On June 5, WITA and the U.S. Council for International Business discussed a global regulatory framework for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the recommendations of the OECD’s Council on Artificial Intelligence.

Featured Speakers:

Dr. Orit Frenkel, CEO and co-founder of the American Leadership Initiative. She recently co-authored the paper, U.S. Leadership on AI Global Governance. 

Kate Goodloe, Managing Director at BSA | The Software Alliance.

Karine Perset, Head of the AI Unit and OECD.AI at the OECD Digital Economy Policy Division.

David C. Turnbull, U.S. Delegate to the OECD Digital Policy Committee & GPAI in the Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy at the Office of Multilateral Affairs in the U.S. Department of State.

Howard Wachtel, Senior Director and Head of UN and International Organizations Policy at Microsoft.

Moderator: Cheryl Miller, Vice President of Digital Policy at the U.S. Council for International Business.

Speaker Biographies:

Dr. Orit Frenkel is the CEO and co-founder of the American Leadership Initiative. She recently co-authored the paper, U.S. Leadership on AI Global Governance. She has 39 years of experience working on Asia, trade, and foreign policy issues, with a special emphasis on the challenges facing U.S. manufacturing companies. Prior to founding ALI, Frenkel was a senior executive with General Electric Company for 26 years. In that position, she was responsible for supporting GE’s international sales, policy objectives, government relations, and corporate social responsibility initiatives. 

Dr. Frenkel started her career in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative where she was the Director for Trade in High Technology Products and Deputy Director for Trade with Japan, and spent a detail working for Congressman Lee Hamilton during his time as Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Dr. Frenkel is also the President of Frenkel Strategies, a consulting firm specializing in Asia policy, market access issues and international trade. She is a member of APCO’s International Advisory Committee, and a Senior Advisor with Asia Group Advisors.

She is the author of numerous published articles on trade and foreign policy issues, as well as a book on the negotiation of the US-Israel Free Trade Area. She is an Adjunct Fellow with the Center on Strategic and International Studies, and has served on the board of numerous trade associations and on Department of Commerce and State Advisory panels. Ms. Frenkel received a Ph.D.in International Economics from The Johns Hopkins University, an M.P.P. from the University of Michigan, and a B.A. in Economics with honors from University of Maryland (Phi Beta Kappa). 

Kate Goodloe is the Managing Director at BSA | The Software Alliance. At BSA, Goodloe works with members to develop and advance policy positions on privacy, as well as artificial intelligence and law enforcement access.

Goodloe has also served as an adjunct faculty member at the George Washington University Law School, where she taught a seminar on artificial intelligence law and policy. Before joining BSA, Goodloe was a senior associate in the Privacy & Cybersecurity practice at Covington & Burling LLP. In that role, she counseled technology companies on a range of privacy and law enforcement access issues and represented companies in privacy-related litigation, as well as in investigations by the Federal Trade Commission and by Congress. She previously served as a Law Clerk for the Honorable J. Frederick Motz of the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland.

Goodloe is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism and the New York University School of Law. She is based in BSA’s Washington, DC, office.

Karine Perset is Head of the AI Unit and OECD.AI at the OECD Digital Economy Policy Division where she oversees the OECD.AI Policy Observatory and the OECD.AI Network of Experts (ONE AI). She focuses on trends in the development and diffusion of AI and on opportunities and challenges that AI raises for public policy. Perset’s recent research focused on Internet intermediaries and Internet governance.

She was previously Advisor to the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers’ (ICANN) Governmental Advisory Committee (GAC) and before that was the Counsellor of the OECD’s Science, Technology, and Industry (STI) Directors. 

Perset holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Westminster, and two Master’s degrees in ICT & Telecommunications and International Economics from Université Paris Dauphine.

David C. Turnbull is the U.S. Delegate to the OECD Digital Policy Committee and Global Partnership on AI. He works in the International Information and Communications Policy Office of Multilateral Affairs in the bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy in Washington DC, with a focus on AI policy. Previously, he was the Arabic spokesperson in the U.S. Office of Palestinian Affairs in Jerusalem, and the Deputy Chief of Staff in the Economic and Business Affairs Bureau. David is a career public diplomacy officer who has served in Ho Chi Minh City, at USNATO, in Sana’a Yemen, and several tours in Washington working on European and East Asian Affairs. He is accompanied by his spouse, Anne Eisenhower Turnbull, a Civil Service Officer in Global Talent Management, their twin boys, and a toy poodle named Lady. David hails from upstate New York and is a lifelong Buffalo sports fan.

Howard Wachtel is the Senior Director and Head of UN and International Organizations Policy at Microsoft.

Prior to his role at Microsoft, Wachtel was a senior director and head of global sanctions policy and strategy at PayPal. He spent over a decade in several roles in the US government, including as a civil servant at the National Security Council (as Director of UN and Multilateral Affairs), the US Department of State (as Acting Coordinator of Sanctions Policy, and previously as deputy coordinator and senior adviser in the same office), and the US Mission to the UN (as a policy adviser).  In these roles, he covered a range of issues involving the UN, peacekeeping, international justice, multilateral sanctions, and human rights.

Wachtel began his career as a litigation associate at Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett LLP. He has taught a variety of courses on the UN, sanctions, public international law, and counterterrorism policy as an adjunct professor at the University of Virginia, Duke, and NYU. Wachtel is currently a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center and serves on the board of directors of the Global Center on Cooperative Security. He is also working as a part-time consultant and legal adviser for a UN task team responsible for facilitating the export of food and fertilizer out of Russia and Ukraine.

Wachtel received a BS in international politics from Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, a General Course diploma from the London School of Economics, and both a JD and LLM in international and comparative law from Duke. He lives in New Jersey with his wife, two daughters, and a mini golden doodle.

Cheryl Miller is the Vice President of Digital Policy at the U.S. Council for International Business. She has extensive experience in the private and public sectors, having led Meta’s and Verizon’s global internet policy practices at major international standards bodies, such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the UN Internet Governance Forum (IGF), and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), among others.

She was also the deputy staff director for technology and innovation at the US Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship.

Ken Levinson serves as the Chief Executive Officer of the Washington International Trade Association (WITA) and Washington International Trade Foundation.

WITA is the world’s largest non-profit, non-partisan membership organization dedicated to providing a neutral forum for the open and robust discussion of international trade policy and economic issues. WITA and its affiliated groups have over 10,000 members, and more than 160 corporate sponsors and group memberships.

Ken has over 30 years of experience working with companies, associations, NGOs and governments, advocating innovative solutions to complex public policy challenges. Over the years, Ken has worked with clients in the technology, telecommunications, biopharmaceuticals, agriculture and food, financial services, retail, apparel, energy, and consumer products sectors.

Previously, Ken served as Senior Director for Global Government Affairs for AstraZeneca. Prior to joining AstraZeneca, Ken served as Senior Vice President and COO at the Washington, DC consulting firm of Fontheim International. Ken joined Fontheim after spending six years on the staff of U.S. Senator John D. (Jay) Rockefeller IV. Ken advised the Senator on foreign policy and national security matters, and served as the Senator’s chief advisor on the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, dealing with issues related to international trade and tax policy.

Ken received his Master’s Degree from New York University after doing his undergraduate work at the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst. Ken also spent a year studying at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Ken and his wife, the Reverend Donna Marsh, live in Bethesda, MD, with their two daughters.

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On Monday, January 31st, and Tuesday, February 1st, 2022, WITA hosted its fourth annual Washington International Trade Conference (WITC). This conference brought together leaders in international trade from across the U.S. and around the world to explore the trade landscape and look toward the future of trade.

 Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Moderator: Ambassador Kristen Silverberg, President & COO, Business Roundtable; former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union 

Aik Hoe Lim, Director, Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization

Kelly K. Milton, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Ambassador Gloria Abraham Peralta, Costa Rica’s Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization, Co-Chair, Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD), World Trade Organization

Moderator: Sarah Stewart, Executive Director, Silverado Policy Accelerator; former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Angela Ellard, Deputy Director General, World Trade Organization

Moderator: Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative; former Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization

Amy P. Celico, Principal Albright Stonebridge Group | Dentons Global Advisors; former Senior Director for China Affairs, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center & New America, Yale Law School

Moderator: Erin Ennis, Vice President, Global Public Policy, Dell Technologies

Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Canadian Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Tomita Koji, Japanese Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, European Union Ambassador to the United States

Moderator: Ambassador Susan Schwab, Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP; former U.S. Trade Representative

Orit Frenkel, CEO, American Leadership Initiative

Ed Gresser, Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute (PPI)

Jeffrey Kucik, Associate Professor, School of Government and Public Policy at University of Arizona

Chad Thompson, Executive Director for Legal Affairs & Trade, General Motors

Moderator: Sarah Thorn, Senior Director of Global Government Affairs, Walmart

Jon Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, National Retail Federation

Phil Levy, Chief Economist, Flexport

Penny Naas, President of International Public Affairs and Sustainability, UPS

Maria Zieba, Assistant Vice President of International Affairs, National Pork Producers Council

Moderator: Ana Swanson, Correspondent, New York Times

Ambassador Sarah Bianchi, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Moderator: Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner & President & CEO, Crowell & Moring LLP and C&M International; Former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

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On April 29, 2021, WITA discussed the efforts to create a global minimum tax, and related international tax and trade issues.

PROGRAM AGENDA 

Welcome: 10:00 AM (US/Eastern)

• Kenneth Levinson, Executive Director, WITA

• Lilian V. Faulhaber, Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center
• Loren C. Ponds, Member, Miller & Chevalier Chartered – former Chief Tax Counsel, Ways & Means Republican
• Bob Stack, Managing Director, Washington National Tax | International Tax Group, Deloitte Tax LLP
• Moderator: Antonia Ferrier, Chief Strategic Communications Officer, CGCN Group

• Q & A with Audience – Webinar attendees are encouraged to use the Q&A function on the Zoom app to submit their questions in real time.

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES

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On Monday, February 8th, and Tuesday, February 9th, 2021, WITA hosted its third annual Washington International Trade Conference (WITC) for the first time virtually. This conference brought together leaders in both the public and private trade sectors to discuss pressing issues and trends surrounding trade policy. 

The event began with remarks from Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA, as he introduced the first group of panelists: Wendy Cutler, President and Managing Director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, Susan Shirk, Research Professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of Politics & International Affairs at Princeton University, and Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, who shared their thoughts on how trade fits into the overall US-China relationship. 

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around the overall US-China relationship and how trade fits into the larger picture. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Looking forward to the Biden administration, the panelists discussed where we are now in our relationship with China, how the Biden review will be conducted, and how trade fits into this multi-faceted relationship. Over the past few months we have seen RCEP signed, the development of the China EU investment deal, and we have now heard talk about China reviving trilateral negotiations with Japan and Korea. The panelists explored the potential impact of the Biden review and present internal focus on China’s growing hegemonic status. 

The Trade & Environmental Sustainability Panel focused on the growing global concern of climate change and how this issue intersects with trade. As the United States has most recently rejoined the Paris Accords and a variety of new executive orders have underpinned the Biden administration’s focus on mitigating climate change, there has been a shift in the international system on the pertinence of this issue. It is important to recognize where the U.S. and its allies now stand on sustainable policies that influence trade and consider how realistic it would be for less developed countries to accommodate the necessary standard to fight climate change. 

The discussion focused on both the EU and New Zealand’s positions on climate change as they relate to trade and what we should center our negotiations on going forward. Although there is promise with the Biden administration on these issues, it is undetermined what the administration’s nationally determined contribution in the Paris agreement will be which will be an important indicator of the level of emissions and leadership role on climate change. The panelists were Amb. Robert Holleyman, Partner at Crowell & Morning LLP, C&M International, Amb. Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade, Madelaine Tuininga, DG Trade Head of Unit in the European Commission, and Himamauli Das, Senior Managing Director at K2 Integrity. 

The next panel centered around finding a way forward on digital trade and delved into the intersection between trade and technology. As more and more countries are considering how they may tax or regulate the space, this issue has become of increasing relevance. As digital tools are a crucial driver of U.S. economic growth, it is clear they present both an incredible opportunity for progress and new challenges. The panelists featured were Arrow Augerot, Director of America’s Public Policy at Amazon, Jason Oxman, President & CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council, Sahra English, Vice President of Public Policy at Mastercard, and Peter Swire, Senior Counsel at Alston & Bird LLP. 

The final panel of the day was the Ambassadors Trade Roundtable with panelists: Amb. Susan Schwab, Mayer Brown LLP, Dame Karen Pierce DCMG, British Ambassador to the USA, Amb. Nestor Forster Brazil’s Ambassador to the USA, Amb. Stavros Lambrinidis EU Ambassador to the USA, and Amb. Arthur Sinodinos Australia’s Ambassador to the USA. The ambassadors shed light on the trade landscape from their perspectives and offered insight into what is important in their countries in dealing with the U.S. and other trading partners. The discussion later touched on the future of the WTO and what each ambassador saw as top priorities for the organization to address.

The second day of WITA’s virtual conference program opened with remarks from Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA and Amb. Alan Wm. Wolff, Deputy Director General of the WTO. Amb. Alan Wolff shared his thoughts on necessary reform and revitalization of the WTO and how its role should evolve. Terence Stewart, author of the blog Current Thoughts on Trade, joined the discussion and gauged Amb. Wolff’s perspective on the WTO’s interest in engaging in more sectoral and regional trade agreements. 

The following panel built off of the previous discussion into a more in-depth conversation about WTO Revitalization & Reform from a broader group of perspectives. Many of the panelists highlighted the importance of improving our relationship with China, getting our dispute settlement system back on track and addressing pertinent 21st century issues such as those involving digital trade and climate change. The panelists featured were Amb. Rufus Yerxa, National Foreign Trade Council, Jennifer Hillman, Council on Foreign Relations, Simon Evenett from the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Hiddo Houben, EU Mission to the WTO.

The next panel centered around the question: “What would a Neo-Progressive Trade Agenda look like?” with panelists from around the world. The panel opened with an introductory discussion of how the WTO has lagged in recognizing the intersection of trade with other issues today and the importance of looking at things in a more wholistic way. Some of the speakers brought up issues related to the environment, gender and labor that requires a new model of trade in order to create shared prosperity and growth. The panelists featured were: Catherine Novelli, Listening For America, Beth Baltzan, American Phoenix Trade Advisory Service, Catherine Feingold AFL-CIO International Department, Katrin Kuhlmann, New Markets Lab, and Kimberley Botwright from the World Economic Forum. 

For the closing keynote and discussion of the conference, WITA was pleased to present Chairman Neal of the House Ways & Means Committee who offered his insight into the contours of trade policy in 2021 and Steve Lamar of the American Apparel & Footwear Association and WITA’s Board President. The Chairman stressed the importance of using trade tools to address many of the issues we face today and the promise of the Biden administration to tackle inequities and reassert U.S. leadership.  

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On Thursday, June 18th, WITA hosted a webinar with panelists who discussed why digital tools are more essential than ever in the midst of a global pandemic and enforced distancing across the world. Additionally, they discussed how policy makers are responding to this unprecedented change in the way we work, communicate and engage, and if trade policy up to the task.  

WITA Webinar Featuring: 

Jake Colvin, Executive Director, Global Innovation Forum and Vice President, National Foreign Trade Council.

Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Senior Trade Policy Analyst, the (OECD) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Ambassador Frances Lisson, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Australia to the World Trade Organization.

Moderator: Wendy Cutler, Vice President, and Managing Director, Washington D.C. office of the Asia Society Policy Institute

Webinar Summary:

The webinar began with Moderator Wendy Cutler summarizing the trend of increasing use of digital tools within the trade community due to the COVID-19 crisis, including WTO e-commerce law negotiations and digital service taxes. Wendy then asked Jake Colvin about how the pandemic has accelerated the use of digital technologies by small businesses, and he noted the more frequent use of social media platforms to sell products and an overall reliance on e-commerce ecosystems to run product based businesses.

Javier Lopez Gonzalez elaborated on this trend in the context of the OECD, which has been employing  google mobility data to track changes. According to their findings, there has been a 56% reduction in workplace mobility and 20-30% increase in connectivity and internet traffic. He also suggested that trade can help to reduce the cost of accessing digital networks globally, and that barriers to digital services have increased along with the recent demand.

Wendy and Ambassador Lisson proceeded to dive into the ongoing WTO e-commerce negotiations that currently include 84 member states working on a joint statement. They have two plenary sessions upcoming in July, and the Ambassador emphasized the need to create a consolidated text as quickly as possible to address the obvious issues of data and privacy concerns.

In the following Q&A session led by WITA Executive Director Ken Levinson, the panelists were asked about how negotiations are taking place digitally, how to avoid a patchwork of multiple plurilateral agreements regarding e-commerce laws, and methodology for shipment and customs barriers to digitally sold services and products.

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The event began with remarks from Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President of Trade Center Management Associates and Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. We were fortunate enough to hear Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, as he discussed the dissolution of the appellate body and his thoughts on global dispute settlements going forward. This was followed by an armchair discussion with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around how China had changed its own image within the last 20 years and the radical shifts it has made from being relatively closed off to countries who were not direct allies to joining the WTO in 2001. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Since the Trump administration’s Phase One deal, China has become more cautious as to its approach to its relationship with the United States and there were voiced concerns from all panelists as to China’s willingness to follow through with their end of the agreement let alone get to a Phase Two before the end of the coming general election cycle. The panelists were Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Professor Ann Lee, author of  “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”, Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, Clete Willems, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, and Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader at Ernst & Young.

The NextGenTrade panel was centered around the evolution of trade due to advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, 3D printing, as well as financial technology developments. While 3D trade was not as disruptive of an invention as was expected with regards to its ability to rapidly manufacture and place highly developed countries over developing ones, the ability of AI to do that was discussed in depth. Another issue that was brought up was blokchain’s ability to carry out anonymous, financial transactions that could skew U.S. financial markets with disruptive, malicious financial technologies from China, Russia, and Iran.

While illegal and purposefully harmful technologies were discussed, there could also be a market for legal and productive digital trade surrounding financial tools bolstered by AI and insured in its ability to be untampered with by blockchain based networks. Which type of digital trade economy develops over the next few years is dependent on which country holds dominance in both financial and economic markets. The panelists were Susan Lund the Director of Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, Julia Nielson the Head of the Development Division at the Trade & Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Paul Triolo the Practice Head of Geo-Technology at the Eurasia Group, and Jake Colvin, Executive Director of the Global Innovation Forum.

The next morning panel was the press roundtable, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” With trade on the forefront of many news outlets, this year was particularly interesting to hear from members of the press. From senior experts to junior correspondents, Ambassador Susan C. Schwab of Mayer Brown LLP moderated a discussion between prominent reporters on current trade topics and trends. Not only were the discussants able to share their experiences with the press, but they also gave their personal insight and predictions for how key trade issues will progress and be resolved. The featured panelists were Jenny Leonard, a junior reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, the Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a Trade and Economics Correspondent at the New York Times.

Rich Thau, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, started our afternoon sessions with a presentation on his research, “The Swing Voter Project,” which analyzes the thinking and opinions of swing voters of the past two presidential elections. In addition to discussing trends and the demographics of the voters interviewed, he also touched on the issues they found to be most important and most decisive for the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. He found that in regard to trade policy, it was not necessarily the concept of open trade that these voters were wary about, but more so immigration policy that might accompany it. This was followed by a conversation with Kimberly Ellis, Principal at the Monument Policy Group. They discussed the implications of his research, as well as his predictions for the upcoming election cycle.

Next on the afternoon agenda was, “A Fireside Chat: ‘Tarrified’ of Trade Talks?” Hosts of the Trade Talks podcast Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Soumaya Keynes, the Trade and Globalization Editor for the Economist gave commentary on the troubles of the appellate body of the World Trade Organization. Using a more historical lens, Bown and Keynes analyzed policy of the WTO and gave insight as to what could be done to restore a balanced dispute settlement system in trade.

Ambassador Robert Zoellick gave his remarks in the next session. Zoellick discussed both his pessimism towards the Trump Administration’s global trade plans as well as the degradation of U.S. relations to a multilateral system. Ambassador Zoellick also spoke on the strategic harnessing of all types of trading systems, specifically that the best and most strategically competent trade policy measures would be the ones that can harness regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade networks together instead of dogmatically chasing one. He also advised business owners to innovate supply chains that are more rigid and flexible to the coming era of trade uncertainty. His remarks were followed by a conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The concluding panel, “Trade Around the World,” featured a conversation between foreign ambassadors to the United States on both the conflict surrounding the dispute settlement process of the WTO as well as their take on relations between their countries and the U.S. From discussing the need to establish a rules-based system in trade relations to their countries’ stakes in the global market and foreign direct investment from and into the United States, the panelists gave interesting insight as to the climate of trade policy in years to come. Moderated by Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs at UPS, the featured panelists were H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore, H.E. Stavros Labrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, and H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia.

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Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable

By: James Dail

On January 29^th, 2019 WITA hosted a panel discussion entitled “Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable” as a part of the inaugural Washington International Trade Conference. In the past, WITA events have featured reporters moderating panels or asking speakers pertinent questions. This event was notable for turning the tables and allowing the audience to ask member of the press about their thoughts on trade issues. The reporters featured in the roundtable discussion were Gina Chon, a Washington Columnist at Reuters Breakingviews, Shawn Donnan, a Senior Writer at Bloomberg, and David Lynch, a Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post. Dorothy Dwoskin, the Principal of d2Strategies LLC, was the event’s moderator.

Dorothy Dwoskin opened the roundtable by asking the panelists how the current administration has altered their reporting of trade issues. Shawn Donnan respond to the query first, noting that trade is now an issue at the forefront of public discussion, whereas it had previously been an area that had a slower pace of news and lacked prominent exposure to the public. He stated that much of this shift can be attributed to this administration’s challenge of the long-standing, fundamental assumptions around trade policy. Shawn concluded his thoughts by observing that the diversity of viewpoints within this administration have made reporters unsure if lower-level officials are speaking for the administration or pushing their own agendas.

Gina Chon joined the discussion by echoing this thought, saying that opposing factions within the administration, as well as the President’s tendency to change his opinion based on current circumstance, has made reporting difficult. From there, she altered the discussion by observing that a new aspect of her job is that foreign officials are asking reporters for advice on how to deal with the current administration.

David Lynch answered Dorothy’s question with three main points. He said that the changes fundamentally come down to access, pace, and priority. Access to the USTR has greatly diminished in this administration, due to a fundamental stylistic difference between Robert Lighthizer and previous agency heads. While this change might be good for the USTR, it has made it difficult for reporters to foresee any upcoming policy changes before they actually occur. This lack of access creates chaos in the media when it is coupled with the blitzkrieg-like pace of the administration’s changes in trade policy. Lynch concluded by stating that this issue has been prioritized by the administration, which is attributable to the fact that trade has been one of the few issues that President has maintained a constant position on over the course of several decades.

Mrs. Dwoskin then moved on to her second question, asking how Congress has affected trade policy during this administration. Shawn Donnan answered this by saying that he is curious about two things regarding Congress. The first being if Congress will assert itself differently now that Democrats have control of the House. The second being how the changing grassroots politics of trade will shape Congress’ attitude towards trade issues leading up to the 2020 elections. For though renegotiating trade deals has been one of the signature issues of this administration, polls indicate that trade is more popular than at any time since the 2016 election cycle. Mr. Lynch continued Shawn’s line of thought, saying that he is interested to see if and how a bipartisan consensus towards China develops. If it does, then the President could find himself attacked for being too soft on China. In 2016, he set a high bar for success by using the trade deficit as a metric, and on this front,  he has completely failed to deliver. The trade deficit is higher today than when he first took office.

Gina Chon was the next to speak, saying that whenever she speaks with members of Congress, she is always struck by their hesitancy to confront the President on trade, even when tariffs are hurting businesses in their districts. She also noted that there are anti-trade sentiments within the Democratic Party, citing supporters of Bernie Sanders who were vocally opposed to the TPP at the 2016 DNC. She is curious to note how this will affect trade policy and the politics behind it, both at present and in 2020.

Dorothy Dwoskin shifted the discussion to Gina’s final point by asking about the role of the media in 2020. Is there anything the press can do to correct any public misperception of trade issues? Mr. Lynch largely thought no. He stated that while the Washington Post frequently runs stories about how tariffs are affecting ordinary Americans, and that those stories do quite well, he does not think he is changing any minds. The Post’s audience was largely anti-tariff to begin with.

Mrs. Chon felt that the only way for public perception to dramatically change on trade is for the average voter to experience pain because of protectionist trade policies. While tariffs are costing many firms, they can currently absorb those costs and are not in immediate danger of bankruptcy.

Shawn diverged from Gina’s view that drastic pain, such as factory closings, are needed for a change in pubic perception. He believes the general public views trade deficits in the same lens as the President, as a statement of profit and loss. Policy is complex. Relying on explaining it effectively to the public will always be a losing battle. Because of this, he wonders if tariffs might be necessary every few decades to remind the public that it is a bad policy. However, he is relieved to notice that both on Twitter and in his day to day interactions, the public seems to be changing its mind. David Lynch added to Gina and Shawn’s thoughts by saying that, while the backlash to tariffs has clearly begun, it will change further with the economic landscape. While it might be easy for firms to absorb costs now, many will begin to close if the US economy slides into a recession.

Dorothy’s next question pivoted the discussion to the China negotiations. She noted that this administration keeps things close to its chest, and she asked the reporters what signals they look for to see if any changes are about to occur. David responded by echoing that the administration had made things more difficult than usual. He went on to say that in the best-case scenario, an announcement comes from the USTR saying that things are moving along wonderfully and that the two nations are close to a deal. In the worst-case, an announcement comes saying that the two parties are still at an impasse. However, he is doubtful that any announcement will occur in the near future.

Mr. Donnan added to this by shifting to the particulars of what a potential deal might look like. He believes that the type of deal America receives is dependent on how the markets are performing. China is facing a slowdown, and ideally, they will want to be able to make a deal that is presentable to the public and can generate growth. Another factor that needs to be considered is that Trump is coming off of a shutdown defeat, and he does not want to look weak. However, he agrees with Mr. Lynch in that a deal is likely still far off. The announcements so far indicate that the negotiations are still at their early stages, as the two parties do not yet have a common document in place where they are discussing details.

Mrs. Chon stated that another aspect that should be considered is that the Chinses delegation will most likely meet with the President at some point, and she is curious to know how the President’s positions are different from the USTR’s. In addition, she echoed Mr. Donnan’s sentiments about China’s need to present this to their public as a win.

In her next question, Mrs. Dwoskin further pursued this area of discussion, asking what the differences are in how the US and China are framing the negotiations. Mr. Lynch stated that the Chinese get more proactive with their public relations with every passing year, but they are not nearly as aggressive in this area as a Western media institution. He then said that the lack of an organized policy process coming out of the Trump administration as made it easy for the US media pundits to spin whatever message out of the negotiations that they like and present what they think the administration’s position ought to be. Gina Chon added to this by saying that a crucial portion of the media narrative in both countries is the aftermath of the FBI’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO, and that it is fictional to suggest that it will not affect the trade negotiations in any way.

Dorothy moved the discussion to the 232 tariffs, asking how they specifically will play into the negotiations and affect the other items on the administration’s agenda. Shawn Donnan answered first, stating that he believes the steel and aluminum tariffs could negatively affect the trilateral relationship of the US, EU, and Japan at the WTO if the US comes out of these negotiations with the tariffs in place in any form. The reason this could be damaging is because Trump promised Abe on multiple occasions that the tariffs would be removed. Furthermore, Donnan believes that the tariffs negatively affecting the auto industry will likely factor into the negotiations in some form. General Motors is laying off thousands of workers throughout February, and while the layoffs are not directly attributable to the tariffs, the higher cost they bring is certainly not helping the situation. Given that these layoffs are occurring in Midwestern swing states, the President will likely want to produce a deal that is beneficial to the automobile industry and betters his political situation.

Following these comments from Mr. Donnan, the panel moved on to question and answer. The first question asked pertained to how Republicans and Democrats will each frame the narrative of the trade negotiations leading up to the 2020 election cycle. David Lynch answered this by saying that the President will argue that he has accomplished what he promised in 2016 by ending and altering existing US trade deals. The Democrats will respond to this narrative by arguing that the President set the bar high for himself and that he did not accomplish what he promised. They will point to the President’s use of the trade deficit as a metric for how the country is performing on trade and how it has grown during his tenure.

Shawn Donnan posed his own question to the audience, asking if America’s depleted manufacturing communities are better off than when the President took office. The Democrats are going to ask the voters in these communities if the President has delivered on his promises. However, he also argued that trade will become a subsidiary issue by 2020, noting that other events and policy ideas are featured more prominently on the front page.

Gina Chon believes that the rhetoric in 2020 will be predicated on the results of the 2018 midterms. She noted that many traditionally blue districts that voted for Trump in 2016 returned to the Democrats in 2018. She stated that a key driver of this shift has been the blowback to the President’s tariff policies in states such as Michigan, which were crucial to his original victory.

The second question asked was addressed to Mr. Donnan, asking about why he thought trade issues will be out of the headlines by 2020. Shawn responded by expanding upon his views, stating that while the debate over trade might not vanish, it now seems to have been tabled in political debate. The media is consumed by the Russian investigation, and the barrage of leaks coming out of the White House. Simultaneously, policy debate has shifted towards proposals from the Democrats such as Medicare for all and the Green New Deal.

The concluding question was addressed to the panel broadly, asking the reporters if they believe that Trump will follow through with his threat to completely destroy NAFTA. The three panelists all gave variations of the same answer. They all believed that it will most likely not occur, but the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely. If this was to occur, it would most probably be used as political leverage if the President did not have a favorable policy outcome on another issue.

Featuring:

Dorothy Dwoskin, Principal, d2 Strategies LLC

Gina Chon, Washington Columnist, Reuters Breakingviews

Shawn Donnan, Senior Writer, Bloomberg News

David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent, The Washington Post

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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