On Wednesday, August 5th, WITA hosted a conversation with WTO Director General Candidate HE Mohammed Al Tuwaijri. Mohammed Al Tuwaijri is Saudi Arabia’s candidate to be Director General. He is currently an advisor to the Saudi Royal Court in a Minister Rank. Formerly he served as Minister of Economy and Planning of Saudi Arabia, Vice Chairman and CEO of HSBC’s Global Banking & Markets, Middle East & North Africa (MENA), and as Managing Director of JP Morgan Chase Bank, Saudi Arabia. He has a Bachelor’s degree from the King Faisal Air Academy, and an MBA from King Saud University.

Webinar Featuring:

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Trade Around the World

By: Madelyn Cunningham

The concluding panel of the 2020 Washington International Trade Conference was “Trade Around the World,” a discussion featuring ambassadors H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, H.E. Stavros Lambrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, and H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore. Laura Lane, President of Global Affairs for UPS, moderated the discussion through trade relations and FDI between their countries and the United States and the dissolution of the Appellate Body in the WTO.

Laura Lane opened the panel by discussing the relationship between Singapore and the United States, asking Ambassador Mirpuri to talk about this partnership and possible trade interests of Singapore in the future. Ambassador Mirpuri starts by stating the growing importance of trade in the political sphere, acknowledging that while the audience may have some familiarity with Singapore whether that be through business or the trade relationship with the United States, Singapore is a hyper-globalized country driven by trade.

Trade drives the Singaporean economy, but H.E. Mirpuri brought up the new challenges regarding issues of trade and expressed the need to identify where global trade will be going because of geopolitical conflict, recent anti-globalization and protectionist efforts, and the fourth wave of industrialization. To address these issues and changes, Mirpuri expressed that through the U.S. – Singapore trade relationship, Singapore has shifted its mindset towards future problems and adjusting in this age of digitization and global changes.

Ambassador Mirpuri stressed the need for a rules-based system in the WTO, explaining that for small countries especially, there must be an established system of rules and operations in order for the world dispute settlement process to be fully functioning. To account for the current instability in the WTO and the changing trade atmosphere with digitization, Ambassador Mirpuri identified how Singapore has been adapting.

Mirpuri stated that last month, partnered with New Zealand and Chile, Singapore concluded the Digital Economic Partnership Agreement (DEPA), and hopes agreement will act as a “pathfinder” for e-commerce. Another significant change was the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is currently going through the ratification process.

Moderator Lane then shifted the conversation to bring in New Zealand Ambassador, H.E. Rosemary Banks, asking where she saw the U.S. – New Zealand relationship currently, and the issues on New Zealand’s trade agenda. Ambassador Banks brought up research recently done on the relationship between New Zealand and the United States, which concluded that the first time the country asked for a reciprocal trade agreement with the U.S. was in 1939. She stated that while trade relationships can take a long time, 80 years is a little excessive.

Ambassador Banks then brought up the direction of New Zealand trade policy, she stated that over the last 25 years, there has been significant emphasis on negotiating comprehensive bilateral agreements, establishing relationships with Asian Pacific countries, and maintaining global influence through existing trade agreements. While this has worked in favor of New Zealand, there is worry over taking assumptions of the three-pronged system for granted and the response to encourage the “open-pluralism approach”. Banks called back to Zoellick’s point in his remarks regarding the gap in systems for the process of creating new laws and rules.

Ambassador Banks expressed New Zealand’s excitement to head as the APEC Chair of 2021 in the form of a work program to be established this year, stating that there is a great need for multilateral trade relationships and a functioning and comprehensive dispute settlement system for trade issues. Banks concluded by answering a question asked in Ambassador Zoellick’s session regarding the importance of international trade.

To this, she brought up the “Trade for All Initiative”, a country-wide exercise that involved a consultation to listen to the entire population about their vision for trade policy. Through this consultation, it was found that there is a great divide as to thoughts on current New Zealand trade policy and whether or not it should be shifted in regard to the values of sustainability and equal economic empowerment.

Lane then brought Ambassador of Ethiopia, H.E. Fitsum Arega, into the conversation. With the recent push towards a multilateral trading system and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), Lane asked how this would tie into a future trade relationship between the United States and Ethiopia.

Ambassador Arega responded with increasing public investment of the Ethiopian government, both social and economic, strengthening the education sector and industrial infrastructure of the country. There is a growing preparation for global trade agreements and relationships in Ethiopia, and Arega identified Africa as the next frontier for business investment and trade because of these changes both domestically and continentally.

In addition to domestic reform, Ambassador Arega stated that the newly elected prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, has made Ethiopian involvement in the World Trade Organization and global trade has a priority in recent years. Arega also identified the vast potential for a United States trade partnership with Ethiopia, as it builds its infrastructure, it has also been building an environmentally sustainable textile market. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement is also a turning point for the continent, Arega explained, allowing for greater opportunities for processing and attractive investment.

Lane turned to H.E. Stavros Lambrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, she asked whether or not the optimism for a US-EU trade agreement and future policies is warranted. Ambassador Lambrinidis responded that there is good reason to believe in the negotiations of future policy. He stated that when talking about the relationship between the United States and European Union, the benefits of this relationship could demonstrate that free trade can work in a globalized system and not in a way that would isolate certain countries.

Ambassador Lambrinidis identified the single European market as the biggest deregulation experiment in the world, allowing for an open market without borders of the most profitable businesses globally. The key focus of negotiations of a free market should be on the future, and special attention should be placed on the functions of said market from the grassroots of the economy to measure its effectiveness.

Lambrinidis also stated that the success of the single market is also reliant on the European progressive, values-based system; as trade is not only about making money, but about assigning values. GSP+ agreements establish that in order to negotiate and maintain a relationship, countries must also ensure human rights and sustainability practices.

Ambassador Lambrinidis then brought up the need for an established, rules-based system in the WTO and broader world order, as it is not only important to small countries, but also to large markets. Lambrinidis expressed great disdain for unilateral efforts to “destroy” the WTO, and while it is not easy to reverse protectionist and mercantilist policies and economies, he argued that the WTO must become stronger in the face of these issues and enforcing these changes.

With the changing world order comes new standards according to Lambrinidis, and no matter where countries are in their development, he believed there should be no exceptions to the implementation of these standards.

To further this point, Lane asked the panel to expand on their thoughts on the need to strengthen international systems and reforming the dispute settlement system of the WTO into this decade. Ambassador Rosemary Banks started the discussion, she stated that the first challenge of reforming multilateral organizations is having absolute commitment from major players of said organization.

Lane then moved on to special treatment for developing nations, especially as China, while a trade “powerhouse”, still receives exceptions from the WTO due to its first introduction as a developing country. Ambassador Lambrinidis identified this fact as a significant area of the WTO in need of reform as well as transparency and the Appellate Body.

He then stated that the WTO will always be in danger of collapsing as long as countries believe they are powerful enough to perform unilaterally and outside of its systems. He argued that without a neutral referee or party prosiding, dispute settlement will never work multilaterally, no matter how developed a rules-based system may be. China must play a bigger role in demanding rights but also in accepting obligations, and must be on board with future reforms.

Featuring:

H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia to the United States 

H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand to the United States

H.E. Stavros Lambrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union to the United States

H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore to the United States

Laura Lane, moderator, President, Global Public Affairs, UPS

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Trade Around the World – Ambassadors’ Roundtable appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President, Trade Center Management Associates

Kenneth Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

 Director-General Roberto Azevêdo, World Trade Organization

Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, President, National Foreign Trade Council

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Keynote Address from WTO Director-General, Roberto Azevêdo and Conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa appeared first on WITA.

The event began with remarks from Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President of Trade Center Management Associates and Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. We were fortunate enough to hear Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, as he discussed the dissolution of the appellate body and his thoughts on global dispute settlements going forward. This was followed by an armchair discussion with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around how China had changed its own image within the last 20 years and the radical shifts it has made from being relatively closed off to countries who were not direct allies to joining the WTO in 2001. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Since the Trump administration’s Phase One deal, China has become more cautious as to its approach to its relationship with the United States and there were voiced concerns from all panelists as to China’s willingness to follow through with their end of the agreement let alone get to a Phase Two before the end of the coming general election cycle. The panelists were Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Professor Ann Lee, author of  “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”, Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, Clete Willems, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, and Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader at Ernst & Young.

The NextGenTrade panel was centered around the evolution of trade due to advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, 3D printing, as well as financial technology developments. While 3D trade was not as disruptive of an invention as was expected with regards to its ability to rapidly manufacture and place highly developed countries over developing ones, the ability of AI to do that was discussed in depth. Another issue that was brought up was blokchain’s ability to carry out anonymous, financial transactions that could skew U.S. financial markets with disruptive, malicious financial technologies from China, Russia, and Iran.

While illegal and purposefully harmful technologies were discussed, there could also be a market for legal and productive digital trade surrounding financial tools bolstered by AI and insured in its ability to be untampered with by blockchain based networks. Which type of digital trade economy develops over the next few years is dependent on which country holds dominance in both financial and economic markets. The panelists were Susan Lund the Director of Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, Julia Nielson the Head of the Development Division at the Trade & Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Paul Triolo the Practice Head of Geo-Technology at the Eurasia Group, and Jake Colvin, Executive Director of the Global Innovation Forum.

The next morning panel was the press roundtable, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” With trade on the forefront of many news outlets, this year was particularly interesting to hear from members of the press. From senior experts to junior correspondents, Ambassador Susan C. Schwab of Mayer Brown LLP moderated a discussion between prominent reporters on current trade topics and trends. Not only were the discussants able to share their experiences with the press, but they also gave their personal insight and predictions for how key trade issues will progress and be resolved. The featured panelists were Jenny Leonard, a junior reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, the Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a Trade and Economics Correspondent at the New York Times.

Rich Thau, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, started our afternoon sessions with a presentation on his research, “The Swing Voter Project,” which analyzes the thinking and opinions of swing voters of the past two presidential elections. In addition to discussing trends and the demographics of the voters interviewed, he also touched on the issues they found to be most important and most decisive for the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. He found that in regard to trade policy, it was not necessarily the concept of open trade that these voters were wary about, but more so immigration policy that might accompany it. This was followed by a conversation with Kimberly Ellis, Principal at the Monument Policy Group. They discussed the implications of his research, as well as his predictions for the upcoming election cycle.

Next on the afternoon agenda was, “A Fireside Chat: ‘Tarrified’ of Trade Talks?” Hosts of the Trade Talks podcast Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Soumaya Keynes, the Trade and Globalization Editor for the Economist gave commentary on the troubles of the appellate body of the World Trade Organization. Using a more historical lens, Bown and Keynes analyzed policy of the WTO and gave insight as to what could be done to restore a balanced dispute settlement system in trade.

Ambassador Robert Zoellick gave his remarks in the next session. Zoellick discussed both his pessimism towards the Trump Administration’s global trade plans as well as the degradation of U.S. relations to a multilateral system. Ambassador Zoellick also spoke on the strategic harnessing of all types of trading systems, specifically that the best and most strategically competent trade policy measures would be the ones that can harness regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade networks together instead of dogmatically chasing one. He also advised business owners to innovate supply chains that are more rigid and flexible to the coming era of trade uncertainty. His remarks were followed by a conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The concluding panel, “Trade Around the World,” featured a conversation between foreign ambassadors to the United States on both the conflict surrounding the dispute settlement process of the WTO as well as their take on relations between their countries and the U.S. From discussing the need to establish a rules-based system in trade relations to their countries’ stakes in the global market and foreign direct investment from and into the United States, the panelists gave interesting insight as to the climate of trade policy in years to come. Moderated by Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs at UPS, the featured panelists were H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore, H.E. Stavros Labrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, and H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia.

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To view Bruce Stokes’ presentation slides on American views on Trade in Year Three of the Trump Administration, please click here

Featuring:

Kimberly Ellis, Partner, Monument Advocacy

J.D. Grom, Executive Director, New Democrat Coalition

Robert Moran, Partner, Brunswick Insight

Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: Trade Politics in the Age of Trump appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Ambassador Darci Vetter, Former Chief Agricultural Negotiator, USTR; Vice Chair of Agriculture, Food and Trade, Edelman

David Dollar, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center

Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia and Director, China Power Project, CSIS

David Goldman, Principal, Asia Times

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: In a Trade War with China, What Does Victory Look Like? appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Clete Willems, Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economics and Deputy NEC Director at The White House in a discussion with Michael J. Smart, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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FEATURING:

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NAFTA SERIES: WHERE ARE WE NOW? OVERVIEW:

By Ben Stevens

On Thursday, September 13, 2018, the Washington International Trade Association hosted the tenth, and final event, in the Signature NAFTA Series, titled “Where Are We Now?”. The featured panel discussed the prognosis of the NAFTA renegotiations providing the current status and prospects for the new agreement. The distinguished panelists included Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, Dr. Laura Dawson, Celeste Drake, and Professor Matt Gold. The panelists examined the challenges and uncertainties facing renegotiation efforts, while delving into the different political and economic factors influencing those with a seat at the negotiating table.

Starting the discussion was Matt Gold, current adjunct professor of law at Fordham University and former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for North America. Gold introduced the panel topic with a comprehensive background on the U.S trade policy agenda and how deviations from the status quo by the current administration have affected NAFTA’s renegotiation. He noted the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) impacted renegotiation efforts by eliminating some automatic updates that would have addressed between the three trading partners in the TPP agreement. Some areas included updates to digital commerce and telecommunications rules. He also highlighted particularly contentious elements of renegotiation, such as the sunset clause and the rule of origin requirements for atuos.

The first speaker was Arturo Sarukhan, a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and a distinguished visiting professor at the Annenberg School of Public Diplomacy at University of Southern California. Having served as the Mexican ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Sarukhan applied his knowledge and experience from the perspective of the Mexican government to the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations. He gave background on how the change in Mexican political leadership, through the July elections, had impacted negotiation process; highlighting a “strong desire of both the current and future leadership of Mexico to get a deal done”. Ambassador Sarukhan highlighted changes in the North American bilateral relations between the U.S and Canada as well as the U.S and Mexico. Attempting to illustrate the potential positive and negative implications of a new NAFTA, he noted that positive aspects IPR and e-commerce, while pointing out what he believed were negative aspects in the sunset clause and rules of origin requirements. Ambassador Sarukhan described a high level of uncertainty regarding the negotiations. He pointed out that “until congress submits a text to the president” there is a high level of speculation regarding potential changes to the trade agreement.

Second to speak was Dr. Lauren Dawson, Director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, explained the Canadian perspective on the NAFTA renegotiation efforts by discussing how Canadian politicians must weigh the political pressure to stand opposed to President Trump against the economic incentives for cooperation with the U.S for a “more liberalized trade environment”. Dr. Dawson discussed the political impetus behind current negotiations. She highlighted how it could beneficial, stating it was analogous with “nitroglycerin in a mine”, as it could “clear the path”. However, she also pointed out that if it was too much, it would be as if there was too much nitroglycerin to cause too big of an explosion that would “collapse the whole mine”. Like Ambassador Sarukhan, Dr. Dawson made sure to highlight the uncertainty in the renegotiations.

Celeste Drake, trade and Globalization Specialist for the AFLCIO, was the final panelist to round out the discussion. She focused on the way labor unions view NAFTA and current renegotiation efforts. Her analysis provided a unique perspective that had not highlighted previously by the other panelists. She emphasized elements of NAFTA labor interprets as detrimental to workers ability to form unions, particularly in Mexico where unionization has been dramatically curtailed, or realize the gains of trade relative to the company owners. Like the other panelists Drake highlighted the uncertainty around the renegotiation. However, she described this uncertainty as a positive for labor as, they see potential for their concerns with NAFTA to be addressed. She argued that sunset clauses are not necessarily bad; because almost all legislation, like the Defense Authorization Act, require mandatory reexamination.

The panel provided a deep-dive into the NAFTA re-negotiations. A diverse set of viewpoints were examined, as the panelists provided unique perspectives of different stakeholders.

The post WITA NAFTA Series Event: Where Are We Now? appeared first on WITA.