U.S. agricultural exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 are projected at $152.0 billion, up $11.5 billion from the August forecast, driven by higher soybean and corn export values. The projection for soybean exports is up $5.9 billion to a record $26.3 billion due to higher unit values, strong demand from China, and record volumes. Corn exports are forecast up $4.2 billion to $13.2 billion as a result of reduced competition, higher unit values and record volumes. Cotton exports are forecast up $300 million to $5.3 billion based on higher unit values. Wheat exports are projected at $6.2 billion, up $200 million, on higher unit values and slightly larger volumes. Overall major agricultural bulk commodity exports are forecast to increase 24 percent from the previous projection. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast unchanged at $32.3 billion, as lower exports of pork and hides and skins offset increases in beef and poultry. Horticultural exports are forecast down $500 million to $34.5 billion due to expected decreases in miscellaneous products. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at a record $27.0 billion, an increase of $8.5 billion, largely due to strong soybean and corn demand. China is expected to once again become the largest U.S. agricultural market, a position it last held in FY 2017.

U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2021 are forecast at $137.0 billion, up $1.0 billion from the August forecast, led by expected increases in horticultural products. Horticultural imports are forecast up $400 million to $70.2 billion on increases in fresh fruit and vegetable imports.

Economic Recovery and Uncertainty in 2021

The global COVID-19 pandemic has already inflicted major setbacks to countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) around the world. Expectations of real GDP numbers have improved from the initial lockdown contractions, but recovery forecasts are still marked by uncertainty and prone to future setbacks. Several promising vaccine developments have provided increased optimism, pushing global equity markets higher and adding to hopes that GDP growth may return strong in 2021. Overall, global real GDP growth is expected to fall by about 4.4 percent in 2020. This is slightly less severe than was previously feared back in June. Global trade volume, which declined 9.2 percent in FY 2020, is expected to increase 7.2 percent in FY 2021. The expected economic recovery in 2021 will be shaped by both regional and overall global success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to boosting consumer spending.

Despite upward revisions to 2021 growth projections, projected real GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Economic recoveries will be dependent on the status of the pandemic and public health initiatives, including the successful distribution of vaccines. The U.S. economy contracts by 4.3 percent in 2020, with optimism for a recovery of 3.1 percent growth in 2021. The Eurozone economy declines by a more severe 8.3 percent in 2020, leading to a larger correction and a greater projected 2021 real GDP growth rate of 5.2 percent. The service-sector-dependent advanced economies continue to face enormous challenges imposed by the pandemic. Declines in consumer spending in recreation, food services, and travel account for most consumer demand declines. Savings rates continue to remain above pre-pandemic levels, signaling cautious consumer sentiment. The high savings rates hold potential for a large and swift economic recovery next year.

Real GDP in North America grows by a projected 3.3 percent in 2021 after a contraction of 4.9 percent in 2020. Canada and Mexico experience significant GDP declines in 2020, down 7.1 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively. These larger contractions factor into the larger rebounds forecast for 2021. Canada grows by 5.2 percent and Mexico by 3.5 percent.

South American real GDP collectively declines by 8.1 percent in 2020, with a 3.6 percent growth rate in 2021. Having faced negative GDP growth just prior to the pandemic, Argentina is expected to have real GDP decline by 11.8 percent in 2020. This substantial contraction allows ample room for future growth. Numerous recent policy changes help Argentina to grow by 4.9 percent in 2021. Experiencing notably weaker growth than recent years in the wake of the pandemic, China is expected to have real GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2020. In 2021, China’s growth rate returns to previous trend levels and grows at a rate of 8.2 percent. This return to large growth is dependent on many variables, including public health conditions, which have reduced consumer sentiment and caused the recovery of retail sales to lag the rest of the economy. Industrial production has and will continue to support China’s economic trajectory, but its success is also conditional on the recovery of its trading partners. Japan will improve from a 5.3 percent decline in GDP in 2020 to 2.3 percent growth in 2021. South Korea will improve from a decrease in GDP of 1.9 percent in 2020 to 2.9 percent growth in 2021.

Forecast reductions in tax revenue present additional challenges for rising debt levels due to pandemic-related fiscal spending across the globe. Governments reliant on high oil prices for financing public expenditures are expected to face tighter budgets going forward. International financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, have responded to the financial pressures by stating an increased tolerance for higher public debt in the short-term, as well as temporary debt moratoriums. Relaxation of debt burdens will allow countries to respond to the crisis with fiscal policy; however, it could increase pressure to cut expenditures in the future.

These forecasts still hold an atypically large margin of error, particularly to the downside, since the forecasts rely on public health and economic variables that are difficult to predict. For example, the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook forecast includes a protracted recovery scenario due to difficulty containing the spread of the virus and a delayed release of a vaccine. In this scenario, they estimate global GDP is 3 percent lower in 2021 than in their baseline forecast. There is also greater uncertainty in these forecasts due to changes in consumer preferences and behavior, which have dramatically shifted from the pre-pandemic world. It is yet to be seen how many of these changes will persist in the future.

To read the full report, please click here.

Bart Kenner is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

Hui Jiang is an Agricultural Economist in the Economic Research Service at the United States Department of Agriculture.

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In recent years, the case for U.S. participation in the TPP has only become more compelling as the political and economic importance of the Asia-Pacific region has grown and concerns about Beijing’s economic model have mounted. East Asia is bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic before the rest of the world, and deepening economic ties with the engines of global growth will be an even more valuable proposition in the midst of a deep recession. Moreover, the pandemic has revealed serious vulnerabilities in supply chain networks, and the common standards and rules of the TPP can serve as the basis for establishing trusted supply chains in the region. But is there a path for the United States to return to the TPP or to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which the 11 remaining countries finalized without the United States?

This report examines four options that the next administration would have for reengaging the CPTPP countries on trade: returning to the original TPP agreement, formally acceding to the CPTPP, seeking a broader renegotiation with the CPTPP as a baseline, or working on a narrower sectoral deal as an immediate, interim step. It then assesses the feasibility of each option based on domestic considerations and developments, as well as input from the CPTPP countries.

Domestically, a policy window may be opening for CPTPP reentry. Whereas trade was seen as toxic only four years ago, recent polls have found growing bipartisan public support for trade. At the same time, however, the views of the political parties on trade appear to be shifting. Some observers have gone so far as to suggest that the United States is on the precipice of a new trade order, with Republicans more protectionist and Democrats friendlier toward trade. This makes the domestic landscape and the outcome of a congressional trade vote uncertain. The strong bipartisan congressional vote in favor of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) led many to conclude that this agreement should be the new U.S. template for trade agreements. However, there may be factors unique to the USMCA that would not be in play in a negotiation with Asian countries. Another complicating factor is the fate of Trade Promotion Authority, set to expire in July 2021, which is a prerequisite for negotiations in the view of U.S. trading partners.

The prospect of CPTPP reentry also depends on the extent to which its members would be open to revisions proposed by the United States. To take the temperature of capitals in Asia, the Asia Society Policy Institute spoke with a dozen current and former trade officials from a diverse set of CPTPP countries. Those interviewed unanimously affirmed that they would welcome the United States back, but not at any cost. They are wary of being asked to make extensive revisions, having been scarred by the U.S. withdrawal after expending significant political capital during the TPP negotiations. Those countries  were accustomed to the uncertainties of the congressional approval process, but they now also worry about the presidential election cycle.

With the foregoing considerations in mind, the report offers a road map for the next administration to reengage with the CPTPP countries. Recommended steps include the following:

• Launch an interim sectoral agreement: As a first step, pursue a limited, sector-specific Asia-Pacific trade deal with the CPTPP members, and perhaps other countries, to set high standards, rebuild trust, and build momentum. Promising topics include:
  • Digital trade, an area that represents more and more of overall trade, particularly now that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of the global economy.
  • Trade in medical and other essential products, a sector in which COVID-19 has focused attention on trade restrictions and vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
  • Trade and the environment/climate, which may be of particular interest to a Democratic White House.
• Invest in competitiveness and adjustment at home: Build support for trade agreements generally and the CPTPP specifically at home by investing in competitiveness and adjustment policies and programs. Doing so would take the pressure off trade agreements to achieve goals they are not designed to tackle, such as ensuring more equitable income distribution.
• Make the case for trade: Explain to the American public that deeper U.S. trade engagement with Asia-Pacific partners is integral to building an alternative economic model to Chinese state capitalism, diversifying U.S. trade beyond China and, ideally, promoting reforms within China.
• Prioritize negotiating proposals: Develop and prioritize concrete proposals for U.S. reengagement with the CPTPP based on input from business, labor, and civil society groups throughout the country, as well as Congress.
• Consult with trading partners: Consult with the CPTPP members to understand their limits, priorities, and concerns around U.S. reengagement.

These steps would pave the way for U.S. reentry into the CPTPP. Even then, CPTPP reengagement would be a heavy lift that would require flexibility and creativity from both the United States and the CPTPP countries. Returning to the original TPP by signing on to a five-year-old agreement that faced considerable opposition at home is not a realistic proposition in 2021. The approach with the best odds of success would likely fall between formal CPTPP accession and a more extensive renegotiation. For that to work, the United States would need to focus on the most important changes and modernizations needed, while the CPTPP countries would need to be more open to changes than during a typical accession.

Given the domestic and international challenges outlined in this report, it is understandable that many would question whether returning to the CPTPP is worth all the trouble. Despite those concerns, rejoining the CPTPP is one of the most impactful ways in which the United States can work with likeminded countries in the region to promote an alternative economic model to state-led capitalism and help shape the economic future of a region that is increasingly the engine of global growth and innovation.

Wendy Cutler is the Vice President and Managing Director of Washington DC Office of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former Deputy USTR.

To download the full report, please click here.

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All the world’s leading economies, including the United States, embrace multiple forms of policies that channel resources towards targeted sectors. Despite distaste for the term in some quarters, elements of industrial policy have always been a significant feature of U.S. policymaking. Since World War II, Washington has used military procurement and large research budgets to accelerate the development of cutting-edge technologies that serve as the foundation of the modern economy, including the Internet, vaccines, satellites, supercomputing, and the components of smartphones.

In response to today’s economic challenges—particularly managing the Covid-19 pandemic and the rise of China—prominent U.S. policymakers and political figures on both sides of the aisle, as well as business leaders, have called for more active government efforts to boost domestic production and innovation. However, there is significant disagreement about how to do so.

This report focuses on the role of government in supporting innovation in critical technologies, although there are other challenges—notably Covid-19—where greater federal intervention could be appropriate. To help further the discussion, we reviewed historical approaches to industrial policy in three advanced democracies: Japan, Western Europe, and the United States. Reflecting on those experiences, we present in this report a set of ten “first principles” intended to guide a more active U.S. innovation strategy to reaffirm the country’s leadership in critical technologies.

Dylan Gerstel is a research assistant for Economics Program Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Matthew P. Goodman is the Senior Vice President for Economics and the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

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• Trade tensions continue to mount as global economic growth slows. The U.S. economy remains on much better footing, largely due to solid wage growth and consumer spending.
• Soybean prices surged late last quarter based on fears of delayed maturity of the U.S. soybean crop and hopes of resuming China market access. Ethanol producers are dialing back production after contending with negative margins, trade issues, blending waivers, and volatile corn prices.
• Cool spring weather lifted livestock weights, driving increased protein supplies this summer. Trade volume is expanding and U.S. meat and poultry producers will soon see the benefits. Dairy cow numbers are down 82,000 head year-over-year, weighing on total U.S. milk production.
• Foreign buyers are defaulting on cotton contracts after prices dropped significantly in recent months. Rice prices have surged in the last quarter and shipments to Mexico alone are up 45% so far in the marketing year.
• Total shipments for the 2018-19 almond crop year finished strong despite the trade headwinds, bringing ending stocks to their lowest level since 2012. Prices for process oranges and wine grapes are expected to be soft over the next quarter due to increased production, weak domestic demand, and ongoing trade issues.
• Moderate natural gas prices are likely to put downward pressure on power prices nationally while driving the continued retirement of less-efficient generating capacity.
• With most large fiber optic transport companies already acquired, institutional investors are eyeing fiber-rich rural operators as their next targets.
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In April 2019, the United States and Japan held their first round of negotiations toward a new bilateral trade agreement. The Trump Administration is pursuing the talks with Japan under U.S. Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) procedures, potentially allowing for expedited legislative consideration of a concluded agreement. As the fourthlargest U.S. trade partner, Japan is a long-standing U.S. priority for trade negotiations, especially as recent Japanese trade agreements, including the EU-Japan FTA and the TPP-11 (successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) following U.S. withdrawal), lower Japan’s tariffs on imports from several countries, placing U.S. exporters at a disadvantage. In August, President Trump and Prime Minister Abe announced they reached an agreement on “core principles” of a trade agreement covering agricultural market access, some industrial goods tariffs, and rules on digital trade. Both sides have released few details on the exact terms, but indicate they aim to finalize and sign thedeal by late September.

The announced deal reportedly does not cover trade commitments on motor vehicles, a long-standing area of bilateral tension. President Trump has stated he is using the threat of increased U.S. auto tariffs to influence the broader negotiations. On May 17, 2019, following a Section 232 investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce, President Trump proclaimed motor vehicle and partsimports, particularly from Japan and the European Union (EU), a threat to U.S. national security. This grants the President the authority to impose import restrictions. The President directed the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to negotiate with Japan (and the EU) to address this threat and report back within 180 days. Japan strongly opposed U.S. Section 232 tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in place since March 2018, but did not retaliate against the tariffs, in contrast with several other U.S. trade partners. Given that motor vehicles are the top Japanese export to the United States, U.S. import restrictions on the sector would likely create a strong backlash from Japan.

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