Since the World Energy Council last published its World Energy Scenarios in 2016, we have experienced three years of comparatively high, carbon-centric energy demand and a marked acceleration in renewable energy developments. A new pattern of geostrategic competition is emerging that is further straining the multilateral system and impacting global trade.

What has changed most, however, is the speed and volatility of changes and unevenness of impacts. Fragmentation and polarisation of leadership and poor economic returns limiting the license to invest for market players are emerging as some of the biggest risks in managing successful energy transition.

Meanwhile, energy leaders are also challenged to make sense of the fast-shifting landscape of innovation and the new spirt of entrepreneurialism in energy. A fresh focus on energy systems innovation and the emerging phenomenon of “disruption-as-usual” is both timely and relevant to energy transition leaders within and beyond the energy sector.

The report, “Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040,” presents three global storylines to 2040, with supporting systems thinking maps, comparative analysis and regional summaries. It includes a discussion of new insights, reflecting deeper shifts in the energy system innovation landscape, and provides a broader view on “how to use” the scenarios.

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The pace and direction of the global energy transition is part of a much wider set of global developments. The Grand Transition is under way and implies a fundamental socio-economic transition in response to the promise of a coming era of digital and ecological productivity. Within this broader context, the outlook for nuclear and other forms of energy is being shaped by a complex and unpredictable interplay of global drivers of change – including decentralisation, decarbonisation, digitalisation and evolving geopolitics. Multiple possible pathways are emerging for managing a successful global energy transition from hydrocarbon molecules to low-carbon energy.

Recognising the diversity of perspectives on nuclear energy, the World Energy Council, with contributions from the World Nuclear Association, has gathered insights from senior energy leaders on the future of the industry. This work has contributed to the Council’s new global nuclear perspectives, which have been fed into an update of the Council’s World Energy Scenarios.

In this report, the future of nuclear is described through the lens of the Council’s World Energy Scenarios archetype framework – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock – in three plausible, alternative pathways for the future development of the sector. This report also describes implications for the role of nuclear energy in the global energy transition.

This report aims at facilitating strategic sharing of knowledge between experts and promoting a better quality of strategic conversation among the Council’s members, energy stakeholders and policy shapers.

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