On Monday, February 8th, and Tuesday, February 9th, 2021, WITA hosted its third annual Washington International Trade Conference (WITC) for the first time virtually. This conference brought together leaders in both the public and private trade sectors to discuss pressing issues and trends surrounding trade policy. 

The event began with remarks from Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA, as he introduced the first group of panelists: Wendy Cutler, President and Managing Director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, Susan Shirk, Research Professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, Aaron L. Friedberg, Professor of Politics & International Affairs at Princeton University, and Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, who shared their thoughts on how trade fits into the overall US-China relationship. 

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around the overall US-China relationship and how trade fits into the larger picture. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Looking forward to the Biden administration, the panelists discussed where we are now in our relationship with China, how the Biden review will be conducted, and how trade fits into this multi-faceted relationship. Over the past few months we have seen RCEP signed, the development of the China EU investment deal, and we have now heard talk about China reviving trilateral negotiations with Japan and Korea. The panelists explored the potential impact of the Biden review and present internal focus on China’s growing hegemonic status. 

The Trade & Environmental Sustainability Panel focused on the growing global concern of climate change and how this issue intersects with trade. As the United States has most recently rejoined the Paris Accords and a variety of new executive orders have underpinned the Biden administration’s focus on mitigating climate change, there has been a shift in the international system on the pertinence of this issue. It is important to recognize where the U.S. and its allies now stand on sustainable policies that influence trade and consider how realistic it would be for less developed countries to accommodate the necessary standard to fight climate change. 

The discussion focused on both the EU and New Zealand’s positions on climate change as they relate to trade and what we should center our negotiations on going forward. Although there is promise with the Biden administration on these issues, it is undetermined what the administration’s nationally determined contribution in the Paris agreement will be which will be an important indicator of the level of emissions and leadership role on climate change. The panelists were Amb. Robert Holleyman, Partner at Crowell & Morning LLP, C&M International, Amb. Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade, Madelaine Tuininga, DG Trade Head of Unit in the European Commission, and Himamauli Das, Senior Managing Director at K2 Integrity. 

The next panel centered around finding a way forward on digital trade and delved into the intersection between trade and technology. As more and more countries are considering how they may tax or regulate the space, this issue has become of increasing relevance. As digital tools are a crucial driver of U.S. economic growth, it is clear they present both an incredible opportunity for progress and new challenges. The panelists featured were Arrow Augerot, Director of America’s Public Policy at Amazon, Jason Oxman, President & CEO of the Information Technology Industry Council, Sahra English, Vice President of Public Policy at Mastercard, and Peter Swire, Senior Counsel at Alston & Bird LLP. 

The final panel of the day was the Ambassadors Trade Roundtable with panelists: Amb. Susan Schwab, Mayer Brown LLP, Dame Karen Pierce DCMG, British Ambassador to the USA, Amb. Nestor Forster Brazil’s Ambassador to the USA, Amb. Stavros Lambrinidis EU Ambassador to the USA, and Amb. Arthur Sinodinos Australia’s Ambassador to the USA. The ambassadors shed light on the trade landscape from their perspectives and offered insight into what is important in their countries in dealing with the U.S. and other trading partners. The discussion later touched on the future of the WTO and what each ambassador saw as top priorities for the organization to address.

The second day of WITA’s virtual conference program opened with remarks from Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA and Amb. Alan Wm. Wolff, Deputy Director General of the WTO. Amb. Alan Wolff shared his thoughts on necessary reform and revitalization of the WTO and how its role should evolve. Terence Stewart, author of the blog Current Thoughts on Trade, joined the discussion and gauged Amb. Wolff’s perspective on the WTO’s interest in engaging in more sectoral and regional trade agreements. 

The following panel built off of the previous discussion into a more in-depth conversation about WTO Revitalization & Reform from a broader group of perspectives. Many of the panelists highlighted the importance of improving our relationship with China, getting our dispute settlement system back on track and addressing pertinent 21st century issues such as those involving digital trade and climate change. The panelists featured were Amb. Rufus Yerxa, National Foreign Trade Council, Jennifer Hillman, Council on Foreign Relations, Simon Evenett from the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Hiddo Houben, EU Mission to the WTO.

The next panel centered around the question: “What would a Neo-Progressive Trade Agenda look like?” with panelists from around the world. The panel opened with an introductory discussion of how the WTO has lagged in recognizing the intersection of trade with other issues today and the importance of looking at things in a more wholistic way. Some of the speakers brought up issues related to the environment, gender and labor that requires a new model of trade in order to create shared prosperity and growth. The panelists featured were: Catherine Novelli, Listening For America, Beth Baltzan, American Phoenix Trade Advisory Service, Catherine Feingold AFL-CIO International Department, Katrin Kuhlmann, New Markets Lab, and Kimberley Botwright from the World Economic Forum. 

For the closing keynote and discussion of the conference, WITA was pleased to present Chairman Neal of the House Ways & Means Committee who offered his insight into the contours of trade policy in 2021 and Steve Lamar of the American Apparel & Footwear Association and WITA’s Board President. The Chairman stressed the importance of using trade tools to address many of the issues we face today and the promise of the Biden administration to tackle inequities and reassert U.S. leadership.  

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On Thursday, June 4th, WITA hosted a webinar examining critical issues ahead of the July 1^st implementation date, and the impact of COVID-19 on the ability of companies to achieve their implementation goals in the midst of the pandemic.

WITA Webinar Featuring: 

Jamieson Greer, Partner at King & Spalding and former Chief of Staff in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Kenneth Smith Ramos, Partner, AGON and Mexico’s Former Chief Negotiator for NAFTA

Governor Matt Blunt, President, American Automotive Policy Council and former Governor of Missouri

Kellie Meiman Hock, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates

Webinar Summary:

The webinar began with Moderator Kellie Meiman Hock asking Jamieson Greer about the likelihood of meeting the July 1st deadline for the implementation of USMCA. He compared this process to NAFTA, when the uniform regulations did not come out until a year the official implementation. Since we have already seen these regulations, Jamieson expressed optimism about the pace of the implementation process. He elaborated on the details of the labor value content rules for automotive industries and other labor department regulations.

Governor Matt Blunt then responded to Kellie’s question regarding the transition from NAFTA to USMCA regulations within the automotive sector, calling the July 1st deadline ambitious but doable. He, like Jamieson, was pleased that the uniform regulations came out, but saw some initial areas for improvement: weight averaging for light and heavy duty trucks would make industry compliance easier, and an administration-granted period of duty deferral would help companies get their documents organized in order to demonstrate compliance.

Kellie moved on to the topic of Mexico’s timeline for compliance, asking Kenneth Smith Ramos about how Mexican factories had been faring during the COVID-19 pandemic. He cited the disconnect between the North American countries’ list of essential industries as an ongoing issue contributing to supply chain disruption, but asserted Mexico’s overall preparedness to implement USMCA at the regulatory level.

The panelists also discussed the potential weaknesses of the rapid response mechanism within the agreement and the overall production levels of Mexican suppliers, followed by a Q&A session that addressed viewer questions about the cost of compliance for auto companies, the process of selecting panelists, and how the USMCA ties in with sustainability practices in trade.

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The event began with remarks from Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President of Trade Center Management Associates and Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director of WITA. We were fortunate enough to hear Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, as he discussed the dissolution of the appellate body and his thoughts on global dispute settlements going forward. This was followed by an armchair discussion with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The U.S. China panel was primarily focused around how China had changed its own image within the last 20 years and the radical shifts it has made from being relatively closed off to countries who were not direct allies to joining the WTO in 2001. From joining the WTO to now, China has significantly increased its dominance in global trade, economic, and financial markets and has now become a credible threat to U.S. hegemony due to large economic pressure.

Since the Trump administration’s Phase One deal, China has become more cautious as to its approach to its relationship with the United States and there were voiced concerns from all panelists as to China’s willingness to follow through with their end of the agreement let alone get to a Phase Two before the end of the coming general election cycle. The panelists were Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Professor Ann Lee, author of  “What the US Can Learn from China” and “Will China’s Economy Collapse?”, Ambassador Kurt Tong, Partner at The Asia Group, Clete Willems, Partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, and Douglas M. Bell, Global Trade Policy Leader at Ernst & Young.

The NextGenTrade panel was centered around the evolution of trade due to advanced technologies such as AI, blockchain, 3D printing, as well as financial technology developments. While 3D trade was not as disruptive of an invention as was expected with regards to its ability to rapidly manufacture and place highly developed countries over developing ones, the ability of AI to do that was discussed in depth. Another issue that was brought up was blokchain’s ability to carry out anonymous, financial transactions that could skew U.S. financial markets with disruptive, malicious financial technologies from China, Russia, and Iran.

While illegal and purposefully harmful technologies were discussed, there could also be a market for legal and productive digital trade surrounding financial tools bolstered by AI and insured in its ability to be untampered with by blockchain based networks. Which type of digital trade economy develops over the next few years is dependent on which country holds dominance in both financial and economic markets. The panelists were Susan Lund the Director of Research at the McKinsey Global Institute, Julia Nielson the Head of the Development Division at the Trade & Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Paul Triolo the Practice Head of Geo-Technology at the Eurasia Group, and Jake Colvin, Executive Director of the Global Innovation Forum.

The next morning panel was the press roundtable, “Meet the [Trade] Press.” With trade on the forefront of many news outlets, this year was particularly interesting to hear from members of the press. From senior experts to junior correspondents, Ambassador Susan C. Schwab of Mayer Brown LLP moderated a discussion between prominent reporters on current trade topics and trends. Not only were the discussants able to share their experiences with the press, but they also gave their personal insight and predictions for how key trade issues will progress and be resolved. The featured panelists were Jenny Leonard, a junior reporter at Bloomberg News, David Lynch, the Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, James Politi, the World Trade Editor of the Financial Times, and Ana Swanson, a Trade and Economics Correspondent at the New York Times.

Rich Thau, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, started our afternoon sessions with a presentation on his research, “The Swing Voter Project,” which analyzes the thinking and opinions of swing voters of the past two presidential elections. In addition to discussing trends and the demographics of the voters interviewed, he also touched on the issues they found to be most important and most decisive for the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. He found that in regard to trade policy, it was not necessarily the concept of open trade that these voters were wary about, but more so immigration policy that might accompany it. This was followed by a conversation with Kimberly Ellis, Principal at the Monument Policy Group. They discussed the implications of his research, as well as his predictions for the upcoming election cycle.

Next on the afternoon agenda was, “A Fireside Chat: ‘Tarrified’ of Trade Talks?” Hosts of the Trade Talks podcast Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics and Soumaya Keynes, the Trade and Globalization Editor for the Economist gave commentary on the troubles of the appellate body of the World Trade Organization. Using a more historical lens, Bown and Keynes analyzed policy of the WTO and gave insight as to what could be done to restore a balanced dispute settlement system in trade.

Ambassador Robert Zoellick gave his remarks in the next session. Zoellick discussed both his pessimism towards the Trump Administration’s global trade plans as well as the degradation of U.S. relations to a multilateral system. Ambassador Zoellick also spoke on the strategic harnessing of all types of trading systems, specifically that the best and most strategically competent trade policy measures would be the ones that can harness regional, bilateral, and multilateral trade networks together instead of dogmatically chasing one. He also advised business owners to innovate supply chains that are more rigid and flexible to the coming era of trade uncertainty. His remarks were followed by a conversation with Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

The concluding panel, “Trade Around the World,” featured a conversation between foreign ambassadors to the United States on both the conflict surrounding the dispute settlement process of the WTO as well as their take on relations between their countries and the U.S. From discussing the need to establish a rules-based system in trade relations to their countries’ stakes in the global market and foreign direct investment from and into the United States, the panelists gave interesting insight as to the climate of trade policy in years to come. Moderated by Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs at UPS, the featured panelists were H.E. Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Ambassador of Singapore, H.E. Stavros Labrinidis, Ambassador of the European Union, H.E. Rosemary Banks, Ambassador of New Zealand, and H.E. Fitsum Arega, Ambassador of Ethiopia.

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Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), Chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee discussed the Subcommittee agenda, his priorities, his views of the Administration’s trade agenda, and what we might expect on USMCA, trade talks with China, and pending FTA discussions. 

FEATURING

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR)

Steve Lamar, Executive Vice President, American Apparel & Footwear Association

Amid rising tensions and ongoing negotiations, the issue of trade has become a central point of discussion among media organizations, lawmakers, and businesses alike. This WITA event welcomed the chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee, Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), who offered his views on the current state of international trade. After introductory remarks from Ken I. Levinson, WITA’s executive director, and moderator Steve Lamar, the Executive Vice President of American Apparel and Footwear and President of WITA’s Board of Directors, Rep. Blumenauer began his opening statement. 

Rep. Blumenauer was frank in his analysis of the situation. He voiced his belief that robust international trade was necessary for economic activity and growth, and criticized President Trump’s “drive-by tariffs” and “vexing” agenda. Such instability undercuts the United States’ position with China, who he identified as a negative and ruthless actor in the international community. After years of tension, he did not want to come out with only a purchase order to show.  

Rep. Blumenauer also commented on the original NAFTA agreement, identifying its various weaknesses and shortcomings. It failed to produce substantial benefits for foreign workers. For example, after adjusting for inflation, the average Mexican worker is making less today than they did pre-NAFTA. Further, it failed to reduce the crisis at the U.S.-Mexican border, and did not comprehensively address pressing environmental issues. 

Following his initial remarks, Rep. Blumenauer answered questions from the moderator, Steve Lamar, as well as the audience. Lamar opened with an inquiry about the labor standards and enforcement mechanisms outlined in USMCA, asking about the path forward for House Democrats on the issue. Rep. Blumenauer began by praising the Mexican government. He commended them for the significant steps they had taken to improve labor conditions, and voiced his confidence in the commitments given by the Mexican government. However, he also identified the need for trust building, and increasing the capacity of the USMCA to process the sheer number of anticipated contracts. 

When asked about whether or not he was satisfied with the trade hearings and vetting process for the Tranche 4 tariffs, Rep. Blumenauer gave a simple answer: “No.” He went on to explain how for many initiatives, the administration had failed to procure the proper resources for them to be successful. He called it “non-sensical,” and stated that “if they can’t implement it, just stop it!” He also stated that Congress has been too complicit in the expansion of Executive authority, and emphasized the need for Congress to re-assert its constitutional authority. Statutory guardrails for the Executive branch need to be implemented. Regardless, he called USCMA his top legislative priority, saying that “virtually everyone agrees NAFTA 2.0 is better.”

However, he cautioned against hasty expectations for USMCA’s passage. Although Mexico’s government has already approved it, he reiterated the need for the U.S. to take its time with ratification. Serious questions are still being asked, and many of the Democrats’ original requests were left out of the agreement. Rep. Blumenauer said there was little chance for the USMCA to be passed before August.

He also commented on the United States’ role in the international community. After being asked about the World Trade Organization, he said that there was concern among lawmakers about the body’s lack of U.S. leadership. The WTO is one of the United States’ major contributions to the world. As a result, Blumenauer advocated for the strengthening of WTO, as nations need a rules-based structure to promote international trade. Outside of the USMCA and China, he sees the European Union and Brexit as being prominent during the 2020 elections. He even joked that the U.K., through Brexit, competes with the U.S in terms of self-destructive behavior. 

Rep. Blumenauer was also asked about his expectations for the upcoming talks between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Given President Trump’s unpredictable behavior, China’s longevity as a nation, and their propensity to play the “long-game,” Blumenauer said he had no expectations for the meeting. To conclude, he emphasized the need for cross-cutting discussions between Democrats and Republicans on the issue of trade, and harkened back to his belief that robust international trade was crucial for economic growth. 

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Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable

By: James Dail

On January 29^th, 2019 WITA hosted a panel discussion entitled “Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable” as a part of the inaugural Washington International Trade Conference. In the past, WITA events have featured reporters moderating panels or asking speakers pertinent questions. This event was notable for turning the tables and allowing the audience to ask member of the press about their thoughts on trade issues. The reporters featured in the roundtable discussion were Gina Chon, a Washington Columnist at Reuters Breakingviews, Shawn Donnan, a Senior Writer at Bloomberg, and David Lynch, a Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post. Dorothy Dwoskin, the Principal of d2Strategies LLC, was the event’s moderator.

Dorothy Dwoskin opened the roundtable by asking the panelists how the current administration has altered their reporting of trade issues. Shawn Donnan respond to the query first, noting that trade is now an issue at the forefront of public discussion, whereas it had previously been an area that had a slower pace of news and lacked prominent exposure to the public. He stated that much of this shift can be attributed to this administration’s challenge of the long-standing, fundamental assumptions around trade policy. Shawn concluded his thoughts by observing that the diversity of viewpoints within this administration have made reporters unsure if lower-level officials are speaking for the administration or pushing their own agendas.

Gina Chon joined the discussion by echoing this thought, saying that opposing factions within the administration, as well as the President’s tendency to change his opinion based on current circumstance, has made reporting difficult. From there, she altered the discussion by observing that a new aspect of her job is that foreign officials are asking reporters for advice on how to deal with the current administration.

David Lynch answered Dorothy’s question with three main points. He said that the changes fundamentally come down to access, pace, and priority. Access to the USTR has greatly diminished in this administration, due to a fundamental stylistic difference between Robert Lighthizer and previous agency heads. While this change might be good for the USTR, it has made it difficult for reporters to foresee any upcoming policy changes before they actually occur. This lack of access creates chaos in the media when it is coupled with the blitzkrieg-like pace of the administration’s changes in trade policy. Lynch concluded by stating that this issue has been prioritized by the administration, which is attributable to the fact that trade has been one of the few issues that President has maintained a constant position on over the course of several decades.

Mrs. Dwoskin then moved on to her second question, asking how Congress has affected trade policy during this administration. Shawn Donnan answered this by saying that he is curious about two things regarding Congress. The first being if Congress will assert itself differently now that Democrats have control of the House. The second being how the changing grassroots politics of trade will shape Congress’ attitude towards trade issues leading up to the 2020 elections. For though renegotiating trade deals has been one of the signature issues of this administration, polls indicate that trade is more popular than at any time since the 2016 election cycle. Mr. Lynch continued Shawn’s line of thought, saying that he is interested to see if and how a bipartisan consensus towards China develops. If it does, then the President could find himself attacked for being too soft on China. In 2016, he set a high bar for success by using the trade deficit as a metric, and on this front,  he has completely failed to deliver. The trade deficit is higher today than when he first took office.

Gina Chon was the next to speak, saying that whenever she speaks with members of Congress, she is always struck by their hesitancy to confront the President on trade, even when tariffs are hurting businesses in their districts. She also noted that there are anti-trade sentiments within the Democratic Party, citing supporters of Bernie Sanders who were vocally opposed to the TPP at the 2016 DNC. She is curious to note how this will affect trade policy and the politics behind it, both at present and in 2020.

Dorothy Dwoskin shifted the discussion to Gina’s final point by asking about the role of the media in 2020. Is there anything the press can do to correct any public misperception of trade issues? Mr. Lynch largely thought no. He stated that while the Washington Post frequently runs stories about how tariffs are affecting ordinary Americans, and that those stories do quite well, he does not think he is changing any minds. The Post’s audience was largely anti-tariff to begin with.

Mrs. Chon felt that the only way for public perception to dramatically change on trade is for the average voter to experience pain because of protectionist trade policies. While tariffs are costing many firms, they can currently absorb those costs and are not in immediate danger of bankruptcy.

Shawn diverged from Gina’s view that drastic pain, such as factory closings, are needed for a change in pubic perception. He believes the general public views trade deficits in the same lens as the President, as a statement of profit and loss. Policy is complex. Relying on explaining it effectively to the public will always be a losing battle. Because of this, he wonders if tariffs might be necessary every few decades to remind the public that it is a bad policy. However, he is relieved to notice that both on Twitter and in his day to day interactions, the public seems to be changing its mind. David Lynch added to Gina and Shawn’s thoughts by saying that, while the backlash to tariffs has clearly begun, it will change further with the economic landscape. While it might be easy for firms to absorb costs now, many will begin to close if the US economy slides into a recession.

Dorothy’s next question pivoted the discussion to the China negotiations. She noted that this administration keeps things close to its chest, and she asked the reporters what signals they look for to see if any changes are about to occur. David responded by echoing that the administration had made things more difficult than usual. He went on to say that in the best-case scenario, an announcement comes from the USTR saying that things are moving along wonderfully and that the two nations are close to a deal. In the worst-case, an announcement comes saying that the two parties are still at an impasse. However, he is doubtful that any announcement will occur in the near future.

Mr. Donnan added to this by shifting to the particulars of what a potential deal might look like. He believes that the type of deal America receives is dependent on how the markets are performing. China is facing a slowdown, and ideally, they will want to be able to make a deal that is presentable to the public and can generate growth. Another factor that needs to be considered is that Trump is coming off of a shutdown defeat, and he does not want to look weak. However, he agrees with Mr. Lynch in that a deal is likely still far off. The announcements so far indicate that the negotiations are still at their early stages, as the two parties do not yet have a common document in place where they are discussing details.

Mrs. Chon stated that another aspect that should be considered is that the Chinses delegation will most likely meet with the President at some point, and she is curious to know how the President’s positions are different from the USTR’s. In addition, she echoed Mr. Donnan’s sentiments about China’s need to present this to their public as a win.

In her next question, Mrs. Dwoskin further pursued this area of discussion, asking what the differences are in how the US and China are framing the negotiations. Mr. Lynch stated that the Chinese get more proactive with their public relations with every passing year, but they are not nearly as aggressive in this area as a Western media institution. He then said that the lack of an organized policy process coming out of the Trump administration as made it easy for the US media pundits to spin whatever message out of the negotiations that they like and present what they think the administration’s position ought to be. Gina Chon added to this by saying that a crucial portion of the media narrative in both countries is the aftermath of the FBI’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO, and that it is fictional to suggest that it will not affect the trade negotiations in any way.

Dorothy moved the discussion to the 232 tariffs, asking how they specifically will play into the negotiations and affect the other items on the administration’s agenda. Shawn Donnan answered first, stating that he believes the steel and aluminum tariffs could negatively affect the trilateral relationship of the US, EU, and Japan at the WTO if the US comes out of these negotiations with the tariffs in place in any form. The reason this could be damaging is because Trump promised Abe on multiple occasions that the tariffs would be removed. Furthermore, Donnan believes that the tariffs negatively affecting the auto industry will likely factor into the negotiations in some form. General Motors is laying off thousands of workers throughout February, and while the layoffs are not directly attributable to the tariffs, the higher cost they bring is certainly not helping the situation. Given that these layoffs are occurring in Midwestern swing states, the President will likely want to produce a deal that is beneficial to the automobile industry and betters his political situation.

Following these comments from Mr. Donnan, the panel moved on to question and answer. The first question asked pertained to how Republicans and Democrats will each frame the narrative of the trade negotiations leading up to the 2020 election cycle. David Lynch answered this by saying that the President will argue that he has accomplished what he promised in 2016 by ending and altering existing US trade deals. The Democrats will respond to this narrative by arguing that the President set the bar high for himself and that he did not accomplish what he promised. They will point to the President’s use of the trade deficit as a metric for how the country is performing on trade and how it has grown during his tenure.

Shawn Donnan posed his own question to the audience, asking if America’s depleted manufacturing communities are better off than when the President took office. The Democrats are going to ask the voters in these communities if the President has delivered on his promises. However, he also argued that trade will become a subsidiary issue by 2020, noting that other events and policy ideas are featured more prominently on the front page.

Gina Chon believes that the rhetoric in 2020 will be predicated on the results of the 2018 midterms. She noted that many traditionally blue districts that voted for Trump in 2016 returned to the Democrats in 2018. She stated that a key driver of this shift has been the blowback to the President’s tariff policies in states such as Michigan, which were crucial to his original victory.

The second question asked was addressed to Mr. Donnan, asking about why he thought trade issues will be out of the headlines by 2020. Shawn responded by expanding upon his views, stating that while the debate over trade might not vanish, it now seems to have been tabled in political debate. The media is consumed by the Russian investigation, and the barrage of leaks coming out of the White House. Simultaneously, policy debate has shifted towards proposals from the Democrats such as Medicare for all and the Green New Deal.

The concluding question was addressed to the panel broadly, asking the reporters if they believe that Trump will follow through with his threat to completely destroy NAFTA. The three panelists all gave variations of the same answer. They all believed that it will most likely not occur, but the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely. If this was to occur, it would most probably be used as political leverage if the President did not have a favorable policy outcome on another issue.

Featuring:

Dorothy Dwoskin, Principal, d2 Strategies LLC

Gina Chon, Washington Columnist, Reuters Breakingviews

Shawn Donnan, Senior Writer, Bloomberg News

David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent, The Washington Post

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Council of the Americas

The Honourable Perrin Beatty, P.C., O.C., Former Canadian Cabinet Minister; President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Kenneth Smith Ramos, Former Mexican Chief Negotiator for the modernisation of NAFTA; Partner, AGON

Ambassador Miriam Sapiro, Managing Director, Sard Verbinnen & Co. (SVC)

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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Summary: Introduction and Armchair Discussion with Rep. Kevin Brady

By Nikhil Raj

On Tuesday January 29, 2019, WITA hosted its inaugural Washington International Trade Conference (WITC). To kick off the event, WITA hosted an armchair discussion between Representative Kevin Brady and Ambassador Susan Schwab. Representative Brady currently sits as the Ranking Member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee, while Ambassador Schwab served as the United States Trade Representative under the Bush Administration from 2006-2009.

During the approximately 25 minute conversation between the two, several key topics in the trade world were discussed, including the recently agreed upon USMCA deal, US-China negotiations, and the future of US-EU trade relations.

Representative Brady was forceful in his defense of USMCA, saying that he believed it should be approved, citing its improvements in digital trade, customs, and locking in reforms on telecoms compared to its predecessor, NAFTA. That said, he was cleareyed about the fact that it would be a turbulent road to reaching that approval. In particular, he acknowledged that many Democrats were adamant about higher enforcement mechanisms in the deal for labor standards. Brady also mentioned that he had begun the process of briefing other members of Congress about what the deal entails alongside Vern Buchanan, who sits as the lead Republican on the Subcommittee on Trade.

Brady wondered aloud what Democrat demands would look like, while also making it clear that most members on either side of the aisle were ambivalent about moving forward with the deal while steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada are ongoing. In his view, the USMCA deal was strong enough to stand by itself without any separate tariffs or quotas.

Rep. Brady was also broadly supportive of the President’s focus on challenging China on trade issues. Referencing the “Made in China 2025” strategic plan that the Chinese government is undergoing, he believed that structural reforms had to be made in the US-China relationship. While he was critical of China’s trading habits, he did not the importance of product exclusion within the larger framework of a trade deal in order to cause as little pain as possible within the global economic outlook. The main objective, he said, is to minimize the damage caused by an extended trade war while also accomplishing measurable reforms.

The conversation then switched to Europe, and the future of a potential US-EU trade deal. Brady was pleased to see President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker visit the White House and President Donald Trump, a man with whom he has had a sometimes contentious relationship. From a US standpoint, he believed a trade deal with Europe that didn’t include agriculture would not be an easy sale to the American public and members of Congress.

With regards to Brexit, and the ongoing political turmoil surrounding its terms in the United Kingdom, Rep. Brady made it clear that he wants to see an unconstrained trade relationship with one of the US’ closest allies no matter what happens. Finally, he touched on the future of the WTO, and expressed his support for working on tangible improvements.

Featuring:

Andrew Gelfuso, Vice President, Trade Center Management Associates

Kenneth Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

Laura Lane, President of Global Public Affairs, UPS

Ambassador Susan Schwab, Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown

Representative Kevin Brady, Ranking Member, House Ways and Means Committee

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

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U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement : What’s New in NAFTA 2.0?:

By Ben Stevens

FEATURING:

To view the event details, click here.

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NAFTA SERIES: WHERE ARE WE NOW? OVERVIEW:

By Ben Stevens

On Thursday, September 13, 2018, the Washington International Trade Association hosted the tenth, and final event, in the Signature NAFTA Series, titled “Where Are We Now?”. The featured panel discussed the prognosis of the NAFTA renegotiations providing the current status and prospects for the new agreement. The distinguished panelists included Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, Dr. Laura Dawson, Celeste Drake, and Professor Matt Gold. The panelists examined the challenges and uncertainties facing renegotiation efforts, while delving into the different political and economic factors influencing those with a seat at the negotiating table.

Starting the discussion was Matt Gold, current adjunct professor of law at Fordham University and former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for North America. Gold introduced the panel topic with a comprehensive background on the U.S trade policy agenda and how deviations from the status quo by the current administration have affected NAFTA’s renegotiation. He noted the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) impacted renegotiation efforts by eliminating some automatic updates that would have addressed between the three trading partners in the TPP agreement. Some areas included updates to digital commerce and telecommunications rules. He also highlighted particularly contentious elements of renegotiation, such as the sunset clause and the rule of origin requirements for atuos.

The first speaker was Arturo Sarukhan, a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and a distinguished visiting professor at the Annenberg School of Public Diplomacy at University of Southern California. Having served as the Mexican ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Sarukhan applied his knowledge and experience from the perspective of the Mexican government to the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations. He gave background on how the change in Mexican political leadership, through the July elections, had impacted negotiation process; highlighting a “strong desire of both the current and future leadership of Mexico to get a deal done”. Ambassador Sarukhan highlighted changes in the North American bilateral relations between the U.S and Canada as well as the U.S and Mexico. Attempting to illustrate the potential positive and negative implications of a new NAFTA, he noted that positive aspects IPR and e-commerce, while pointing out what he believed were negative aspects in the sunset clause and rules of origin requirements. Ambassador Sarukhan described a high level of uncertainty regarding the negotiations. He pointed out that “until congress submits a text to the president” there is a high level of speculation regarding potential changes to the trade agreement.

Second to speak was Dr. Lauren Dawson, Director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, explained the Canadian perspective on the NAFTA renegotiation efforts by discussing how Canadian politicians must weigh the political pressure to stand opposed to President Trump against the economic incentives for cooperation with the U.S for a “more liberalized trade environment”. Dr. Dawson discussed the political impetus behind current negotiations. She highlighted how it could beneficial, stating it was analogous with “nitroglycerin in a mine”, as it could “clear the path”. However, she also pointed out that if it was too much, it would be as if there was too much nitroglycerin to cause too big of an explosion that would “collapse the whole mine”. Like Ambassador Sarukhan, Dr. Dawson made sure to highlight the uncertainty in the renegotiations.

Celeste Drake, trade and Globalization Specialist for the AFLCIO, was the final panelist to round out the discussion. She focused on the way labor unions view NAFTA and current renegotiation efforts. Her analysis provided a unique perspective that had not highlighted previously by the other panelists. She emphasized elements of NAFTA labor interprets as detrimental to workers ability to form unions, particularly in Mexico where unionization has been dramatically curtailed, or realize the gains of trade relative to the company owners. Like the other panelists Drake highlighted the uncertainty around the renegotiation. However, she described this uncertainty as a positive for labor as, they see potential for their concerns with NAFTA to be addressed. She argued that sunset clauses are not necessarily bad; because almost all legislation, like the Defense Authorization Act, require mandatory reexamination.

The panel provided a deep-dive into the NAFTA re-negotiations. A diverse set of viewpoints were examined, as the panelists provided unique perspectives of different stakeholders.

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