On Thursday, April 7, WITA held a webinar discussing the war in Ukraine and its impact on global food security. 

Featured Speakers:

Beth Bechdol, Deputy Director-General, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Joseph W. Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute

Jason Hafemeister, Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs (TFAA), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Caitlin Welsh, Director, Global Food Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES

Beth Bechdol is Deputy Director-General at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). In this role, she continues her service to food and agriculture – now on a global scale. Ms Bechdol is responsible for FAO’s Partnership and Outreach work, including Partnerships and UN Collaboration, Resource Mobilization and Private Sector Partnerships, South-South and Triangular Cooperation. She also leads programmes in the area of Plant Production and Protection and oversees FAO’s main technical advisory committee on agriculture, the Committee on Agriculture (COAG) as well as the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) Secretariat. 

Before joining FAO, Ms Bechdol was President and CEO of AgriNovus Indiana, the Midwestern state’s economic development initiative focused on advancing the agbioscience sector and developing 21st century talent. Prior to her leadership of AgriNovus, Ms Bechdol was Director of agribusiness strategies at Indianapolis-based law firm Ice Miller LLP where she helped build the firm’s dedicated legal practice to food and agribusiness clients. She also was the former Deputy Director of the Indiana State Department of Agriculture. 

Ms Bechdol’s dedication to public service in agriculture and her extensive trade and farm policy experience started in Washington, D.C. where she served in key roles as Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and as Economist on the Senate Agriculture Committee. 

She began her career in the Washington office of Informa Economics. As the first female Vice President in the firm, she assisted clients in understanding critical food and agriculture issues such as global trade negotiations, federal farm policy, technology advancements, farm structure, risk management tools, among other major trends. She also provided market information expertise to several international development projects in Egypt, the Republic of North Macedonia and Ukraine. 

Ms Bechdol excels at building unconventional alliances and connecting people. She has had significant roles on boards and commissions, including the National FFA Board of Trustees, the Purdue Research Foundation and the Farm Foundation Round Table. 

Ms Bechdol was raised on a multi-generation family grain farm in rural Indiana. She received her bachelor’s degree from Georgetown University in international law and international affairs, and completed her master’s degree at Purdue University in agricultural economics.

Joseph W. Glauber is a Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, DC where his areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance and trade. Prior to joining IFPRI, Glauber spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections, oversaw climate, energy and regulatory issues, and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation.

From 2007-2009, Glauber was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as chief agricultural negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the so-called Blair House agreements leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations. He is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy and U.S. farm policy.

Dr. Glauber received his Ph.D. in agricultural economics from the University of Wisconsin in 1984 and holds an AB in anthropology from the University of Chicago. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

Jason Hafemeister is the Acting Deputy Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign AgriculturalAffairs and the Trade Counsel to the Secretary at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In this role, he advises the Secretary and the Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs on agricultural trade policy. He has been involved in agricultural farm and trade policy for over 30 years, including almost 25 at USDA and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Jason grew up on California’s scenic central coast. He received a bachelor’s degree from the University of California at Berkeley, a master’s degree from the University of California at San Diego, and a law degree from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. He is married with two children. Before that, he used to enjoy reading and sport.

Caitlin Welsh is the director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she provides insights and policy solutions to global and U.S. food security challenges. She brings over a decade of U.S. government experience to this role. She served most recently in the National Security Council and National Economic Council as director of global economic engagement, where she coordinated U.S. policy in the G7 and G20. Prior to the White House, Ms. Welsh spent over seven years in the Department of State’s Office of Global Food Security, including as acting director, offering guidance to the secretary of state on global food security and its relationship to climate change, urbanization, and conflict. Ms. Welsh served as a presidential management fellow at the U.S. African Development Foundation and as a Peace Corps volunteer in Morocco. She has testified before Congress on food security and climate change, and her analysis has been featured in The Economist, Foreign Policy, BBC, and other outlets. Ms. Welsh received her BA from the University of Virginia and MPA from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

The post The War in Ukraine and Global Food Security appeared first on WITA.

On Thursday, May 27, WITA discussed how investments in America’s infrastructure supports U.S. trade, competitiveness and global supply chains.  

WITA Webinar Featuring:

Robbie Boone, Rebuild Rural Coalition, and Senior Vice President & General Counsel, Farm Credit Council

Brandy D. Christian, President and CEO of the Port of New Orleans, CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad

Kevin Dempsey, President and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute

John Neuffer, President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association

Moderator: Dr. Charles Boustany, Jr, Partner, Capitol Counsel, LLC

SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES

Robbie Boone is Senior Vice President & General Counsel at the Farm Credit Council, the national trade association representing the institutions of the Farm Credit System before Congress, the Administration and other federal agencies. The Council also coordinates the activities of the Rebuild Rural Coalition on behalf of its 260+ national, state and local organization partners.

Robbie is responsible for managing the trade association’s legal affairs, including advising the FCC Board of Directors on legal matters. Robbie leads the Farm Credit Council’s efforts to achieve a regulatory environment favorable to Farm Credit’s mission to support rural communities and agriculture. In addition, Mr. Boone manages Farm Credit’s coordinating role with the more than 250 national, state and local partner organizations comprising the Rebuild Rural Coalition –– a rural infrastructure coalition highlighting the unique needs of rural communities, producers, businesses and families.

Before joining the Council in 2009, Robbie served on Capitol Hill for five and a half years –– in a legislative capacity for a Member of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. Prior to that, he was an Assistant Vice President/Analyst for U.S. Trust.

Robbie holds a J.D. and M.B.A. from the University of Miami (FL). He received his B.A. from Wake Forest University. He is admitted to practice in North Carolina, District of Columbia, and the U.S. Supreme Court.

Robbie, and his wife, Sarah, and their three children reside in Washington, D.C.

Dr. Charles Boustany, Jr. is a former Congressman (R-LA) and prominent heart surgeon, and now a partner with Capitol Counsel, LLC. During his 12 years in Congress, Dr. Boustany served on the influential House Committee on Ways and Means, where he was Chairman of the Subcommittees on Tax Policy, Oversight, and Human Resources. As a Ways and Means Committee member, Dr. Boustany established himself as an expert and leader on tax, trade, health care, and entitlement policy. Dr. Boustany is a leader in trade assistance and enforcement issues and has led seminars on the conduct of legislative oversight for members of parliament from emerging democracies. He has authored numerous opinion pieces on health care, energy, trade and foreign policy in Politico, The Hill, The Wall Street Journal, and in the peer-reviewed journal Asia Policy. For 14 years, Dr. Boustany had a private practice of medicine in the field of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery in Lafayette, Louisiana.

As a member of Congress, Boustany successfully led the effort to increase funding for ports and waterways. Legislative victories include co-authorship and passage of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) and the PROTECT Act, which strengthened enforcement of U.S. international trade laws. He passed several bills benefiting veterans that included securing the construction of two new veterans clinics in south Louisiana. Boustany was also a leader in the efforts to pass trade promotion authority and in the passage of several free trade agreements that included Panama, Columbia and South Korea. Boustany also helped lift the ban on crude oil exports and expanded liquefied natural gas exports. Other legislative successes include health care relief for small businesses and reforming IRS practices, and key legislation on health savings accounts, and international tax. Before his election to Congress, Boustany launched extensive quality improvement in open heart surgery programs in two community hospitals that led to national recognition for quality.

Brandy D. Christian is the President and CEO of the Port of New Orleans and the CEO of the New Orleans Public Belt Railroad, a shortline connecting railroad strategically aligned with the Port. The two public agencies have combined revenues of $100 million, nearly 500 employees, and more than $200 million in capital projects. In her Port role, Christian oversees all cargo, cruise, and industrial real estate operations. As the CEO of the Public Belt, she sets strategic direction and oversees all rail holdings.

Christian serves on the Green Marine Board of Directors, Railroad-Shipper Transportation Advisory Council, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Trade and Transportation Advisory Council, Louisiana Board of International Commerce, the World Trade Center of New Orleans Board of Directors, the New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau Board of Directors and on the Cruise Committee for the American Association of Port Authorities.

Before joining Port NOLA, Christian served 14 years with the Port of San Diego as vice president of strategy and business development.

Kevin Dempsey is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the American Iron and Steel Institute, representing the interests of American steel producers. He previously served as Senior Vice President of Public Policy and General Counsel to the Institute for the past 11 years during which AISI achieved key policy successes; including: implementation of Section 232 trade remedies to preserve the steel industry’s key role in national and economic security, the enactment of historic legislation to strengthen trade laws, successful infrastructure initiatives to benefit the steel industry and numerous measures that enhance steel manufacturing competitiveness.

Before joining AISI, Dempsey was a partner at Dewey & LeBoeuf, a global law firm. Dempsey litigated numerous international trade cases on behalf of U.S. steel producers and other U.S. industries before the U.S. International Trade Commission, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. courts. He served as counsel to several U.S. steel producers in the successful Section 201 investigation on steel products.

Dempsey also previously served as counsel to Senator John C. Danforth (R-MO) and the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. While on the staff of the Senate Commerce Committee, he participated in the development of the acid rain cap-and-trade system established by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Later, while serving on Senator Danforth’s personal staff and again on the staff of the Senate Commerce Committee, he played a key role in the drafting of the implementing legislation for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the GATT Uruguay Round Trade Agreements.

Dempsey has, and continues to, work extensively on international trade negotiations given his considerable experience with U.S. and international law related to subsidies, trade remedies, market access, intellectual property rights, and product standards, as well as U.S. legislative procedures for authorizing and implementing trade agreements.

Dempsey received his Juris Doctor Degree from Harvard Law School and a Bachelor of Arts in History from Washington University in St. Louis.

John Neuffer is President and CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which has been the voice of the chip industry for over four decades. He has been at the nexus of technology, public policy, and trade for most of his career. Since joining SIA in 2015, John has led the association’s policy advocacy in Washington and capitals around the world to foster growth and innovation in semiconductor design, manufacturing, and research. John also serves as a member of the Board of Directors of the Semiconductor Research Corporation, the world’s leading non-profit industry-government-academia microelectronics research consortium.

Prior to joining SIA, John served as Senior Vice President for Global Policy at the Information Technology Industry Council, where he led a global team to expand market access opportunities for member companies around the world. He directed all global government relations in trade, cybersecurity, standards, regulatory, Internet governance, and privacy.

Previously, John served for over seven years at the Office of United States Trade Representative (USTR) in Washington, DC: two years as Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Affairs, preceded by over five years as Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan.

Prior to his tenure with USTR, John was a Senior Research Fellow and Political Analyst with the Mitsui Kaijyo Research Institute in Tokyo for nine years. As a leading commentator on Japanese politics and policy at the institute, he published a widely read newsletter and wrote regular commentary for the Asian Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com and Newsweek Japan. All told, John lived in Japan 11 years. He is a native of Montana and Washington State.

Kenneth Levinson is the Executive Director of the Washington International Trade Association (WITA). WITA is Washington’s largest non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to providing a neutral forum in the U.S. capital for the open and robust discussion of international trade policy and economic issues. WITA has over 4,000 members, and more than 170 corporate sponsors and group memberships.

Previously, Ken served as Senior Director for Global Government Affairs for AstraZeneca. Prior to joining AstraZeneca, Ken served as Senior Vice President and COO at the Washington, DC consulting firm of Fontheim International. Ken started his career on the staff of U.S. Senator John D. (Jay) Rockefeller IV, where he served as the Senator’s chief advisor for international trade, tax, foreign policy, and national security.

Ken received a Master’s degree in European History from New York University after doing his undergraduate work at the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst. Ken also spent a year studying at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Ken and his wife, the Reverend Donna Marsh, live in Bethesda, MD, with their two daughters.

The post WITA Webinar: Infrastructure, Trade and American Competitiveness appeared first on WITA.

On April 20, 2021, WITA discussed the efforts to increase trade in environmental goods, technologies and services through bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements.

PROGRAM AGENDA 

Welcome: 4:00 PM (US/Eastern)

• Kenneth Levinson, Executive Director, WITA

Remarks and Panelist Discussion: 4:05 PM

• Sarah Thorn, Senior Director, Global Government Affairs, Walmart
• Mark Linscott, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council/Senior Advisor, The Asia Group
• Ambassador Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand Deputy Secretary Trade and Economic, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
• Moderator: Maureen Hinman, Co-Founder and Chairman, Silverado Policy Accelerator

Followed by:

• Q & A with Audience – Webinar attendees are encouraged to use the Q&A function on the Zoom app to submit their questions in real time.

OVERVIEW

On Tuesday, Silverado’s co-founder and executive chairman Maureen Hinman joined the Washington International Trade Association (WITA) for its virtual event “Trading For Good,” a panel discussion exploring efforts to increase trade in environmental goods, services, and technologies through bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements. The event marked the second installment of WITA’s Trade and the Environment Series, a multipart event series co-sponsored by Silverado Policy Accelerator examining issues at the intersection of international trade and the environment.

Hinman moderated a wide-ranging discussion between three esteemed trade experts: Mark Linscott, the former assistant U.S. Trade Representative for South and Central Asian Affairs and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Sarah Thorn, senior director of global government affairs for Walmart; and Ambassador Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand’s deputy secretary for trade and economics at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The event attracted a broad audience, including current and former government officials, academics, industry representatives, foreign envoys, and non-governmental stakeholders.

The panelists focused in particular on potential paths toward a new agreement to expand market access for environmental goods following the collapse of plurilateral negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2016.

Ambassador Vitalis argued that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which accounts for 60 percent of total global GDP, can play a vital role in laying the groundwork for a future agreement by building off the 2011 APEC 54 list. Vitalis said that New Zealand, APEC’s host nation this year, is hoping to begin building broad support for an expanded list of environmental goods, an issue that proved a fatal sticking point in the WTO negotiations.

“Given that APEC is both consensus-based and voluntary, we think that it’s an opportunity to develop a longer and more ambitious list, and then we hope that APEC economies will want to take that to Geneva as a contribution to the process there, and also for [other nations] to think of it as a reference point,” he said. “In the APEC context, it’s very much a ‘define-by-doing’ [mentality] … We’ve very conscious of how long it takes to negotiate [a list], so we’re very anxious to avoid a protracted process.”

Linscott raised the possibility that future negotiations could move forward without China at the table — an option which was seen among trade experts as unlikely in the past, but which has gained some traction following the collapse of the 2016 negotiations, largely as a result of China actions.

“The question is, should China be at the table?” said Linscott. “Certainly there’s a free-rider problem if China is out, but given [past] experience, with China in, do we ever get to an agreement?”

Linscott also argued that an interim agreement on environmental goods could potentially provide a stepping-stone toward a broader agreement — an option that Hinman proposed in a recent op-ed for WITA — but noted that such an approach could run afoul of WTO principles.

“I think [an interim agreement] prompts a necessary discussion in the tariff world about the implications of [the most favored nation principle],” he said. “There’s this knee-jerk reaction that we have to protect that principle, but when there are concerns about free-riders — and one in particular — it should prompt healthy debate on the approach going forward.”

On the business side, Thorn presented Walmart’s case for a new environmental goods agreement, arguing that companies like Walmart would benefit from a trade agreement that lowered the costs of the green technologies that large companies need to meet their own environmental goals. Thorn also argued that there is broad-based support for a new agreement in the business community, noting that companies like Walmart have recognized that expanding access to green goods and services is not only the ethical path forward, but is also good for business.

“For us, this is about supply chain resilience and supply chain sustainability,” said Thorn. “We can’t just exhaust people and planet. We have to be thinking about how we’re going to renew if we’re going to be around in another, twenty, fifty, one hundred years.”

All participants said they were encouraged by U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai’s recent comments on trade and the environment, in which she made a strong case for using trade policy to advance climate objectives but stopped short of delineating specific trade measures the United States supports.

“Traditionally, in order to get things done on trade and the environment, we’ve needed U.S. leadership,” said Ambassador Vitalis. “It’s all well and good for the keen, goody-two-shoes countries like [New Zealand] to say, ‘We need to get something done on trade and the environment’ … but we really do need U.S. leadership, U.S. engagement, and the U.S. leaning in to really drive this agenda forward.”

Linscott said he is optimistic that the Biden administration will push for renewed environmental goods negotiations.

“During the Obama administration, [officials] were following very closely the negotiations on environmental goods, and they were big cheerleaders for efforts to get a trade agreement that would have some benefits for the diffusion of environmental technologies,” he said. “Some of those people are still around and are working for [United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate] John Kerry, so I can imagine there being some degree of excitement for those who do climate negotiations with respect to a new initiative among trade negotiators on EGA — and that’s how it should be.”

Across the board, participants agreed that renewed negotiations would mark a major step forward in the global effort to combat climate change — although it remains too early to tell whether they will take place in APEC, the WTO, a bilateral or regional forum, or in all of the above.

“Let’s not pretend that trade is going to be the silver bullet to solve climate change, but trade can make a contribution,” said Vitalis. “I think that’s a very powerful message to our societies: trade is actually part of the solution here, not part of the problem.”

To view the original overview on the Silverado Policy Accelerator website, please click here.

The post WITA’s Trade & Environment Series: Trading for Good appeared first on WITA.

Trade & Environmental Sustainability 

• Moderator: Ambassador Robert Holleyman, Partner, Crowell & Moring LLP and President & CEO, C&M International; former Deputy United States Trade Representative
• Ambassador Vangelis Vitalis, New Zealand Deputy Secretary Trade and Economic, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
• Madelaine Tuininga, European Commission, DG Trade Head of Unit for Sustainable Development and the European Green Deal
• Himamauli Das, Senior Managing Director, K2 Integrity, and former Senior Director for International Trade and Investment, National Security Council

To view more information on the event, please click here. 

The post WITC 2021: Trade & Environmental Sustainability  appeared first on WITA.

• Beth Bechdol, Deputy Director General, UN Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• Gayle E. Smith, President and CEO, ONE Campaign
• Ambassador Darci Vetter, Vice Chair, Agriculture, Food and Trade, Edelman
• Caitlin Welsh, Director, Global Food Security Program, CSIS

The post WITA Webinar: COVID-19 & Trade: Is the Global Food Supply Chain Holding Up? appeared first on WITA.

Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project

By: Madelyn Cunningham

On February 4th, 2020, WITA hosted Rich Thau as a keynote speaker, as he gave his presentation, “Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project.” Kimberly Ellis, WITA Board member and Principal of the Monument Policy Group, introduced Thau with his business title, President and Co-Founder of Engagious, and his other project, the Swing Voter Project. By grouping swing voters into two categories: Obama-Trump voters and Romney-Clinton voters, Thau has set out to predict the outcome of swing voting counties in the Upper Midwest.

Thau began by discussing his methodology of picking locations to study, through a color-coded map released by CNBC. The map depicted in dark red the highest rates of swing voting in the 2016 elections from Obama to Trump. Each dark red county was cross-examined by population, and selected if not too sparsely populated.

But why take on this project? According to Thau, there were three reasons. Firstly, in 2016, inconsistent and purely quantitative pollsters did not account for the entire opinion of those they were polling. Thau highlighted the need to not only ask what their opinion was, but also why, prompting his qualitative research design.

Secondly, Thau argued that no one should be shocked by the 2020 election outcome as they were in 2016, especially with the amount of contention in the recent political climate. Lastly, the project should be able to uncover key insights into swing voting habits.

Thau then moved on into his key findings thus far. He found that from the areas he polled, the swing voters were low information voters, receiving most of their news and political information from local broadcastings limited to sports, weather, crime, and traffic, local websites, facebook, national morning TV shows, and “news aggregators” accessible from their device. 

To build on the fact that these are low information voters, Thau asked participants to identify the Democratic candidates for the upcoming 2020 election. He first asked them how confident they were in identifying the Democratic candidates from official photos on a 1 to 10 scale.

In August, Bernie Sanders was the first most identified, at 8.3, followed by Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Beto O’Rourke. Pete Buttigieg was less than 2 and has not shifted since the scale was generated in August. For comparison, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, though not a presidential candidate for 2020, was ranked by identification rate in 4th place after Elizabeth Warren. 

In October, Thau was interviewed by Michael Smerconish about the likelihood that Obama-Trump voters would vote for Trump again in the fall. He discussed a hypothetical match-up between Obama and Trump. In each focus group, roughly 2/3rds would choose President Trump. Even though Trump’s campaign promise to bring back manufacturing jobs in the area had not been followed through, these voters were still with the president because of his “America First” agenda.

Compared to the Obama-Trump voters, swing voters that voted Romney then Clinton responded they would vote for Obama in an Obama-Trump match-up.

Thau also found that there was not much “nostalgia” for the Obama-Biden administration among the swing voters. Even participants from Joe Biden’s hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania, felt no connection to him as a candidate, saying that he was not truly from there to begin with. 

Thau’s third key finding tied into how the state of the economy directly relates to the likelihood of Trump’s reelection, as many voted for him because of his background in business. If the economy turns, support for him would dwindle as he is weak in key issues important to the swing voter demographic. 

In suburban Minneapolis, participants pointed out that he had made “zero effort” to fix the healthcare system. If a democratic candidate were to run on the platform of better, affordable healthcare, this would garner support from swing voters. Trump’s behavior and presence was also analyzed, and while some were supportive, many participants were embarrassed when seeing him on their TV or device. The main dissidents for Trump’s behavior being the Romney-Clinton voters.

As mentioned in his CNN interview with Michael Smerconish, while he did not follow through on the promise to restore manufacturing jobs, his “America First” agenda in foreign policy has won over the swing voters in the Midwest. Relating to foreign affairs, while Trump has been strong with trade policy, the hot button issue for these voters was immigration. While not interchangeable, swing voters view immigration and trade as two issues on “the same ‘America First’ coin.”  

The swing voters do not view trade as a key voting issue, they know more about negotiations with China than they do about the USMCA. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, when asked about whether they knew anyone who personally benefited or was harmed from Trump’s trade policy, there was no response from the focus group.

To encapsulate the swing voters’ knowledge on trade, Thau stated that one response summarized the entire demographic, “we have used so much out of America, and imposing those tariffs will eventually move those jobs back here even though it will cost us more.” 

To further explain the swing voter’s engagement with trade policy, Thau explained that about 3/4ths believe that America’s efforts to secure a fair trade deal with China will be worth the higher prices on imports from other countries. However there is a limit to their tariff support, as if the trade war with China was prolonged and prices were significantly raised, Trump would lose support. All of the swing voters believed that only American Swing Voters beared the cost for tariffs.

Shown a clip of Senator Klobuchar on trade, her approval rating from the Wilkes-Barre focus group increased drastically as soon as she discussed her support for “Made in America” goods. There is a growing mistrust of corporations, but where Senator Warren’s statements about trade are supported by focus groups, their support for her falls when discussing how she will pay for her programs like “Medicare for All” by taking from big corporations. The participants, while in support of the issue, respond that to expect the top income bracket and big corporations to pay for this plan is unachievable.

Moving on to bonus issues, swing voters believe that the weather is getting “weirder” when asked about environmental policy. There is an awareness of climate change, and they are critical of regulatory rollbacks affecting the environment. When asked about the environmental rollbacks, participants in Wilkes-Barre said that they affected the air and water quality and ultimately the health of the community, which could not afford basic healthcare in most cases. There was an overall sense of fear and worry about the state of the environment, and it was more of a key voting issue than healthcare policy.

Participants were also asked to fill in the blank: “Make America _________ Again.” Overwhelmingly, they responded to make America “America” again and “fair.” But there was no consensus as to what they specifically wanted America to be, and Thau argued that this was one of the key problems for Democrats, as while united against Trump, there is no common platform or idea of what they think America should be. 

Thau discussed his findings relating to the impeachment trial of President Trump. The swing voters viewed the trial was just a distraction and demonstration that the Democratic party leaders are out of touch with “regular” Americans. They blame impeachment for the lack of policy and coverage on issues that matter to them.

To conclude his presentation, Thau summarized his key arguments through the various swing voter trends found in his project thus far. He stated that there needs to be attention paid to those who are low information voters, Trump’s “America First” sentiment maintained his support among the demographic, the economy is a determining factor in his reelection, and there was no consensus on what America should be going forward.

To get updates on the findings from Rich Thau’s project, sign up for his newsletter on SwingVoterProject.com.

Kimberly Ellis of the Monument Policy Group joined Rich Thau onstage for a debrief on his presentation. She first asked for Thau’s thoughts on Mike Bloomberg’s prospects in the upcoming race. Thau responded with the fact that in many of the counties he visited, Bloomberg was, for the most part, an unfamiliar candidate.

One of the respondents in Wilkes-Barre pointed out that there was no grass-roots support for Bloomberg, that instead Bloomberg was just a billionaire spending money on his campaign. In contrast, Trump ran on the platform that his campaign was supported from the bottom up, and not just from large personal donations.

In regard to trade policy, Ellis went on to ask whether or not the swing voters supported Trump’s trade policy. Thau stated that they were in absolute support, and that it was not necessarily his specific agreements and policy work, but his messaging of “being on the case”. There is no awareness of the economic effects of his deals, but they are more focused on progress overall.

Featuring:

Rich Thau, President & Co-Founder, Engagious

Kimberly Ellis, Principal, Monument Policy Group

To view more details about the event, visit the event page here.

The post WITC 2020: Trade and the 2020 Elections: The Swing Voter Project appeared first on WITA.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), Chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee discussed the Subcommittee agenda, his priorities, his views of the Administration’s trade agenda, and what we might expect on USMCA, trade talks with China, and pending FTA discussions. 

FEATURING

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D-OR)

Steve Lamar, Executive Vice President, American Apparel & Footwear Association

Amid rising tensions and ongoing negotiations, the issue of trade has become a central point of discussion among media organizations, lawmakers, and businesses alike. This WITA event welcomed the chair of the Ways & Means Trade Subcommittee, Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR), who offered his views on the current state of international trade. After introductory remarks from Ken I. Levinson, WITA’s executive director, and moderator Steve Lamar, the Executive Vice President of American Apparel and Footwear and President of WITA’s Board of Directors, Rep. Blumenauer began his opening statement. 

Rep. Blumenauer was frank in his analysis of the situation. He voiced his belief that robust international trade was necessary for economic activity and growth, and criticized President Trump’s “drive-by tariffs” and “vexing” agenda. Such instability undercuts the United States’ position with China, who he identified as a negative and ruthless actor in the international community. After years of tension, he did not want to come out with only a purchase order to show.  

Rep. Blumenauer also commented on the original NAFTA agreement, identifying its various weaknesses and shortcomings. It failed to produce substantial benefits for foreign workers. For example, after adjusting for inflation, the average Mexican worker is making less today than they did pre-NAFTA. Further, it failed to reduce the crisis at the U.S.-Mexican border, and did not comprehensively address pressing environmental issues. 

Following his initial remarks, Rep. Blumenauer answered questions from the moderator, Steve Lamar, as well as the audience. Lamar opened with an inquiry about the labor standards and enforcement mechanisms outlined in USMCA, asking about the path forward for House Democrats on the issue. Rep. Blumenauer began by praising the Mexican government. He commended them for the significant steps they had taken to improve labor conditions, and voiced his confidence in the commitments given by the Mexican government. However, he also identified the need for trust building, and increasing the capacity of the USMCA to process the sheer number of anticipated contracts. 

When asked about whether or not he was satisfied with the trade hearings and vetting process for the Tranche 4 tariffs, Rep. Blumenauer gave a simple answer: “No.” He went on to explain how for many initiatives, the administration had failed to procure the proper resources for them to be successful. He called it “non-sensical,” and stated that “if they can’t implement it, just stop it!” He also stated that Congress has been too complicit in the expansion of Executive authority, and emphasized the need for Congress to re-assert its constitutional authority. Statutory guardrails for the Executive branch need to be implemented. Regardless, he called USCMA his top legislative priority, saying that “virtually everyone agrees NAFTA 2.0 is better.”

However, he cautioned against hasty expectations for USMCA’s passage. Although Mexico’s government has already approved it, he reiterated the need for the U.S. to take its time with ratification. Serious questions are still being asked, and many of the Democrats’ original requests were left out of the agreement. Rep. Blumenauer said there was little chance for the USMCA to be passed before August.

He also commented on the United States’ role in the international community. After being asked about the World Trade Organization, he said that there was concern among lawmakers about the body’s lack of U.S. leadership. The WTO is one of the United States’ major contributions to the world. As a result, Blumenauer advocated for the strengthening of WTO, as nations need a rules-based structure to promote international trade. Outside of the USMCA and China, he sees the European Union and Brexit as being prominent during the 2020 elections. He even joked that the U.K., through Brexit, competes with the U.S in terms of self-destructive behavior. 

Rep. Blumenauer was also asked about his expectations for the upcoming talks between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Given President Trump’s unpredictable behavior, China’s longevity as a nation, and their propensity to play the “long-game,” Blumenauer said he had no expectations for the meeting. To conclude, he emphasized the need for cross-cutting discussions between Democrats and Republicans on the issue of trade, and harkened back to his belief that robust international trade was crucial for economic growth. 

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U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement : What’s New in NAFTA 2.0?:

By Ben Stevens

FEATURING:

To view the event details, click here.

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NAFTA SERIES: WHERE ARE WE NOW? OVERVIEW:

By Ben Stevens

On Thursday, September 13, 2018, the Washington International Trade Association hosted the tenth, and final event, in the Signature NAFTA Series, titled “Where Are We Now?”. The featured panel discussed the prognosis of the NAFTA renegotiations providing the current status and prospects for the new agreement. The distinguished panelists included Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, Dr. Laura Dawson, Celeste Drake, and Professor Matt Gold. The panelists examined the challenges and uncertainties facing renegotiation efforts, while delving into the different political and economic factors influencing those with a seat at the negotiating table.

Starting the discussion was Matt Gold, current adjunct professor of law at Fordham University and former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for North America. Gold introduced the panel topic with a comprehensive background on the U.S trade policy agenda and how deviations from the status quo by the current administration have affected NAFTA’s renegotiation. He noted the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) impacted renegotiation efforts by eliminating some automatic updates that would have addressed between the three trading partners in the TPP agreement. Some areas included updates to digital commerce and telecommunications rules. He also highlighted particularly contentious elements of renegotiation, such as the sunset clause and the rule of origin requirements for atuos.

The first speaker was Arturo Sarukhan, a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution and a distinguished visiting professor at the Annenberg School of Public Diplomacy at University of Southern California. Having served as the Mexican ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Sarukhan applied his knowledge and experience from the perspective of the Mexican government to the ongoing NAFTA renegotiations. He gave background on how the change in Mexican political leadership, through the July elections, had impacted negotiation process; highlighting a “strong desire of both the current and future leadership of Mexico to get a deal done”. Ambassador Sarukhan highlighted changes in the North American bilateral relations between the U.S and Canada as well as the U.S and Mexico. Attempting to illustrate the potential positive and negative implications of a new NAFTA, he noted that positive aspects IPR and e-commerce, while pointing out what he believed were negative aspects in the sunset clause and rules of origin requirements. Ambassador Sarukhan described a high level of uncertainty regarding the negotiations. He pointed out that “until congress submits a text to the president” there is a high level of speculation regarding potential changes to the trade agreement.

Second to speak was Dr. Lauren Dawson, Director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, explained the Canadian perspective on the NAFTA renegotiation efforts by discussing how Canadian politicians must weigh the political pressure to stand opposed to President Trump against the economic incentives for cooperation with the U.S for a “more liberalized trade environment”. Dr. Dawson discussed the political impetus behind current negotiations. She highlighted how it could beneficial, stating it was analogous with “nitroglycerin in a mine”, as it could “clear the path”. However, she also pointed out that if it was too much, it would be as if there was too much nitroglycerin to cause too big of an explosion that would “collapse the whole mine”. Like Ambassador Sarukhan, Dr. Dawson made sure to highlight the uncertainty in the renegotiations.

Celeste Drake, trade and Globalization Specialist for the AFLCIO, was the final panelist to round out the discussion. She focused on the way labor unions view NAFTA and current renegotiation efforts. Her analysis provided a unique perspective that had not highlighted previously by the other panelists. She emphasized elements of NAFTA labor interprets as detrimental to workers ability to form unions, particularly in Mexico where unionization has been dramatically curtailed, or realize the gains of trade relative to the company owners. Like the other panelists Drake highlighted the uncertainty around the renegotiation. However, she described this uncertainty as a positive for labor as, they see potential for their concerns with NAFTA to be addressed. She argued that sunset clauses are not necessarily bad; because almost all legislation, like the Defense Authorization Act, require mandatory reexamination.

The panel provided a deep-dive into the NAFTA re-negotiations. A diverse set of viewpoints were examined, as the panelists provided unique perspectives of different stakeholders.

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