• Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

• Robert E. DeFrancesco, III, Partner, Wiley Rein
• Jean Simard, President and CEO, Aluminum Association of Canada
• Tom Dobbins, President and CEO, The Aluminum Association
• Moderator: Deanna Tanner Okun, Managing Partner, Adduci, Mastriani & Schaumberg LLP, and former Chair of the International Trade Commission

• Q & A with Audience Moderated by Ken – Webinar attendees are encouraged to use the Q&A function on the Zoom app to submit their questions in real time.

On Thursday, September 3rd, WITA welcomed U.S. and Canadian business leaders to discuss the tariffs President Trump reimposed on aluminum from Canada under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, after determining that aluminum imports from Canada “threaten to impair the national security of the United States.”

Supplementary Materials:

Deanna Tanner Okun Introduction Presentation

Robert DeFrancesco Opening Statement

To view the Century Aluminum Company’s CEO, Michael Bless’s remarks on the aluminum tariffs, please click here. 

Wiley Rein Presentation

Aluminum Association of Canada 

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES
(in order of appearance)

Robert DeFrancesco is a Partner at Wiley Rein LLP. His practice involves all aspects of international trade and trade remedy proceedings. He has particular expertise in both U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty proceedings and export control matters before the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the U.S. Court of International Trade, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

In addition, Robert has represented numerous clients in both the Section 232 Aluminum investigation before the Bureau of Industry and Security at the U.S. Commerce Department and in the Section 301 investigation of China before USTR.

Robert has also actively assisted in World Trade Organization (WTO) matters, providing advice regarding WTO obligations and dispute settlement proceedings for various clients and governments. Clients represented in these proceedings come from industries such as primary aluminum, aluminum extrusions, petrochemicals, steel, semiconductors, renewable energy, and consumer goods, involving products from diverse economies such as China, Brazil, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, and Turkey.

Jean Simard is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Aluminium Association of Canada (AAC) has been since 2009. Jean Simard is the industry’s official representative and spokesperson with governments, business associations and the media, as well as with international organizations linked to the industry.

Mr. Simard holds a degree in Civil Law from the University of Ottawa, and is a member of the Barreau du Québec. He possesses extensive professional experience in public and government relations, mainly in sustainable development, energy and environmental affairs. Prior to joining the AAC, he was Vice-President Sustainable Development, Public and Governmental Affairs, at Gaz Métro, a Quebec-based energy company.

Mr. Simard represents the AAC at the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) and at the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI). He is a member of the Board of Directors and of the Executive Committee of the Quebec Industrial Aluminium Cluster (AluQuébec), as well as a member of the Board (Treasurer) of the Conseil patronal de l’environnement du Québec (CPEQ), and of the Quebec Aluminium Research Development Centre (CQRDA). Co-founder and member of the Steering committee of SWITCH, the Alliance for a greener economy, he is one of the Leaders of the Canadian Smart Prosperity initiative.

He is a member of the Advisory Council of the newly created Canadian Institute for Climate Choices. He is a member of the Steering Committee of Forum Concertation on Circular Economy and of the Public Affairs Committee of the Quebec Employers Council. He chairs the Board of Directors of the Quebec Music & Art Conservatories Foundation and is a member of the Board of Petits Chanteurs du Mont-Royal. He is also a member of the Ambassador Circle of Nature Conservancy Canada’s, Quebec Chapter.

Tom Dobbins joined the Aluminum Association as President & CEO in March of 2020 after leading the American Composites Manufacturers Association for over 13 years. There he focused on growing markets for composites in aerospace, automotive and building and construction. During his tenure Congress included provisions to advance the use of composites or advanced materials in 6 consecutive infrastructure bills.

He has also worked for two other major associations leading their government affairs programs, the Executive branch of government where he created an outreach and education program for small businesses, 3 Members of Congress and a Congressional Committee, and one of the premiere boutique lobbying firms in its time.

Moderator: Deanna Tanner Okun is the managing partner at Adduci, Mastriani & Schaumberg LLP. Deanna is an international trade lawyer providing legal and strategic international trade policy advice to steer companies through the intersection where innovation confronts barriers, such as intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, or regulatory hurdles.

Deanna’s practice involves all aspects of unfair trade litigation and trade remedy advocacy. Her Section 337 work includes all stages of litigation at the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) from preinstitution consultation to post-remedy enforcement with Customs and Border Protection (CBP). She also represents companies in Title VII antidumping and countervailing duty investigations before the ITC and Department of Commerce (DOC). In 2017, her client secured the first negative preliminary AD/CVD determination in over seven years. Deanna’s work in trade remedy proceedings on behalf of U.S. companies extends to previously rarely used trade statutes, including Section 201, 232, and 301 investigations. Deanna participated in one of only two Section 201 investigations in the past twenty years, winning a successful remedy for her client. She works closely with contacts in the executive, judicial, and legislative branches of the government to create innovative solutions to her clients’ legal and business challenges.

Deanna has extensive experience as a top administrator, regulator, enforcer, legislative aide, and lawyer. She served two terms as Chairman during her twelve years of service as a member of the ITC. During her tenure as a Commissioner, she ruled on hundreds of cases involving allegations of patent, trademark and copyright infringement as well as other types of unfair acts such as trade secrets. As Commissioner, she was involved in numerous AD/CVD investigations and participated in almost all recent global safeguard investigations under the Trade Act of 1974, including investigations under Section 201 and the China-specific safeguard investigations under Section 421. Prior to her appointment to the ITC, she served as counsel for international affairs to U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski and practiced international trade law with a large DC-based law firm. During her tenure at the ITC, Deanna was nominated to be Deputy United States Trade Representative.

In 2012, Deanna was named the Outstanding Woman of the Year by the Association of Women in International Trade, a chapter of the Organization of Women in International Trade. She has served on the Federal Circuit Advisory Council since 2013. In 2019, for the seventh consecutive year, Managing Intellectual Property named Deanna one of the Top 250 Women in IP. She was recently selected for the 2020 Roster for NAFTA Chapter 19 Binational Panels (U.S.).

The post WITA Webinar: Aluminum Imports and Tariffs – The Business Interests and Impacts appeared first on WITA.

On Thursday, June 4th, WITA hosted a webinar examining critical issues ahead of the July 1^st implementation date, and the impact of COVID-19 on the ability of companies to achieve their implementation goals in the midst of the pandemic.

WITA Webinar Featuring: 

Jamieson Greer, Partner at King & Spalding and former Chief of Staff in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Kenneth Smith Ramos, Partner, AGON and Mexico’s Former Chief Negotiator for NAFTA

Governor Matt Blunt, President, American Automotive Policy Council and former Governor of Missouri

Kellie Meiman Hock, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates

Webinar Summary:

The webinar began with Moderator Kellie Meiman Hock asking Jamieson Greer about the likelihood of meeting the July 1st deadline for the implementation of USMCA. He compared this process to NAFTA, when the uniform regulations did not come out until a year the official implementation. Since we have already seen these regulations, Jamieson expressed optimism about the pace of the implementation process. He elaborated on the details of the labor value content rules for automotive industries and other labor department regulations.

Governor Matt Blunt then responded to Kellie’s question regarding the transition from NAFTA to USMCA regulations within the automotive sector, calling the July 1st deadline ambitious but doable. He, like Jamieson, was pleased that the uniform regulations came out, but saw some initial areas for improvement: weight averaging for light and heavy duty trucks would make industry compliance easier, and an administration-granted period of duty deferral would help companies get their documents organized in order to demonstrate compliance.

Kellie moved on to the topic of Mexico’s timeline for compliance, asking Kenneth Smith Ramos about how Mexican factories had been faring during the COVID-19 pandemic. He cited the disconnect between the North American countries’ list of essential industries as an ongoing issue contributing to supply chain disruption, but asserted Mexico’s overall preparedness to implement USMCA at the regulatory level.

The panelists also discussed the potential weaknesses of the rapid response mechanism within the agreement and the overall production levels of Mexican suppliers, followed by a Q&A session that addressed viewer questions about the cost of compliance for auto companies, the process of selecting panelists, and how the USMCA ties in with sustainability practices in trade.

The post WITA Webinar: COVID-19 and USMCA – The Pandemic and Implementation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement appeared first on WITA.

On Thursday, April 16, WITA co-hosted a webinar with the Asia Society Policy Institute on the impact COVID-19 has had on global medical supply chains and international trade.

The event featured (in order of appearance):

• Wendy Cutler, Vice President and Managing Director of Washington D.C. Office, Asia Society Policy Institute
• Ambassador Ashok Mirpuri, Singapore’s Ambassador to the United States
• Simon J. Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
• Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, President, National Foreign Trade Council

The post WITA Webinar: Beggar Thy Neighbor, Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Health Care Supply Chains appeared first on WITA.

Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project

By: Madelyn Cunningham

On February 4th, 2020, WITA hosted Rich Thau as a keynote speaker, as he gave his presentation, “Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project.” Kimberly Ellis, WITA Board member and Principal of the Monument Policy Group, introduced Thau with his business title, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, and his other project, the Swing Voter Project. By grouping swing voters into two categories: Obama-Trump voters and Romney-Clinton voters, Thau has set out to predict the outcome of swing voting counties in the Upper Midwest.

Thau began by discussing his methodology of picking locations to study, through a color-coded map released by CNBC. The map depicted in dark red the highest rates of swing voting in the 2016 elections from Obama to Trump. Each dark red county was cross-examined by population, and selected if not too sparsely populated.

But why take on this project? According to Thau, there were three reasons. Firstly, in 2016, inconsistent and purely quantitative pollsters did not account for the entire opinion of those they were polling. Thau highlighted the need to not only ask what their opinion was, but also why, prompting his qualitative research design.

Secondly, Thau argued that no one should be shocked by the 2020 election outcome as they were in 2016, especially with the amount of contention in the recent political climate. Lastly, the project should be able to uncover key insights into swing voting habits.

Thau then moved on into his key findings thus far. He found that from the areas he polled, the swing voters were low information voters, receiving most of their news and political information from local broadcastings limited to sports, weather, crime, and traffic, local websites, facebook, national morning TV shows, and “news aggregators” accessible from their device. 

To build on the fact that these are low information voters, Thau asked participants to identify the Democratic candidates for the upcoming 2020 election. He first asked them how confident they were in identifying the Democratic candidates from official photos on a 1 to 10 scale.

In August, Bernie Sanders was the first most identified, at 8.3, followed by Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Beto O’Rourke. Pete Buttigieg was less than 2 and has not shifted since the scale was generated in August. For comparison, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, though not a presidential candidate for 2020, was ranked by identification rate in 4th place after Elizabeth Warren. 

In October, Thau was interviewed by Michael Smerconish about the likelihood that Obama-Trump voters would vote for Trump again in the fall. He discussed a hypothetical match-up between Obama and Trump. In each focus group, roughly 2/3rds would choose President Trump. Even though Trump’s campaign promise to bring back manufacturing jobs in the area had not been followed through, these voters were still with the president because of his “America First” agenda.

Compared to the Obama-Trump voters, swing voters that voted Romney then Clinton responded they would vote for Obama in an Obama-Trump match-up.

Thau also found that there was not much “nostalgia” for the Obama-Biden administration among the swing voters. Even participants from Joe Biden’s hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania, felt no connection to him as a candidate, saying that he was not truly from there to begin with. 

Thau’s third key finding tied into how the state of the economy directly relates to the likelihood of Trump’s reelection, as many voted for him because of his background in business. If the economy turns, support for him would dwindle as he is weak in key issues important to the swing voter demographic. 

In suburban Minneapolis, participants pointed out that he had made “zero effort” to fix the healthcare system. If a democratic candidate were to run on the platform of better, affordable healthcare, this would garner support from swing voters. Trump’s behavior and presence was also analyzed, and while some were supportive, many participants were embarrassed when seeing him on their TV or device. The main dissidents for Trump’s behavior being the Romney-Clinton voters.

As mentioned in his CNN interview with Michael Smerconish, while he did not follow through on the promise to restore manufacturing jobs, his “America First” agenda in foreign policy has won over the swing voters in the Midwest. Relating to foreign affairs, while Trump has been strong with trade policy, the hot button issue for these voters was immigration. While not interchangeable, swing voters view immigration and trade as two issues on “the same ‘America First’ coin.”  

The swing voters do not view trade as a key voting issue, they know more about negotiations with China than they do about the USMCA. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, when asked about whether they knew anyone who personally benefited or was harmed from Trump’s trade policy, there was no response from the focus group.

To encapsulate the swing voters’ knowledge on trade, Thau stated that one response summarized the entire demographic, “we have used so much out of America, and imposing those tariffs will eventually move those jobs back here even though it will cost us more.” 

To further explain the swing voter’s engagement with trade policy, Thau explained that about 3/4ths believe that America’s efforts to secure a fair trade deal with China will be worth the higher prices on imports from other countries. However there is a limit to their tariff support, as if the trade war with China was prolonged and prices were significantly raised, Trump would lose support. All of the swing voters believed that only American Swing Voters beared the cost for tariffs.

Shown a clip of Senator Klobuchar on trade, her approval rating from the Wilkes-Barre focus group increased drastically as soon as she discussed her support for “Made in America” goods. There is a growing mistrust of corporations, but where Senator Warren’s statements about trade are supported by focus groups, their support for her falls when discussing how she will pay for her programs like “Medicare for All” by taking from big corporations. The participants, while in support of the issue, respond that to expect the top income bracket and big corporations to pay for this plan is unachievable.

Moving on to bonus issues, swing voters believe that the weather is getting “weirder” when asked about environmental policy. There is an awareness of climate change, and they are critical of regulatory rollbacks affecting the environment. When asked about the environmental rollbacks, participants in Wilkes-Barre said that they affected the air and water quality and ultimately the health of the community, which could not afford basic healthcare in most cases. There was an overall sense of fear and worry about the state of the environment, and it was more of a key voting issue than healthcare policy.

Participants were also asked to fill in the blank: “Make America _________ Again.” Overwhelmingly, they responded to make America “America” again and “fair.” But there was no consensus as to what they specifically wanted America to be, and Thau argued that this was one of the key problems for Democrats, as while united against Trump, there is no common platform or idea of what they think America should be. 

Thau discussed his findings relating to the impeachment trial of President Trump. The swing voters viewed the trial was just a distraction and demonstration that the Democratic party leaders are out of touch with “regular” Americans. They blame impeachment for the lack of policy and coverage on issues that matter to them.

To conclude his presentation, Thau summarized his key arguments through the various swing voter trends found in his project thus far. He stated that there needs to be attention paid to those who are low information voters, Trump’s “America First” sentiment maintained his support among the demographic, the economy is a determining factor in his reelection, and there was no consensus on what America should be going forward.

To get updates on the findings from Rich Thau’s project, sign up for his newsletter on SwingVoterProject.com.

Kimberly Ellis of the Monument Policy Group joined Rich Thau onstage for a debrief on his presentation. She first asked for Thau’s thoughts on Mike Bloomberg’s prospects in the upcoming race. Thau responded with the fact that in many of the counties he visited, Bloomberg was, for the most part, an unfamiliar candidate.

One of the respondents in Wilkes-Barre pointed out that there was no grass-roots support for Bloomberg, that instead Bloomberg was just a billionaire spending money on his campaign. In contrast, Trump ran on the platform that his campaign was supported from the bottom up, and not just from large personal donations.

In regard to trade policy, Ellis went on to ask whether or not the swing voters supported Trump’s trade policy. Thau stated that they were in absolute support, and that it was not necessarily his specific agreements and policy work, but his messaging of “being on the case”. There is no awareness of the economic effects of his deals, but they are more focused on progress overall.

Featuring:

Rich Thau, President & Co-Founder, Engagious

Kimberly Ellis, Principal, Monument Policy Group

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project appeared first on WITA.

Meet the [Trade] Press, Reporters Roundtable

By: Madelyn Cunningham

On February 4th, 2020, WITA hosted a panel discussion of trade reporters entitled, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” Similar to the press roundtable of the inaugural WITC last year, this panel allowed insight into the opinions of various reporters, from junior correspondents to senior editors. With trade on the forefront of global news, hearing from those who break the latest stories gave the audience a look into trade’s growing importance in the media. 

The reporters featured in the panel were Jenny Leonard, a trade reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, a global economics correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a trade and economics correspondent at the New York Times. Moderating the discussion was Ambassador Susan Schwab, a strategic advisor at Mayer Brown LLP.

To begin the panel, Ambassador Schwab gave the roundtable context on the recent crisis of dispute settlement within the WTO, specifically on the provision Uruguay Round Agreement Act, that states that every five years, the United States Congress can vote by joint resolution to move the United States out of the WTO. While this matter has not been voted on since 2005, it still holds valuable insight into the political side of trade agreements. Schwab then goes on to ask the panel what they hear about the WTO on the Hill, and whether or not they think a joint resolution to vote will arise in Congress.

Ana Swanson responded by discussing the relevance of the WTO, as not only is there a general argument against its relevance in global politics, but it is more so being used as a political counter against the Trump administration over the need to fix its dispute settlement process. She stated that while there is a growing questioning of the WTO’s relevance, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo seems to be taking these criticisms seriously, and that the recent crises may be worked on in the future at the institutional level.

Moving on to whether or not Congress will take a vote, Swanson concluded that given the high margin of disapproval for the vote in 2005, and the continued non-voting trend throughout the rest of the decade, it would be difficult to pass in Congress.

Ambassador Susan Schwab went on to ask, in relation to the coronavirus and U.S.-China relations as a whole, what the timing prospects were for a Phase Two Deal and so on. David Lynch spoke on the Phase One Deal to introduce his response, as its implementation will most likely delay any further deals to follow it, as the Chinese government would rather first implement Phase One before any additional deals are mediated. Lynch predicted that the Phase Two deal will be something that develops next year, after the 2020 Presidential Election.

Jenny Leonard of Bloomberg News follows up on this point with her opinion as to the contents and timing of the Phase Two Deal, stating that even Phase One would be a win for the Trump administration. Thus, the Phase Two Deal may not necessarily be on the forefront of his trade agenda. 

James Politi argued that even with the trade deals with China, the tariffs will stay, as with the recent unfolding of the coronavirus and its effect on the Chinese economy, the need to implement Phase One has been lifted. Over the long-term however, if these purchases have not been followed through, the administration and the USTR will be put under a lot of pressure in the enforcement of the first deal, setting back Phase Two even further. To conclude, Politi emphasizes that the outcome of the implementation of Phase One and creation of future trade deals with China is still unclear, as is the perception of whether or not these deals were a win for the Trump administration.

The panel was skeptical of the implementation of Phase One before the presidential election later this year, as Trump’s trade promises have been kept and used on his campaign trail. Jenny Leonard followed with the skepticism that while the drafting of Phase Two is still in the air, so is the implementation of Phase One. 

In regard to working with our allies, Schwab asked James Politi about the prospects of the U.S. and the E.U. working together in the future. Politi responded that the trust between the U.S. and the E.U. has been broken down, so having one front against Chinese trade is very unlikely as the E.U. has felt fairly targeted in recent trade policy and tariff implementation. Politi argues that the E.U. would thus take a more “pragmatic” approach, instead of only aligning with the United States in trade policy, they would rather build a trade relationship with China.

David Lynch made the interesting point that the United States no longer shares the same values as the European Union, a statement contrary to popular and academic belief throughout history. He goes on to state that Trump has further diverged from the European Union going as far as to say that the institution is worse than China. 

James Politi follows up on the shift of the European Union, as the trilateral discussions were stalled due to misgivings and an overall lack of trust. He goes on to discuss the greater pressure on member states to enact deals with Trump with its growing isolation from world powers.

Ana Swanson states that while the U.S., Europe, and Japan may have a common interest in addressing unfair economic competition from China, there is also competition among those countries for the China market. Whether through multilateral export control or investment into Chinese services like Huawei, there is a lot of contradiction between this so called “common interest” and the actual actions of those countries.

Ambassador Susan Schwab summarizes the panelists’ prediction for future trade deals with China as a mini-deal being more likely than an actual Phase Two Deal, and even further more so than no deal at all, at least before the election. Schwab claimed that the general deadline for any other deal would be until July 1st, 2021, whether that be a follow up to Phase One, or a mini-deal with tariff proclamation authority.

Moving forward, Ambassador Schwab brings up the UK as a general talking point. James Politi discussed the implications of Brexit, as negotiations were supposed to be underway for a trade deal with the U.S., similar tensions between the U.S. and the E.U. have come up. As negotiations have not been started and there is no set launch date, so similarly to the pane’s prediction for further U.S. China deals, a mini-deal is more likely than one that is more comprehensive. Overall, U.K. trade deals will be “slow-rolling” post-Brexit.

In regard to trade deals from other countries, while the possibility of a trade deal with Japan and Vietnam received no comment, Ana Swanson touched on how a deal with India would most likely be a mini-deal, this deal still being one of the largest deals between the U.S. and India. She goes on to speak more broadly on mini-deals, there is no set motivation for the administration to return to more comprehensive trade deals, as not only is it a more streamlined process in avoiding a Congressional vote, but it makes no difference to the American public.

To get at trade policy and politics, Ambassador Schwab asked the panel to elaborate on trends of U.S. trade politics and the legacy of the Trump administration’s trade policy as it stands today. Jenny Leonard begins by claiming that “bashing” China works in favor of the administration and will be present in all administrations to come, no matter the party. 

David Lynch follows up on this by claiming the president “blew up” conversations that were previously sterile, this has resulted in a shake up of the current system. He claimed that these deals were made for President Trump to use in his campaign, but there will be various costs to this approach, such as irritating allies, economic inefficiency due to company cost, but they will eventually even out.

Ana Swanson then discusses the difference of the trade agenda a couple months ago versus today, with the December tariffs on China about to come into effect, an unclear timeline of trade deals like the USMCA and Phase One, however these issues were resolved within the past months. This difference in the trade climate has been translated into political victories, possibly even having long-lasting positive political implications. Swanson also brought up the point that the USMCA was a bipartisan effort, as the trade agreement brought in elements of the democratic and labor union platform.

Swanson questioned whether or not a Democratic president would be able to reach the populist Republicans to form a trade coalition in the future, but overall trade policy is shifting into a different, more bipartisan direction.

To conclude the discussion, Ambassador Schwab asked the panel where they individually got their news, especially in their interactions with various political institutions. While panelists said the various news sources represented in the room, interestingly enough twitter has also become a big outlet for news in recent years.

Featuring:

Jenny Leonard, Trade Reporter, Bloomberg News

David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent, Washington Post

James Politi, World Trade Editor, Financial Times

Ana Swanson, Trade and Economics Correspondent, New York Times

Ambassador Susan Schwab, moderator, Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Meet the [Trade] Press appeared first on WITA.

The event began with remarks from Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President of Trade Center Management Associates and Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. We were fortunate enough to hear Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, as he discussed the dissolution of the appellate body and his thoughts on global dispute settlements going forward. This was followed by an armchair discussion with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around how China had changed its own image within the last 20 years and the radical shifts it has made from being relatively closed off to countries who were not direct allies to joining the WTO in 2001. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Since the Trump administration’s Phase One deal, China has become more cautious as to its approach to its relationship with the United States and there were voiced concerns from all panelists as to China’s willingness to follow through with their end of the agreement let alone get to a Phase Two before the end of the coming general election cycle. The panelists were Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Professor Ann Lee, author of  “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”, Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, Clete Willems, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, and Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader at Ernst & Young.

The NextGenTrade panel was centered around the evolution of trade due to advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, 3D printing, as well as financial technology developments. While 3D trade was not as disruptive of an invention as was expected with regards to its ability to rapidly manufacture and place highly developed countries over developing ones, the ability of AI to do that was discussed in depth. Another issue that was brought up was blokchain’s ability to carry out anonymous, financial transactions that could skew U.S. financial markets with disruptive, malicious financial technologies from China, Russia, and Iran.

While illegal and purposefully harmful technologies were discussed, there could also be a market for legal and productive digital trade surrounding financial tools bolstered by AI and insured in its ability to be untampered with by blockchain based networks. Which type of digital trade economy develops over the next few years is dependent on which country holds dominance in both financial and economic markets. The panelists were Susan Lund the Director of Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, Julia Nielson the Head of the Development Division at the Trade & Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Paul Triolo the Practice Head of Geo-Technology at the Eurasia Group, and Jake Colvin, Executive Director of the Global Innovation Forum.

The next morning panel was the press roundtable, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” With trade on the forefront of many news outlets, this year was particularly interesting to hear from members of the press. From senior experts to junior correspondents, Ambassador Susan C. Schwab of Mayer Brown LLP moderated a discussion between prominent reporters on current trade topics and trends. Not only were the discussants able to share their experiences with the press, but they also gave their personal insight and predictions for how key trade issues will progress and be resolved. The featured panelists were Jenny Leonard, a junior reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, the Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a Trade and Economics Correspondent at the New York Times.

Rich Thau, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, started our afternoon sessions with a presentation on his research, “The Swing Voter Project,” which analyzes the thinking and opinions of swing voters of the past two presidential elections. In addition to discussing trends and the demographics of the voters interviewed, he also touched on the issues they found to be most important and most decisive for the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. He found that in regard to trade policy, it was not necessarily the concept of open trade that these voters were wary about, but more so immigration policy that might accompany it. This was followed by a conversation with Kimberly Ellis, Principal at the Monument Policy Group. They discussed the implications of his research, as well as his predictions for the upcoming election cycle.

Next on the afternoon agenda was, “A Fireside Chat: ‘Tarrified’ of Trade Talks?” Hosts of the Trade Talks podcast Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Soumaya Keynes, the Trade and Globalization Editor for the Economist gave commentary on the troubles of the appellate body of the World Trade Organization. Using a more historical lens, Bown and Keynes analyzed policy of the WTO and gave insight as to what could be done to restore a balanced dispute settlement system in trade.

Ambassador Robert Zoellick gave his remarks in the next session. Zoellick discussed both his pessimism towards the Trump Administration’s global trade plans as well as the degradation of U.S. relations to a multilateral system. Ambassador Zoellick also spoke on the strategic harnessing of all types of trading systems, specifically that the best and most strategically competent trade policy measures would be the ones that can harness regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade networks together instead of dogmatically chasing one. He also advised business owners to innovate supply chains that are more rigid and flexible to the coming era of trade uncertainty. His remarks were followed by a conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The concluding panel, “Trade Around the World,” featured a conversation between foreign ambassadors to the United States on both the conflict surrounding the dispute settlement process of the WTO as well as their take on relations between their countries and the U.S. From discussing the need to establish a rules-based system in trade relations to their countries’ stakes in the global market and foreign direct investment from and into the United States, the panelists gave interesting insight as to the climate of trade policy in years to come. Moderated by Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs at UPS, the featured panelists were H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore, H.E. Stavros Labrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, and H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia.

The post 2020 Washington International Trade Conference Recap appeared first on WITA.

The post Labor Provisions in the USMCA – A New Paradigm on Trade & Labor? appeared first on WITA.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), Chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee discussed the Subcommittee agenda, his priorities, his views of the Administration’s trade agenda, and what we might expect on USMCA, trade talks with China, and pending FTA discussions. 

FEATURING

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR)

Steve Lamar, Executive Vice President, American Apparel & Footwear Association

Amid rising tensions and ongoing negotiations, the issue of trade has become a central point of discussion among media organizations, lawmakers, and businesses alike. This WITA event welcomed the chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee, Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), who offered his views on the current state of international trade. After introductory remarks from Ken I. Levinson, WITA’s executive director, and moderator Steve Lamar, the Executive Vice President of American Apparel and Footwear and President of WITA’s Board of Directors, Rep. Blumenauer began his opening statement. 

Rep. Blumenauer was frank in his analysis of the situation. He voiced his belief that robust international trade was necessary for economic activity and growth, and criticized President Trump’s “drive-by tariffs” and “vexing” agenda. Such instability undercuts the United States’ position with China, who he identified as a negative and ruthless actor in the international community. After years of tension, he did not want to come out with only a purchase order to show.  

Rep. Blumenauer also commented on the original NAFTA agreement, identifying its various weaknesses and shortcomings. It failed to produce substantial benefits for foreign workers. For example, after adjusting for inflation, the average Mexican worker is making less today than they did pre-NAFTA. Further, it failed to reduce the crisis at the U.S.-Mexican border, and did not comprehensively address pressing environmental issues. 

Following his initial remarks, Rep. Blumenauer answered questions from the moderator, Steve Lamar, as well as the audience. Lamar opened with an inquiry about the labor standards and enforcement mechanisms outlined in USMCA, asking about the path forward for House Democrats on the issue. Rep. Blumenauer began by praising the Mexican government. He commended them for the significant steps they had taken to improve labor conditions, and voiced his confidence in the commitments given by the Mexican government. However, he also identified the need for trust building, and increasing the capacity of the USMCA to process the sheer number of anticipated contracts. 

When asked about whether or not he was satisfied with the trade hearings and vetting process for the Tranche 4 tariffs, Rep. Blumenauer gave a simple answer: “No.” He went on to explain how for many initiatives, the administration had failed to procure the proper resources for them to be successful. He called it “non-sensical,” and stated that “if they can’t implement it, just stop it!” He also stated that Congress has been too complicit in the expansion of Executive authority, and emphasized the need for Congress to re-assert its constitutional authority. Statutory guardrails for the Executive branch need to be implemented. Regardless, he called USCMA his top legislative priority, saying that “virtually everyone agrees NAFTA 2.0 is better.”

However, he cautioned against hasty expectations for USMCA’s passage. Although Mexico’s government has already approved it, he reiterated the need for the U.S. to take its time with ratification. Serious questions are still being asked, and many of the Democrats’ original requests were left out of the agreement. Rep. Blumenauer said there was little chance for the USMCA to be passed before August.

He also commented on the United States’ role in the international community. After being asked about the World Trade Organization, he said that there was concern among lawmakers about the body’s lack of U.S. leadership. The WTO is one of the United States’ major contributions to the world. As a result, Blumenauer advocated for the strengthening of WTO, as nations need a rules-based structure to promote international trade. Outside of the USMCA and China, he sees the European Union and Brexit as being prominent during the 2020 elections. He even joked that the U.K., through Brexit, competes with the U.S in terms of self-destructive behavior. 

Rep. Blumenauer was also asked about his expectations for the upcoming talks between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Given President Trump’s unpredictable behavior, China’s longevity as a nation, and their propensity to play the “long-game,” Blumenauer said he had no expectations for the meeting. To conclude, he emphasized the need for cross-cutting discussions between Democrats and Republicans on the issue of trade, and harkened back to his belief that robust international trade was crucial for economic growth. 

The post Coffee & Conversation with Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Chairman of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee appeared first on WITA.

Senators James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Coons (D-DE) have made a name for themselves for their friendship and willingness to work across the aisle on issues of importance to their states and the nation. 

We discussed their views on the use of tariffs as leverage in trade disputes and negotiations, and their legislation, the Import Tax Relief Act – which creates an exclusion process from tariffs on Chinese goods, and is meant to provide relief to American consumers, farmers and firms impacted by the tariffs.

Following the Senators’ presentation was a short panel discussion of the effect tariffs and other trade policies are having on U.S. firms, farmers, workers and employers.

FEATURING

Senator Chris Coons (D-DE)

Senator James Lankford (R-OK)

Moderator: Nicole Bivens-Collinson, President, International Trade and Government Relations, Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.

PANEL DISCUSSION FEATURING

Laura M. Baughman, President of The Trade Partnership and Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC

Guy Harari, President, Adisseo North & Central America

Eric Wenberg, Executive Director, Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance

Moderator: Nicole Bivens-Collinson, President, International Trade and Government Relations, Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.

In a time of inter-party conflict and escalating trade disputes, this WITA event provided an example of the cooperation that will be necessary for reaching trade agreements and fostering economic competition. The event featured Senator James Lankford (R-OK) and Senator Chris Coons (D-DE), two senators who have been known for reaching across the aisle to find common ground and resolve trade issues. Following their discussion, the event featured a panel that further examined the impacts of current trade wars. After welcomes from Kenneth I. Levinson, executive director of WITA, and moderator Nicole Bivens Collinson, President of International Trade and Government Relations at Sandler, Travis, & Rosenberg, the senators introduced their perspectives on current trade issues.  

In his opening statement, Senator Lankford briefly introduced the role of international trade in his home state of Oklahoma, which trades with Mexico and Canada along the Mississippi River. Oklahoma is only one of many states that is affected by tariffs and international trade disputes. Senator Lankford declared that “we as a nation have been free traders before we were a nation,” and that a main rationale for American independence was that the King was inhibiting free trade. In response to a question from the moderator, he added that while recent tariffs were prompted by legitimate concerns about violations such as stolen intellectual property, these tariffs are not an automatic solution for every diplomatic problem. Senator Lankford stated that he supports Trade Representative Lighthizer’s efforts, insofar as he is working toward a goal of low or no tariffs, rather than holding onto reciprocal high tariffs indefinitely.

Following Senator Lankford, Senator Coons gave his opening statement, in which he agreed with Lankford’s stated goal of lowering tariffs in the long-term and making domestic industries more competitive. Senator Coons expressed concern about President Trump’s use of unilateral tariffs as a “weapon of economic conflict,” since this action is costly for American manufacturers and consumers, as well as America’s foreign allies. President Trump’s rhetoric about tariffs implies that they generate revenue for the US at the expense of China, but Coons clarified that Americans are bearing costs of these tariffs. He pointed out that before President Trump’s recent actions, the use of tariffs had been diminished over the last seven decades, which will now make it difficult for the US to justify its increased use of tariffs as a political tool to the WTO. To address these concerns, Senator Coons emphasized the importance of building a bipartisan effort to make the economy more resilient to 21^st century economic and political shocks. Specifically, he proposed three priorities: 1) fix what is broken in the American system, 2) engage with US allies, and 3) find ways to cooperate with China and demonstrate that the US does not intend to prevent China from becoming “a leader on the world stage.”

In the discussion following these statements, the senators and moderator discussed the exclusion process for the 232 and 301 tariffs. Both senators agreed that exclusions should be maintained throughout tariff negotiations, and Senator Lankford stated that the exclusion process places a “needless strain on economic growth” if exclusions cannot be automatically renewed, due to the difficulty of applying for exclusions. Other topics discussed included recent efforts to reassert Congress’ constitutionally mandated power regarding tariffs imposed in the name of national security. Senator Coons likened the 232 and 301 tariffs to a club that the President has swung around to wage economic warfare, and he stated that Congress should be more active in checking the power of the executive when imposing tariffs. Senator Lankford added a mention of Senator Pat Toomey’s (R-PA) efforts to emphasize the need for congressional approval and require that national emergencies be well-defined when invoked by an executive power.  

Additionally, the senators discussed President Trump’s recent tariff threats on Mexico and how they might affect the USMCA process. The moderator noted the unconventionality of Trump’s use of a national emergency to justify tariffs on imports from Mexico. While some members of Congress have expressed confidence that USMCA will be finished by July, Senator Coons predicted a much slower appropriations process because Trump’s recent actions have severely undermined the sense of predictability necessary for reaching an agreement. Already, many policymakers and business owners have been caught off guard by the president’s use of security justifications to achieve economic ends, especially with close allies. Due to these strained alliances, Coons emphasized the importance of bipartisan reexamination of the US’s use of tariffs. Senator Lankford added that in order to reestablish some stability, the Senate and the House must prioritize finishing the USMCA deal and fostering synergy across the aisle.

The moderator then opened up the dialogue to audience questions, which led to discussion of European auto tariffs and the nature of the U.S.-China relationship. Senator Lankford briefly addressed the possibility that Trump might impose auto tariffs on Europe in another effort to use tariffs as a leveraging tool, in response to European blocking of American agriculture. It is possible that a trade battle with Europe would affect the USMCA deal, but the exact impacts on the auto supply chain cannot yet be known. Both senators also addressed U.S.-China relations, with Senator Coons noting that relations are at an “absolutely pivotal turning point,” in which a positive future can come of the current conflicts if frankness, fairness, and trust are prioritized. Senator Lankford stated that current trade issues go beyond any party or administration, and that they will not simply disappear if world leaders fail to resolve them soon. To close the discussion, Senator Coons reminded the audience that many Americans hold genuine grievances about the detrimental impacts of trade disputes on their livelihoods, and that addressing these grievances will require “deliberate action.”

The event continued with a panel discussion on the ground-level, “tactile” impacts of tariffs on manufacturing and farming businesses, many of which rely heavily on international exports. Laura Baughman of The Trade Partnership and Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC discussed the various “moving parts” that determine the costs of Section 232 and 301 tariffs on American households and manufacturers. The effects of job losses and high prices on certain products filter through the rest of the economy, creating large hits to consumer spending and GDP. She estimated that these costs would increase further if NAFTA were canceled and USMCA failed to pass. Additionally, Baughman discussed the reactions from the current administration to her cost analyses. Many point to the current strength of the economy to undermine arguments against tariffs, but Baughman stated that the costs of tariffs are difficult to observe right now because layoffs will be a delayed effect. Most companies initially respond to higher costs with less visible actions such as reducing hours, 401k contributions, capital investments, and new hires.

Guy Harari of Adisseo North & Central America explained the impacts of tariffs on the supply chain for chicken meat production. Due to 301 List 3 tariffs, it is no longer cost-effective for his company to import certain amino acids that are typically used to increase production capacity. Since tariffs impede the “freedom to source inputs at competitive prices,” consumer prices are driven up as producers struggle to cope with demand. Harari also noted the difficulty of relying on alternate suppliers when importing from China becomes less viable. Due to the high cost of reformulating their supply chain and investing in new plants, poultry producers are forced to cut back production in response to tariffs.

Eric Wenberg of the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance discussed the impact of tariffs on farms and rural entrepreneurs, particularly on agricultural transportation. American agricultural exports depend on the availability of container equipment, and the trade war with China has created significant market instability for container shipping. He commented that when the US receives fewer exports from China, there are fewer empty containers free for American farmers to fill and schedule, which may eventually reduce demand for American products abroad. To conclude, Wenberg discussed the importance of regulatory fixes to streamline the certification process, as well as provide insurance for communities that rely heavily on farming.

The post Senators Chris Coons and James Lankford on Tariffs and Trade; Panel Discussion on Impacts of the Trade War appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Council of the Americas

The Honourable Perrin Beatty, P.C., O.C., Former Canadian Cabinet Minister; President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Kenneth Smith Ramos, Former Mexican Chief Negotiator for the modernisation of NAFTA; Partner, AGON

Ambassador Miriam Sapiro, Managing Director, Sard Verbinnen & Co. (SVC)

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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