ministerial Meeting chaired by Spain’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Nadia Calviño, to discuss policy responses to the pandemic, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said: “Uncertainty is clearly extreme in the current context, but the implications of that for macroeconomic policies are not symmetric. Policy-makers were right not to be too slow to introduce emergency measures, and they should now guard against being too quick to withdraw them”.

“How governments act today will shape the post-Covid world for years to come,” he added. “This is true not only domestically, where the right policies can foster a resilient, inclusive and sustainable recovery, but also in terms of how countries cooperate to tackle global challenges together. International cooperation, a weak point so far in the policy response, can create confidence and have important positive spillover effects.”

Presenting the Outlook, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “Extraordinary policies will be needed to walk the tightrope towards recovery. Restarting economic activity while avoiding a second outbreak requires flexible and agile policy-making.” She said the safety nets and support currently provided for badly hit sectors would need to be adapted to help businesses and workers move to new activities.

“Higher public debt cannot be avoided, but debt-financed spending should be well-targeted to support the most vulnerable and provide the investment needed for a transition to a more resilient and sustainable economy,” she said.

“Governments must seize this opportunity to build a fairer economy, making competition and regulation smarter, modernizing taxes, government spending and social protection,” she added. “Prosperity comes from dialogue and cooperation. This holds true at the national and global level.”

The Outlook calls for stronger international cooperation to help end the pandemic more quickly, speed up the economic recovery, and avoid harming the catch-up process of emerging-market economies and developing countries. It also argues for encouraging more resilient supply chains, including larger holdings of stocks and more diversification of sources locally and internationally.

To read the original research at the OECD, please click here

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