On Monday, January 31st, and Tuesday, February 1st, 2022, WITA hosted its fourth annual Washington International Trade Conference (WITC). This conference brought together leaders in international trade from across the U.S. and around the world to explore the trade landscape and look toward the future of trade.

 Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Moderator: Ambassador Kristen Silverberg, President & COO, Business Roundtable; former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union 

Aik Hoe Lim, Director, Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization

Kelly K. Milton, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Ambassador Gloria Abraham Peralta, Costa Rica’s Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization, Co-Chair, Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD), World Trade Organization

Moderator: Sarah Stewart, Executive Director, Silverado Policy Accelerator; former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Angela Ellard, Deputy Director General, World Trade Organization

Moderator: Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative; former Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization

Amy P. Celico, Principal Albright Stonebridge Group | Dentons Global Advisors; former Senior Director for China Affairs, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center & New America, Yale Law School

Moderator: Erin Ennis, Vice President, Global Public Policy, Dell Technologies

Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Canadian Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Tomita Koji, Japanese Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, European Union Ambassador to the United States

Moderator: Ambassador Susan Schwab, Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP; former U.S. Trade Representative

Orit Frenkel, CEO, American Leadership Initiative

Ed Gresser, Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute (PPI)

Jeffrey Kucik, Associate Professor, School of Government and Public Policy at University of Arizona

Chad Thompson, Executive Director for Legal Affairs & Trade, General Motors

Moderator: Sarah Thorn, Senior Director of Global Government Affairs, Walmart

Jon Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, National Retail Federation

Phil Levy, Chief Economist, Flexport

Penny Naas, President of International Public Affairs and Sustainability, UPS

Maria Zieba, Assistant Vice President of International Affairs, National Pork Producers Council

Moderator: Ana Swanson, Correspondent, New York Times

Ambassador Sarah Bianchi, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Moderator: Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner & President & CEO, Crowell & Moring LLP and C&M International; Former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

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US-China Relations 

• Moderator: Wendy Cutler,President and Managing Director, Asia Society Policy Institute, former acting Deputy USTR
• Aaron L. Friedberg,Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
• Ambassador Kurt Tong,Partner, the Asia Group, and former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs
• Susan Shirk,Chair, 21st Century China Center and Research Professor, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State

To view more information on the event, please click here. 

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On November 12th WITA looked at what the U.S. Presidential election might mean for American trade policy in the years to come, with a bipartisan panel of experts who served in senior roles in Congress and the Administration. Welcome and Opening Remarks 

PROGRAM AGENDA

Welcome and Opening Remarks

• Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

Remarks and Discussion

• Nasim Fussell, Partner, Holland & Knight; and former Chief International Trade Counsel, Senate Finance Committee
• Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner, Crowell & Moring LLP and President & CEO, C&M International; and former Deputy USTR
• Brian Pomper, Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP; and former Chief International Trade Counsel, Senate Finance Committee
• Stephen P. Vaughn, Partner, King & Spalding; and former USTR General Counsel, and Acting USTR
• Moderator, Stephanie Lester, Senior Director, Government Affairs, Gap Inc.

Followed by:

• Q & A with Audience – Webinar attendees are encouraged to use the Q&A function on the Zoom app to submit their questions in real time.

Event Close

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Featuring:

Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute

Professor Ann Lee, Author, “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”

Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner, The Asia Group

Clete Willems, Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP

Douglas M. Bell, moderator, Global Trade Policy Leader, Ernst & Young

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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Featuring:

Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President, Trade Center Management Associates

Kenneth Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

 Director-General Roberto Azevêdo, World Trade Organization

Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, President, National Foreign Trade Council

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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The event began with remarks from Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President of Trade Center Management Associates and Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. We were fortunate enough to hear Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, as he discussed the dissolution of the appellate body and his thoughts on global dispute settlements going forward. This was followed by an armchair discussion with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around how China had changed its own image within the last 20 years and the radical shifts it has made from being relatively closed off to countries who were not direct allies to joining the WTO in 2001. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Since the Trump administration’s Phase One deal, China has become more cautious as to its approach to its relationship with the United States and there were voiced concerns from all panelists as to China’s willingness to follow through with their end of the agreement let alone get to a Phase Two before the end of the coming general election cycle. The panelists were Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Professor Ann Lee, author of  “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”, Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, Clete Willems, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, and Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader at Ernst & Young.

The NextGenTrade panel was centered around the evolution of trade due to advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, 3D printing, as well as financial technology developments. While 3D trade was not as disruptive of an invention as was expected with regards to its ability to rapidly manufacture and place highly developed countries over developing ones, the ability of AI to do that was discussed in depth. Another issue that was brought up was blokchain’s ability to carry out anonymous, financial transactions that could skew U.S. financial markets with disruptive, malicious financial technologies from China, Russia, and Iran.

While illegal and purposefully harmful technologies were discussed, there could also be a market for legal and productive digital trade surrounding financial tools bolstered by AI and insured in its ability to be untampered with by blockchain based networks. Which type of digital trade economy develops over the next few years is dependent on which country holds dominance in both financial and economic markets. The panelists were Susan Lund the Director of Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, Julia Nielson the Head of the Development Division at the Trade & Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Paul Triolo the Practice Head of Geo-Technology at the Eurasia Group, and Jake Colvin, Executive Director of the Global Innovation Forum.

The next morning panel was the press roundtable, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” With trade on the forefront of many news outlets, this year was particularly interesting to hear from members of the press. From senior experts to junior correspondents, Ambassador Susan C. Schwab of Mayer Brown LLP moderated a discussion between prominent reporters on current trade topics and trends. Not only were the discussants able to share their experiences with the press, but they also gave their personal insight and predictions for how key trade issues will progress and be resolved. The featured panelists were Jenny Leonard, a junior reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, the Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a Trade and Economics Correspondent at the New York Times.

Rich Thau, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, started our afternoon sessions with a presentation on his research, “The Swing Voter Project,” which analyzes the thinking and opinions of swing voters of the past two presidential elections. In addition to discussing trends and the demographics of the voters interviewed, he also touched on the issues they found to be most important and most decisive for the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. He found that in regard to trade policy, it was not necessarily the concept of open trade that these voters were wary about, but more so immigration policy that might accompany it. This was followed by a conversation with Kimberly Ellis, Principal at the Monument Policy Group. They discussed the implications of his research, as well as his predictions for the upcoming election cycle.

Next on the afternoon agenda was, “A Fireside Chat: ‘Tarrified’ of Trade Talks?” Hosts of the Trade Talks podcast Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Soumaya Keynes, the Trade and Globalization Editor for the Economist gave commentary on the troubles of the appellate body of the World Trade Organization. Using a more historical lens, Bown and Keynes analyzed policy of the WTO and gave insight as to what could be done to restore a balanced dispute settlement system in trade.

Ambassador Robert Zoellick gave his remarks in the next session. Zoellick discussed both his pessimism towards the Trump Administration’s global trade plans as well as the degradation of U.S. relations to a multilateral system. Ambassador Zoellick also spoke on the strategic harnessing of all types of trading systems, specifically that the best and most strategically competent trade policy measures would be the ones that can harness regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade networks together instead of dogmatically chasing one. He also advised business owners to innovate supply chains that are more rigid and flexible to the coming era of trade uncertainty. His remarks were followed by a conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The concluding panel, “Trade Around the World,” featured a conversation between foreign ambassadors to the United States on both the conflict surrounding the dispute settlement process of the WTO as well as their take on relations between their countries and the U.S. From discussing the need to establish a rules-based system in trade relations to their countries’ stakes in the global market and foreign direct investment from and into the United States, the panelists gave interesting insight as to the climate of trade policy in years to come. Moderated by Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs at UPS, the featured panelists were H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore, H.E. Stavros Labrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, and H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia.

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Senators James Lankford (R-OK) and Chris Coons (D-DE) have made a name for themselves for their friendship and willingness to work across the aisle on issues of importance to their states and the nation. 

We discussed their views on the use of tariffs as leverage in trade disputes and negotiations, and their legislation, the Import Tax Relief Act – which creates an exclusion process from tariffs on Chinese goods, and is meant to provide relief to American consumers, farmers and firms impacted by the tariffs.

Following the Senators’ presentation was a short panel discussion of the effect tariffs and other trade policies are having on U.S. firms, farmers, workers and employers.

FEATURING

Senator Chris Coons (D-DE)

Senator James Lankford (R-OK)

Moderator: Nicole Bivens-Collinson, President, International Trade and Government Relations, Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.

PANEL DISCUSSION FEATURING

Laura M. Baughman, President of The Trade Partnership and Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC

Guy Harari, President, Adisseo North & Central America

Eric Wenberg, Executive Director, Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance

Moderator: Nicole Bivens-Collinson, President, International Trade and Government Relations, Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.

In a time of inter-party conflict and escalating trade disputes, this WITA event provided an example of the cooperation that will be necessary for reaching trade agreements and fostering economic competition. The event featured Senator James Lankford (R-OK) and Senator Chris Coons (D-DE), two senators who have been known for reaching across the aisle to find common ground and resolve trade issues. Following their discussion, the event featured a panel that further examined the impacts of current trade wars. After welcomes from Kenneth I. Levinson, executive director of WITA, and moderator Nicole Bivens Collinson, President of International Trade and Government Relations at Sandler, Travis, & Rosenberg, the senators introduced their perspectives on current trade issues.  

In his opening statement, Senator Lankford briefly introduced the role of international trade in his home state of Oklahoma, which trades with Mexico and Canada along the Mississippi River. Oklahoma is only one of many states that is affected by tariffs and international trade disputes. Senator Lankford declared that “we as a nation have been free traders before we were a nation,” and that a main rationale for American independence was that the King was inhibiting free trade. In response to a question from the moderator, he added that while recent tariffs were prompted by legitimate concerns about violations such as stolen intellectual property, these tariffs are not an automatic solution for every diplomatic problem. Senator Lankford stated that he supports Trade Representative Lighthizer’s efforts, insofar as he is working toward a goal of low or no tariffs, rather than holding onto reciprocal high tariffs indefinitely.

Following Senator Lankford, Senator Coons gave his opening statement, in which he agreed with Lankford’s stated goal of lowering tariffs in the long-term and making domestic industries more competitive. Senator Coons expressed concern about President Trump’s use of unilateral tariffs as a “weapon of economic conflict,” since this action is costly for American manufacturers and consumers, as well as America’s foreign allies. President Trump’s rhetoric about tariffs implies that they generate revenue for the US at the expense of China, but Coons clarified that Americans are bearing costs of these tariffs. He pointed out that before President Trump’s recent actions, the use of tariffs had been diminished over the last seven decades, which will now make it difficult for the US to justify its increased use of tariffs as a political tool to the WTO. To address these concerns, Senator Coons emphasized the importance of building a bipartisan effort to make the economy more resilient to 21^st century economic and political shocks. Specifically, he proposed three priorities: 1) fix what is broken in the American system, 2) engage with US allies, and 3) find ways to cooperate with China and demonstrate that the US does not intend to prevent China from becoming “a leader on the world stage.”

In the discussion following these statements, the senators and moderator discussed the exclusion process for the 232 and 301 tariffs. Both senators agreed that exclusions should be maintained throughout tariff negotiations, and Senator Lankford stated that the exclusion process places a “needless strain on economic growth” if exclusions cannot be automatically renewed, due to the difficulty of applying for exclusions. Other topics discussed included recent efforts to reassert Congress’ constitutionally mandated power regarding tariffs imposed in the name of national security. Senator Coons likened the 232 and 301 tariffs to a club that the President has swung around to wage economic warfare, and he stated that Congress should be more active in checking the power of the executive when imposing tariffs. Senator Lankford added a mention of Senator Pat Toomey’s (R-PA) efforts to emphasize the need for congressional approval and require that national emergencies be well-defined when invoked by an executive power.  

Additionally, the senators discussed President Trump’s recent tariff threats on Mexico and how they might affect the USMCA process. The moderator noted the unconventionality of Trump’s use of a national emergency to justify tariffs on imports from Mexico. While some members of Congress have expressed confidence that USMCA will be finished by July, Senator Coons predicted a much slower appropriations process because Trump’s recent actions have severely undermined the sense of predictability necessary for reaching an agreement. Already, many policymakers and business owners have been caught off guard by the president’s use of security justifications to achieve economic ends, especially with close allies. Due to these strained alliances, Coons emphasized the importance of bipartisan reexamination of the US’s use of tariffs. Senator Lankford added that in order to reestablish some stability, the Senate and the House must prioritize finishing the USMCA deal and fostering synergy across the aisle.

The moderator then opened up the dialogue to audience questions, which led to discussion of European auto tariffs and the nature of the U.S.-China relationship. Senator Lankford briefly addressed the possibility that Trump might impose auto tariffs on Europe in another effort to use tariffs as a leveraging tool, in response to European blocking of American agriculture. It is possible that a trade battle with Europe would affect the USMCA deal, but the exact impacts on the auto supply chain cannot yet be known. Both senators also addressed U.S.-China relations, with Senator Coons noting that relations are at an “absolutely pivotal turning point,” in which a positive future can come of the current conflicts if frankness, fairness, and trust are prioritized. Senator Lankford stated that current trade issues go beyond any party or administration, and that they will not simply disappear if world leaders fail to resolve them soon. To close the discussion, Senator Coons reminded the audience that many Americans hold genuine grievances about the detrimental impacts of trade disputes on their livelihoods, and that addressing these grievances will require “deliberate action.”

The event continued with a panel discussion on the ground-level, “tactile” impacts of tariffs on manufacturing and farming businesses, many of which rely heavily on international exports. Laura Baughman of The Trade Partnership and Trade Partnership Worldwide, LLC discussed the various “moving parts” that determine the costs of Section 232 and 301 tariffs on American households and manufacturers. The effects of job losses and high prices on certain products filter through the rest of the economy, creating large hits to consumer spending and GDP. She estimated that these costs would increase further if NAFTA were canceled and USMCA failed to pass. Additionally, Baughman discussed the reactions from the current administration to her cost analyses. Many point to the current strength of the economy to undermine arguments against tariffs, but Baughman stated that the costs of tariffs are difficult to observe right now because layoffs will be a delayed effect. Most companies initially respond to higher costs with less visible actions such as reducing hours, 401k contributions, capital investments, and new hires.

Guy Harari of Adisseo North & Central America explained the impacts of tariffs on the supply chain for chicken meat production. Due to 301 List 3 tariffs, it is no longer cost-effective for his company to import certain amino acids that are typically used to increase production capacity. Since tariffs impede the “freedom to source inputs at competitive prices,” consumer prices are driven up as producers struggle to cope with demand. Harari also noted the difficulty of relying on alternate suppliers when importing from China becomes less viable. Due to the high cost of reformulating their supply chain and investing in new plants, poultry producers are forced to cut back production in response to tariffs.

Eric Wenberg of the Specialty Soya and Grains Alliance discussed the impact of tariffs on farms and rural entrepreneurs, particularly on agricultural transportation. American agricultural exports depend on the availability of container equipment, and the trade war with China has created significant market instability for container shipping. He commented that when the US receives fewer exports from China, there are fewer empty containers free for American farmers to fill and schedule, which may eventually reduce demand for American products abroad. To conclude, Wenberg discussed the importance of regulatory fixes to streamline the certification process, as well as provide insurance for communities that rely heavily on farming.

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The on-going trade war between the U.S. and China is not only having an impact on farmers, manufacturers and consumers, is threatening – and in some cases, already has – undermined the very nature of 21st Century global value chains.

FEATURING:

Erin Ennis, U.S.-China Business Council

Beth Hughes, International Dairy Foods Association

John Neuffer, Semiconductor Industry Association

Scott Paul, Alliance for American Manufacturing

Hun Quach, Retail Industry Leaders Association

Moderator: Steve Lamar, American Apparel & Footwear Association

For more information on the event and information on the speakers, visit the events page here.

U.S. – CHINA TRADE AND THE IMPACT THE TRADE WAR IS HAVING ON GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS  

By: Jasmine Mitchell

On Wednesday, May 5th, 2019, WITA welcomed distinguished U.S.-Chinese trade specialists Erin Ennis, Beth Hughes, John Neuffer, Scott Paul, and Hun Quach for a panel discussion on the impact the U.S.-China trade war is having on global value chains. The discussants detailed these impacts with respect to the U.S. Industrial communities (technology, retail, business, and agriculture) they each represented. The event began with introductory remarks from Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. Following opening remarks, moderator Steve Lamar, Executive Vice President of American Apparel & Footwear Association, began with panelist introductions and opened up discussion shortly thereafter.

The panel discussion began with Erin Ennis, Senior Vice president of the U.S.-China Business Council. Offering a generalized business perspective on U.S.-China trade relations, Ennis provided a detailed overview of the history of U.S.-China relationship, the current state of U.S.-China affairs, and offered her own speculation as to how the trade-war could affect future. In her discussion of the current conflict between the U.S. and China, Ennis admitted that there hasn’t been any significant evidence indicating progress towards a resolution. Ennis argued, however, that the focus should not be to simply lift the tariffs of Chinese goods but rather focus on improvements and reforms made on China’s Intellectual property rights system that are sustainable. She urges that the creation of a rule of law system outweighs a quick resolution on trade disputes, and would ensure that American companies are able to protect their rights and the market without having to go to the Chinese government. Speaking on the future of the U.S.-China Trade war, Ennis states, “There have been negotiations, but we don’t actually know when those are going to restart. So as a consequence all of these tariffs, for the moment, are things that we are advising companies to assume this is currently the cost of business is going to be with China”.

Beth Hughes, Senior Director of International Affairs of the International Dairy Foods Association, detailed how the Dairy industry, and the agricultural industry to a larger extent, has been negatively impacted by the U.S.-China trade war. Hughes begins by detailing how the Dairy Industry is especially being impacted by the Trade War due to its reliance on China; their third largest market for export revenue. She does note, however, that due to the most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs with China, the Dairy Industry was not given a level playing field to start with; and now the current trade war has further hindered business. After the anticipated June 1st Tranche 4 tariffs, Hughes estimates that tariffs will dramatically spike from around 10% to an estimated 25% to 45% on average depending on the dairy product. While detailing the many difficulties with doing business in China, Hughes briefly explained the uncertain future for the U.S. dairy industry in China. An issue at the forefront for U.S. dairy companies is their ability to maintain a presence in Chinese markets; once you are out of the market and lose your market share, you will probably be out long term. Hughes concluded by stating, “It’s not an opportune time for the dairy industry when we already have an oversupply of milk, but it’s across the board for agriculture that we are collateral damage in Trade wars with retaliatory tariffs, and this is no exception”.

John Neuffer, who serves as President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association offered a comprehensive look into the semiconductor industry and the current and projected impact the trade war has on this sector. Neuffer centered most of his discussion around the effect Section 301 tariffs on China concerning China’s Acts, policies and Practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and Innovation has on consumers. He stated that almost all products produced in the semiconductor industry were capture until tranche 2, and as a result, much of those burdens have been passed on to American consumers. Unlike other electronic manufacturers, Neuffer explained, the semiconductor industry remained in the United States. Despite maintaining a presence in the U.S., the semiconductor industry has a large exposure to the Chinese economy through its consumers. Neuffer summarized the issues of the semiconductor industry by stating, “Our problems with China is not market access, China is our biggest and fastest growing market, around 35%, the bigger problem is that we need those Chinese consumers.”

Scott Paul, President of the Alliance for American Manufacturing echoed a similar point raised by the other panelists: to spare consumers and American families the passed down costs. Paul’s discussion centered around four main ideas: the composition of the China price, value chains, and macroeconomic impacts. Paul began his discussion by arguing that government policy with misalignment and manipulation of currency has led to devaluation, which in turn has made it difficult for U.S. manufacturers to compete in Chinese markets. Additional the nature of the “China price” leaves many questions regarding labor, environmental concerns, and currency. Paul concluded by echoing Erin Ennis point regarding the lingering uncertainties that linger in the trade community as to the long-term effects on American consumers and businesses.

Hun Quanch, Vice President of International Trade of the Retail Industry Leaders Association concluded the panel discussion with an optimistic tone by offering ways for U.S. industries to mitigate the issues and challenges caused by the U.S.-China trade war. Quanch began by emphasizing the importance of directly engaging with the public about your product or industry, so there is knowledge of the many U.S. jobs that bring items “made China” to American retailers’ shelves. She stated this was an effective method used by the U.S. retail industry to avoid tariffs on toys, clothes, and shoes. Quanch concluded her discussion by arguing, “tariffs are taxes on consumers”.

WITA’s panel comprehensively examined the many impacts the U.S.-China Trade Dispute is having on global value chains. The discussion provided an informative look into key U.S. industries and offered a forum to discuss the current tensions and anxieties about the unknown future with the U.S.- China trade relationship felt throughout Washington’s trade community.

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