With passage of the Chips and Science Act and the budget reconciliation bill, the U.S. will be spending hundreds of billions of dollars in the years to come to encourage investment in chip manufacturing and environmental technologies. The bills also provide billions more to fund scientific research and development, and to spur the innovation and development of other U.S. technologies. 

Panelists will discuss what this new spending means for the U.S. jobs, exports, and international trade policy, and how these bills position the U.S. relative to China and in relation to its allies and partners. 

Featured Speakers:

Edward Alden, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations and Ross Distinguished Visiting Professor, Western Washington University; Author of the article, “Free Trade Is Dead. Risky ‘Managed Trade’ Is Here”

Robert D. Atkinson, Ph.D., President, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation

Emily Kilcrease, Senior Fellow and Director, Energy, Economics and Security Program, Center for a New American Security

Christine McDaniel, Senior Research Fellow, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and Non-Resident Fellow at the Clayton Yeutter Institute of International Trade and Finance at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln

Speaker Biographies:

Edward Alden

Robert D. Atkinson

Robert D. Atkinson is the President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

As founder and president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), recognized as the world’s top think tank for science and technology policy, Robert D. Atkinson leads a prolific team of policy analysts and fellows that is successfully shaping the debate and setting the agenda on a host of critical issues at the intersection of technological innovation and public policy.

Emily Kilcrease

The post WITA Webinar: U.S. Industrial Policy, Subsidies, and Trade appeared first on WITA.

On Monday, January 31st, and Tuesday, February 1st, 2022, WITA hosted its fourth annual Washington International Trade Conference (WITC). This conference brought together leaders in international trade from across the U.S. and around the world to explore the trade landscape and look toward the future of trade.

 Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Moderator: Ambassador Kristen Silverberg, President & COO, Business Roundtable; former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union 

Aik Hoe Lim, Director, Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization

Kelly K. Milton, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Ambassador Gloria Abraham Peralta, Costa Rica’s Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization, Co-Chair, Trade and Environmental Sustainability Structured Discussions (TESSD), World Trade Organization

Moderator: Sarah Stewart, Executive Director, Silverado Policy Accelerator; former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Environment and Natural Resources

Angela Ellard, Deputy Director General, World Trade Organization

Moderator: Ambassador Rufus Yerxa, former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative; former Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization

Amy P. Celico, Principal Albright Stonebridge Group | Dentons Global Advisors; former Senior Director for China Affairs, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

Wendy Cutler, Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Samm Sacks, Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center & New America, Yale Law School

Moderator: Erin Ennis, Vice President, Global Public Policy, Dell Technologies

Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, Canadian Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Tomita Koji, Japanese Ambassador to the United States

Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, European Union Ambassador to the United States

Moderator: Ambassador Susan Schwab, Strategic Advisor, Mayer Brown LLP; former U.S. Trade Representative

Orit Frenkel, CEO, American Leadership Initiative

Ed Gresser, Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute (PPI)

Jeffrey Kucik, Associate Professor, School of Government and Public Policy at University of Arizona

Chad Thompson, Executive Director for Legal Affairs & Trade, General Motors

Moderator: Sarah Thorn, Senior Director of Global Government Affairs, Walmart

Jon Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy, National Retail Federation

Phil Levy, Chief Economist, Flexport

Penny Naas, President of International Public Affairs and Sustainability, UPS

Maria Zieba, Assistant Vice President of International Affairs, National Pork Producers Council

Moderator: Ana Swanson, Correspondent, New York Times

Ambassador Sarah Bianchi, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Moderator: Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner & President & CEO, Crowell & Moring LLP and C&M International; Former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

The post 2022 Washington International Trade Conference Recap appeared first on WITA.

On Thursday, May 27, WITA discussed how investments in America’s infrastructure supports U.S. trade, competitiveness and global supply chains.  

WITA Webinar Featuring:

Robbie Boone, Rebuild Rural Coalition, and Senior Vice President & General Counsel, Farm Credit Council

Brandy D. Christian, President and CEO of the Port of New Orleans, CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad

Kevin Dempsey, President and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute

John Neuffer, President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association

Moderator: Dr. Charles Boustany, Jr, Partner, Capitol Counsel, LLC

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES

Robbie Boone is Senior Vice President & General Counsel at the Farm Credit Council, the national trade association representing the institutions of the Farm Credit System before Congress, the Administration and other federal agencies. The Council also coordinates the activities of the Rebuild Rural Coalition on behalf of its 260+ national, state and local organization partners.

Robbie is responsible for managing the trade association’s legal affairs, including advising the FCC Board of Directors on legal matters. Robbie leads the Farm Credit Council’s efforts to achieve a regulatory environment favorable to Farm Credit’s mission to support rural communities and agriculture. In addition, Mr. Boone manages Farm Credit’s coordinating role with the more than 250 national, state and local partner organizations comprising the Rebuild Rural Coalition –– a rural infrastructure coalition highlighting the unique needs of rural communities, producers, businesses and families.

Before joining the Council in 2009, Robbie served on Capitol Hill for five and a half years –– in a legislative capacity for a Member of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. Prior to that, he was an Assistant Vice President/Analyst for U.S. Trust.

Robbie holds a J.D. and M.B.A. from the University of Miami (FL). He received his B.A. from Wake Forest University. He is admitted to practice in North Carolina, District of Columbia, and the U.S. Supreme Court.

Robbie, and his wife, Sarah, and their three children reside in Washington, D.C.

Dr. Charles Boustany, Jr. is a former Congressman (R-LA) and prominent heart surgeon, and now a partner with Capitol Counsel, LLC. During his 12 years in Congress, Dr. Boustany served on the influential House Committee on Ways and Means, where he was Chairman of the Subcommittees on Tax Policy, Oversight, and Human Resources. As a Ways and Means Committee member, Dr. Boustany established himself as an expert and leader on tax, trade, health care, and entitlement policy. Dr. Boustany is a leader in trade assistance and enforcement issues and has led seminars on the conduct of legislative oversight for members of parliament from emerging democracies. He has authored numerous opinion pieces on health care, energy, trade and foreign policy in Politico, The Hill, The Wall Street Journal, and in the peer-reviewed journal Asia Policy. For 14 years, Dr. Boustany had a private practice of medicine in the field of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery in Lafayette, Louisiana.

As a member of Congress, Boustany successfully led the effort to increase funding for ports and waterways. Legislative victories include co-authorship and passage of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) and the PROTECT Act, which strengthened enforcement of U.S. international trade laws. He passed several bills benefiting veterans that included securing the construction of two new veterans clinics in south Louisiana. Boustany was also a leader in the efforts to pass trade promotion authority and in the passage of several free trade agreements that included Panama, Columbia and South Korea. Boustany also helped lift the ban on crude oil exports and expanded liquefied natural gas exports. Other legislative successes include health care relief for small businesses and reforming IRS practices, and key legislation on health savings accounts, and international tax. Before his election to Congress, Boustany launched extensive quality improvement in open heart surgery programs in two community hospitals that led to national recognition for quality.

Brandy D. Christian is the President and CEO of the Port of New Orleans and the CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad, a shortline connecting railroad strategically aligned with the Port. The two public agencies have combined revenues of $100 million, nearly 500 employees, and more than $200 million in capital projects. In her Port role, Christian oversees all cargo, cruise, and industrial real estate operations. As the CEO of the Public Belt, she sets strategic direction and oversees all rail holdings.

Christian serves on the Green Marine Board of Directors, Railroad-Shipper Transportation Advisory Council, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Trade and Transportation Advisory Council, Louisiana Board of International Commerce, the World Trade Center of New Orleans Board of Directors, the New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau Board of Directors and on the Cruise Committee for the American Association of Port Authorities.

Before joining Port NOLA, Christian served 14 years with the Port of San Diego as vice president of strategy and business development.

Kevin Dempsey is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the American Iron and Steel Institute, representing the interests of American steel producers. He previously served as Senior Vice President of Public Policy and General Counsel to the Institute for the past 11 years during which AISI achieved key policy successes; including: implementation of Section 232 trade remedies to preserve the steel industry’s key role in national and economic security, the enactment of historic legislation to strengthen trade laws, successful infrastructure initiatives to benefit the steel industry and numerous measures that enhance steel manufacturing competitiveness.

Before joining AISI, Dempsey was a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf, a global law firm. Dempsey litigated numerous international trade cases on behalf of U.S. steel producers and other U.S. industries before the U.S. International Trade Commission, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. courts. He served as counsel to several U.S. steel producers in the successful Section 201 investigation on steel products.

Dempsey also previously served as counsel to Senator John C. Danforth (R-MO) and the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. While on the staff of the Senate Commerce Committee, he participated in the development of the acid rain cap-and-trade system established by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Later, while serving on Senator Danforth’s personal staff and again on the staff of the Senate Commerce Committee, he played a key role in the drafting of the implementing legislation for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the GATT Uruguay Round Trade Agreements.

Dempsey has, and continues to, work extensively on international trade negotiations given his considerable experience with U.S. and international law related to subsidies, trade remedies, market access, intellectual property rights, and product standards, as well as U.S. legislative procedures for authorizing and implementing trade agreements.

Dempsey received his Juris Doctor Degree from Harvard Law School and a Bachelor of Arts in History from Washington University in St. Louis.

John Neuffer is President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which has been the voice of the chip industry for over four decades. He has been at the nexus of technology, public policy, and trade for most of his career. Since joining SIA in 2015, John has led the association’s policy advocacy in Washington and capitals around the world to foster growth and innovation in semiconductor design, manufacturing, and research. John also serves as a member of the Board of Directors of the Semiconductor Research Corporation, the world’s leading non-profit industry-government-academia microelectronics research consortium.

Prior to joining SIA, John served as Senior Vice President for Global Policy at the Information Technology Industry Council, where he led a global team to expand market access opportunities for member companies around the world. He directed all global government relations in trade, cybersecurity, standards, regulatory, Internet governance, and privacy.

Previously, John served for over seven years at the Office of United States Trade Representative (USTR) in Washington, DC: two years as Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Affairs, preceded by over five years as Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan.

Prior to his tenure with USTR, John was a Senior Research Fellow and Political Analyst with the Mitsui Kaijyo Research Institute in Tokyo for nine years. As a leading commentator on Japanese politics and policy at the institute, he published a widely read newsletter and wrote regular commentary for the Asian Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com and Newsweek Japan. All told, John lived in Japan 11 years. He is a native of Montana and Washington State.

Kenneth Levinson is the Executive Director of the Washington International Trade Association (WITA). WITA is Washington’s largest non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to providing a neutral forum in the U.S. capital for the open and robust discussion of international trade policy and economic issues. WITA has over 4,000 members, and more than 170 corporate sponsors and group memberships.

Previously, Ken served as Senior Director for Global Government Affairs for AstraZeneca. Prior to joining AstraZeneca, Ken served as Senior Vice President and COO at the Washington, DC consulting firm of Fontheim International. Ken started his career on the staff of U.S. Senator John D. (Jay) Rockefeller IV, where he served as the Senator’s chief advisor for international trade, tax, foreign policy, and national security.

Ken received a Master’s degree in European History from New York University after doing his undergraduate work at the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst. Ken also spent a year studying at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Ken and his wife, the Reverend Donna Marsh, live in Bethesda, MD, with their two daughters.

The post WITA Webinar: Infrastructure, Trade and American Competitiveness appeared first on WITA.

On November 12th WITA looked at what the U.S. Presidential election might mean for American trade policy in the years to come, with a bipartisan panel of experts who served in senior roles in Congress and the Administration. Welcome and Opening Remarks 

PROGRAM AGENDA

Welcome and Opening Remarks

• Kenneth I. Levinson, Executive Director, Washington International Trade Association

Remarks and Discussion

• Nasim Fussell, Partner, Holland & Knight; and former Chief International Trade Counsel, Senate Finance Committee
• Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner, Crowell & Moring LLP and President & CEO, C&M International; and former Deputy USTR
• Brian Pomper, Partner, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP; and former Chief International Trade Counsel, Senate Finance Committee
• Stephen P. Vaughn, Partner, King & Spalding; and former USTR General Counsel, and Acting USTR
• Moderator, Stephanie Lester, Senior Director, Government Affairs, Gap Inc.

Followed by:

• Q & A with Audience – Webinar attendees are encouraged to use the Q&A function on the Zoom app to submit their questions in real time.

Event Close

The post WITA Post-Election Analysis with The Trade Insiders appeared first on WITA.

Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project

By: Madelyn Cunningham

On February 4th, 2020, WITA hosted Rich Thau as a keynote speaker, as he gave his presentation, “Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project.” Kimberly Ellis, WITA Board member and Principal of the Monument Policy Group, introduced Thau with his business title, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, and his other project, the Swing Voter Project. By grouping swing voters into two categories: Obama-Trump voters and Romney-Clinton voters, Thau has set out to predict the outcome of swing voting counties in the Upper Midwest.

Thau began by discussing his methodology of picking locations to study, through a color-coded map released by CNBC. The map depicted in dark red the highest rates of swing voting in the 2016 elections from Obama to Trump. Each dark red county was cross-examined by population, and selected if not too sparsely populated.

But why take on this project? According to Thau, there were three reasons. Firstly, in 2016, inconsistent and purely quantitative pollsters did not account for the entire opinion of those they were polling. Thau highlighted the need to not only ask what their opinion was, but also why, prompting his qualitative research design.

Secondly, Thau argued that no one should be shocked by the 2020 election outcome as they were in 2016, especially with the amount of contention in the recent political climate. Lastly, the project should be able to uncover key insights into swing voting habits.

Thau then moved on into his key findings thus far. He found that from the areas he polled, the swing voters were low information voters, receiving most of their news and political information from local broadcastings limited to sports, weather, crime, and traffic, local websites, facebook, national morning TV shows, and “news aggregators” accessible from their device. 

To build on the fact that these are low information voters, Thau asked participants to identify the Democratic candidates for the upcoming 2020 election. He first asked them how confident they were in identifying the Democratic candidates from official photos on a 1 to 10 scale.

In August, Bernie Sanders was the first most identified, at 8.3, followed by Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Beto O’Rourke. Pete Buttigieg was less than 2 and has not shifted since the scale was generated in August. For comparison, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, though not a presidential candidate for 2020, was ranked by identification rate in 4th place after Elizabeth Warren. 

In October, Thau was interviewed by Michael Smerconish about the likelihood that Obama-Trump voters would vote for Trump again in the fall. He discussed a hypothetical match-up between Obama and Trump. In each focus group, roughly 2/3rds would choose President Trump. Even though Trump’s campaign promise to bring back manufacturing jobs in the area had not been followed through, these voters were still with the president because of his “America First” agenda.

Compared to the Obama-Trump voters, swing voters that voted Romney then Clinton responded they would vote for Obama in an Obama-Trump match-up.

Thau also found that there was not much “nostalgia” for the Obama-Biden administration among the swing voters. Even participants from Joe Biden’s hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania, felt no connection to him as a candidate, saying that he was not truly from there to begin with. 

Thau’s third key finding tied into how the state of the economy directly relates to the likelihood of Trump’s reelection, as many voted for him because of his background in business. If the economy turns, support for him would dwindle as he is weak in key issues important to the swing voter demographic. 

In suburban Minneapolis, participants pointed out that he had made “zero effort” to fix the healthcare system. If a democratic candidate were to run on the platform of better, affordable healthcare, this would garner support from swing voters. Trump’s behavior and presence was also analyzed, and while some were supportive, many participants were embarrassed when seeing him on their TV or device. The main dissidents for Trump’s behavior being the Romney-Clinton voters.

As mentioned in his CNN interview with Michael Smerconish, while he did not follow through on the promise to restore manufacturing jobs, his “America First” agenda in foreign policy has won over the swing voters in the Midwest. Relating to foreign affairs, while Trump has been strong with trade policy, the hot button issue for these voters was immigration. While not interchangeable, swing voters view immigration and trade as two issues on “the same ‘America First’ coin.”  

The swing voters do not view trade as a key voting issue, they know more about negotiations with China than they do about the USMCA. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, when asked about whether they knew anyone who personally benefited or was harmed from Trump’s trade policy, there was no response from the focus group.

To encapsulate the swing voters’ knowledge on trade, Thau stated that one response summarized the entire demographic, “we have used so much out of America, and imposing those tariffs will eventually move those jobs back here even though it will cost us more.” 

To further explain the swing voter’s engagement with trade policy, Thau explained that about 3/4ths believe that America’s efforts to secure a fair trade deal with China will be worth the higher prices on imports from other countries. However there is a limit to their tariff support, as if the trade war with China was prolonged and prices were significantly raised, Trump would lose support. All of the swing voters believed that only American Swing Voters beared the cost for tariffs.

Shown a clip of Senator Klobuchar on trade, her approval rating from the Wilkes-Barre focus group increased drastically as soon as she discussed her support for “Made in America” goods. There is a growing mistrust of corporations, but where Senator Warren’s statements about trade are supported by focus groups, their support for her falls when discussing how she will pay for her programs like “Medicare for All” by taking from big corporations. The participants, while in support of the issue, respond that to expect the top income bracket and big corporations to pay for this plan is unachievable.

Moving on to bonus issues, swing voters believe that the weather is getting “weirder” when asked about environmental policy. There is an awareness of climate change, and they are critical of regulatory rollbacks affecting the environment. When asked about the environmental rollbacks, participants in Wilkes-Barre said that they affected the air and water quality and ultimately the health of the community, which could not afford basic healthcare in most cases. There was an overall sense of fear and worry about the state of the environment, and it was more of a key voting issue than healthcare policy.

Participants were also asked to fill in the blank: “Make America _________ Again.” Overwhelmingly, they responded to make America “America” again and “fair.” But there was no consensus as to what they specifically wanted America to be, and Thau argued that this was one of the key problems for Democrats, as while united against Trump, there is no common platform or idea of what they think America should be. 

Thau discussed his findings relating to the impeachment trial of President Trump. The swing voters viewed the trial was just a distraction and demonstration that the Democratic party leaders are out of touch with “regular” Americans. They blame impeachment for the lack of policy and coverage on issues that matter to them.

To conclude his presentation, Thau summarized his key arguments through the various swing voter trends found in his project thus far. He stated that there needs to be attention paid to those who are low information voters, Trump’s “America First” sentiment maintained his support among the demographic, the economy is a determining factor in his reelection, and there was no consensus on what America should be going forward.

To get updates on the findings from Rich Thau’s project, sign up for his newsletter on SwingVoterProject.com.

Kimberly Ellis of the Monument Policy Group joined Rich Thau onstage for a debrief on his presentation. She first asked for Thau’s thoughts on Mike Bloomberg’s prospects in the upcoming race. Thau responded with the fact that in many of the counties he visited, Bloomberg was, for the most part, an unfamiliar candidate.

One of the respondents in Wilkes-Barre pointed out that there was no grass-roots support for Bloomberg, that instead Bloomberg was just a billionaire spending money on his campaign. In contrast, Trump ran on the platform that his campaign was supported from the bottom up, and not just from large personal donations.

In regard to trade policy, Ellis went on to ask whether or not the swing voters supported Trump’s trade policy. Thau stated that they were in absolute support, and that it was not necessarily his specific agreements and policy work, but his messaging of “being on the case”. There is no awareness of the economic effects of his deals, but they are more focused on progress overall.

Featuring:

Rich Thau, President & Co-Founder, Engagious

Kimberly Ellis, Principal, Monument Policy Group

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Stephen Lamar, Executive Vice President, American Apparel & Footwear Association

Tim Bell, Additive Manufacturing Business Manager, Siemens Digital Factory Division

Andy Brown, Executive Director of Supply Chain Transformation, Ernst & Young

Ralph Carter, Vice President of International Regulatory Affairs, FedEx Express

Melissa Nelson, Vice President and General Counsel, SanMar Corporation

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: The Future of Trade — a NextGenTrade® Discussion of Technology, Trade Facilitation & Global Value Chains appeared first on WITA.

Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable

By: James Dail

On January 29^th, 2019 WITA hosted a panel discussion entitled “Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable” as a part of the inaugural Washington International Trade Conference. In the past, WITA events have featured reporters moderating panels or asking speakers pertinent questions. This event was notable for turning the tables and allowing the audience to ask member of the press about their thoughts on trade issues. The reporters featured in the roundtable discussion were Gina Chon, a Washington Columnist at Reuters Breakingviews, Shawn Donnan, a Senior Writer at Bloomberg, and David Lynch, a Global Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post. Dorothy Dwoskin, the Principal of d2Strategies LLC, was the event’s moderator.

Dorothy Dwoskin opened the roundtable by asking the panelists how the current administration has altered their reporting of trade issues. Shawn Donnan respond to the query first, noting that trade is now an issue at the forefront of public discussion, whereas it had previously been an area that had a slower pace of news and lacked prominent exposure to the public. He stated that much of this shift can be attributed to this administration’s challenge of the long-standing, fundamental assumptions around trade policy. Shawn concluded his thoughts by observing that the diversity of viewpoints within this administration have made reporters unsure if lower-level officials are speaking for the administration or pushing their own agendas.

Gina Chon joined the discussion by echoing this thought, saying that opposing factions within the administration, as well as the President’s tendency to change his opinion based on current circumstance, has made reporting difficult. From there, she altered the discussion by observing that a new aspect of her job is that foreign officials are asking reporters for advice on how to deal with the current administration.

David Lynch answered Dorothy’s question with three main points. He said that the changes fundamentally come down to access, pace, and priority. Access to the USTR has greatly diminished in this administration, due to a fundamental stylistic difference between Robert Lighthizer and previous agency heads. While this change might be good for the USTR, it has made it difficult for reporters to foresee any upcoming policy changes before they actually occur. This lack of access creates chaos in the media when it is coupled with the blitzkrieg-like pace of the administration’s changes in trade policy. Lynch concluded by stating that this issue has been prioritized by the administration, which is attributable to the fact that trade has been one of the few issues that President has maintained a constant position on over the course of several decades.

Mrs. Dwoskin then moved on to her second question, asking how Congress has affected trade policy during this administration. Shawn Donnan answered this by saying that he is curious about two things regarding Congress. The first being if Congress will assert itself differently now that Democrats have control of the House. The second being how the changing grassroots politics of trade will shape Congress’ attitude towards trade issues leading up to the 2020 elections. For though renegotiating trade deals has been one of the signature issues of this administration, polls indicate that trade is more popular than at any time since the 2016 election cycle. Mr. Lynch continued Shawn’s line of thought, saying that he is interested to see if and how a bipartisan consensus towards China develops. If it does, then the President could find himself attacked for being too soft on China. In 2016, he set a high bar for success by using the trade deficit as a metric, and on this front,  he has completely failed to deliver. The trade deficit is higher today than when he first took office.

Gina Chon was the next to speak, saying that whenever she speaks with members of Congress, she is always struck by their hesitancy to confront the President on trade, even when tariffs are hurting businesses in their districts. She also noted that there are anti-trade sentiments within the Democratic Party, citing supporters of Bernie Sanders who were vocally opposed to the TPP at the 2016 DNC. She is curious to note how this will affect trade policy and the politics behind it, both at present and in 2020.

Dorothy Dwoskin shifted the discussion to Gina’s final point by asking about the role of the media in 2020. Is there anything the press can do to correct any public misperception of trade issues? Mr. Lynch largely thought no. He stated that while the Washington Post frequently runs stories about how tariffs are affecting ordinary Americans, and that those stories do quite well, he does not think he is changing any minds. The Post’s audience was largely anti-tariff to begin with.

Mrs. Chon felt that the only way for public perception to dramatically change on trade is for the average voter to experience pain because of protectionist trade policies. While tariffs are costing many firms, they can currently absorb those costs and are not in immediate danger of bankruptcy.

Shawn diverged from Gina’s view that drastic pain, such as factory closings, are needed for a change in pubic perception. He believes the general public views trade deficits in the same lens as the President, as a statement of profit and loss. Policy is complex. Relying on explaining it effectively to the public will always be a losing battle. Because of this, he wonders if tariffs might be necessary every few decades to remind the public that it is a bad policy. However, he is relieved to notice that both on Twitter and in his day to day interactions, the public seems to be changing its mind. David Lynch added to Gina and Shawn’s thoughts by saying that, while the backlash to tariffs has clearly begun, it will change further with the economic landscape. While it might be easy for firms to absorb costs now, many will begin to close if the US economy slides into a recession.

Dorothy’s next question pivoted the discussion to the China negotiations. She noted that this administration keeps things close to its chest, and she asked the reporters what signals they look for to see if any changes are about to occur. David responded by echoing that the administration had made things more difficult than usual. He went on to say that in the best-case scenario, an announcement comes from the USTR saying that things are moving along wonderfully and that the two nations are close to a deal. In the worst-case, an announcement comes saying that the two parties are still at an impasse. However, he is doubtful that any announcement will occur in the near future.

Mr. Donnan added to this by shifting to the particulars of what a potential deal might look like. He believes that the type of deal America receives is dependent on how the markets are performing. China is facing a slowdown, and ideally, they will want to be able to make a deal that is presentable to the public and can generate growth. Another factor that needs to be considered is that Trump is coming off of a shutdown defeat, and he does not want to look weak. However, he agrees with Mr. Lynch in that a deal is likely still far off. The announcements so far indicate that the negotiations are still at their early stages, as the two parties do not yet have a common document in place where they are discussing details.

Mrs. Chon stated that another aspect that should be considered is that the Chinses delegation will most likely meet with the President at some point, and she is curious to know how the President’s positions are different from the USTR’s. In addition, she echoed Mr. Donnan’s sentiments about China’s need to present this to their public as a win.

In her next question, Mrs. Dwoskin further pursued this area of discussion, asking what the differences are in how the US and China are framing the negotiations. Mr. Lynch stated that the Chinese get more proactive with their public relations with every passing year, but they are not nearly as aggressive in this area as a Western media institution. He then said that the lack of an organized policy process coming out of the Trump administration as made it easy for the US media pundits to spin whatever message out of the negotiations that they like and present what they think the administration’s position ought to be. Gina Chon added to this by saying that a crucial portion of the media narrative in both countries is the aftermath of the FBI’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO, and that it is fictional to suggest that it will not affect the trade negotiations in any way.

Dorothy moved the discussion to the 232 tariffs, asking how they specifically will play into the negotiations and affect the other items on the administration’s agenda. Shawn Donnan answered first, stating that he believes the steel and aluminum tariffs could negatively affect the trilateral relationship of the US, EU, and Japan at the WTO if the US comes out of these negotiations with the tariffs in place in any form. The reason this could be damaging is because Trump promised Abe on multiple occasions that the tariffs would be removed. Furthermore, Donnan believes that the tariffs negatively affecting the auto industry will likely factor into the negotiations in some form. General Motors is laying off thousands of workers throughout February, and while the layoffs are not directly attributable to the tariffs, the higher cost they bring is certainly not helping the situation. Given that these layoffs are occurring in Midwestern swing states, the President will likely want to produce a deal that is beneficial to the automobile industry and betters his political situation.

Following these comments from Mr. Donnan, the panel moved on to question and answer. The first question asked pertained to how Republicans and Democrats will each frame the narrative of the trade negotiations leading up to the 2020 election cycle. David Lynch answered this by saying that the President will argue that he has accomplished what he promised in 2016 by ending and altering existing US trade deals. The Democrats will respond to this narrative by arguing that the President set the bar high for himself and that he did not accomplish what he promised. They will point to the President’s use of the trade deficit as a metric for how the country is performing on trade and how it has grown during his tenure.

Shawn Donnan posed his own question to the audience, asking if America’s depleted manufacturing communities are better off than when the President took office. The Democrats are going to ask the voters in these communities if the President has delivered on his promises. However, he also argued that trade will become a subsidiary issue by 2020, noting that other events and policy ideas are featured more prominently on the front page.

Gina Chon believes that the rhetoric in 2020 will be predicated on the results of the 2018 midterms. She noted that many traditionally blue districts that voted for Trump in 2016 returned to the Democrats in 2018. She stated that a key driver of this shift has been the blowback to the President’s tariff policies in states such as Michigan, which were crucial to his original victory.

The second question asked was addressed to Mr. Donnan, asking about why he thought trade issues will be out of the headlines by 2020. Shawn responded by expanding upon his views, stating that while the debate over trade might not vanish, it now seems to have been tabled in political debate. The media is consumed by the Russian investigation, and the barrage of leaks coming out of the White House. Simultaneously, policy debate has shifted towards proposals from the Democrats such as Medicare for all and the Green New Deal.

The concluding question was addressed to the panel broadly, asking the reporters if they believe that Trump will follow through with his threat to completely destroy NAFTA. The three panelists all gave variations of the same answer. They all believed that it will most likely not occur, but the possibility cannot be ruled out entirely. If this was to occur, it would most probably be used as political leverage if the President did not have a favorable policy outcome on another issue.

Featuring:

Dorothy Dwoskin, Principal, d2 Strategies LLC

Gina Chon, Washington Columnist, Reuters Breakingviews

Shawn Donnan, Senior Writer, Bloomberg News

David Lynch, Global Economics Correspondent, The Washington Post

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: Meet the Trade Press, Reporters Roundtable appeared first on WITA.

Featuring:

Ambassador Darci Vetter, Former Chief Agricultural Negotiator, USTR; Vice Chair of Agriculture, Food and Trade, Edelman

David Dollar, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center

Bonnie Glaser, Senior Advisor for Asia and Director, China Power Project, CSIS

David Goldman, Principal, Asia Times

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC: In a Trade War with China, What Does Victory Look Like? appeared first on WITA.

In collaboration with the Organization of International Investment, WITA hosted the biggest annual event on the TPP trade calendar, recognizing the role of the 50 U.S. States in Investment, Job Creation and Global Trade.

The post WITA TPP Series: TPP in the States appeared first on WITA.