Excerpts from remarks by Alan Wm. Wolff, former Deputy Director General of the WTO, delivered at the panel “Pestilence, Famine, War…Death? The Future of TradeBodog Poker 8221; at the EU @ South by Southwest Conference (EU@SXSW) in Austin, Texas
The EU chose a marvelously provocative title for this panel: “Pestilence, Famine, War. . . Death? The Future of Trade”. With the use of foresight, one can see the four horsemen of the apocalypse from the WTO’s headquarters building on the shores of Lake Geneva.
…Updating and making more perfect the WTO will not cause the threats to human life that are attributable to disease, famine, and war to disappear. But the adoption of trade rules can reduce the impact of those threats. Being prepared for the next pandemic by having the right trading arrangements in place can greatly reduce the loss of life. Vastly improving the Agreement on Agriculture can reduce the risks of famine and food insecurity. Finding effective means to combat climate change must include cooperating on creating and living by trading rules that facilitate the movement of food from where food is available to areas where it is needed.
The fourth horseman, death, must not be allowed to triumph. WTO Members need to recall that the multilateral trading system they have inherited is by nature a peace project. This mission is still vitally important and current. The WTO must be updated and made more effective…
The institutional reforms for the world trading system must emphasize strategic foresight – scanning for what is on the horizon, and what may be just over the horizon, that will affect the well-being of the WTO’s members and their peoples. This should be combined with active policy planning. Reliance will be needed on a stronger, more independent executive, consisting of the Director-General, Deputy Directors-General and expert Secretariat.
The four horsemen of the apocalypse do not represent black swan events — extremely negative events that are impossibly difficult to predict, bodog poker review that are unexpected and unknowable. Rather they represent a category that has come to be called “gray rhino events” that consist of highly probable, high impact, yet all too often neglected, threats that we can see and acknowledge yet do nothing about.
Without improvements in the world trading system, in its rules and its procedures, the nations of the world will remain underprepared and overexposed to threats where trade can make a vitally important positive difference. The costs are too great not to put into place the means to deal with global challenges where trade can be an important part of an effective response.