President Ruto needs to show to his people that democracy delivers for Kenya. The United States has been a strong supporter of this goal. We can still do more.

Kenya is one of our most critical allies on an increasingly important continent; a booming population means that within a decade, 1 in 5 people on the planet will be living in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the rest of the world gets older, the median age in Africa is only 19. African countries have massive reserves of critical minerals, renewable energy, and arable land. It is their human resources, however, that are most valuable and some of the fastest growing in the world.

Someone who understands these facts well is U.S. Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman. In the burgeoning tech hub of East Africa, Whitman has been a tireless cheerleader for Kenya’s economic growth and potential. She has championed its growing manufacturing sector and its compelling use of renewable energy sources, which power most of the country’s energy needs.

Whitman’s approach is exactly what’s needed in Africa as a whole: an enthusiastic U.S. push for democratic ideals coupled with equitable economic growth. Through the bipartisan African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the United States has for two decades provided broad market access to sub-Saharan African countries and encouraged U.S. private sector investment. It also incentivizes good governance, workers’ rights and the rule of law. In Kenya, AGOA has jumpstarted the emergence of a promising apparel sector, creating job opportunities and economic growth.

Unfortunately, AGOA expires next year. Without an early reauthorization, global industry may turn away from opportunities in Africa. That’s why Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and I introduced the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 last month. This bill would extend the program to 2041, providing businesses the long-term certainty they need to move their supply chains away from China and invest in Africa.

Kenya is more than just part of a growing economic bloc, however — it is an example for its neighbors in a rapidly changing part of the world. Kenyans have fought hard to be a democracy on a continent that has more coups than any other. A country that is already facing the effects of climate change, Kenya has stepped up to the plate as a partner in conservation efforts. In this, too, the United States can do more. By bolstering public-private partnerships in communities that manage protected and conserved areas, we can protect the environment while investing in the people who live in and around these natural wonders.

Kenya is also a critical security partner both within Africa and beyond. Last year, the U.S. and Kenya signed a five-year defense cooperation agreement, strengthening the already strong relationship between our armed forces. Whether it’s partnering on counterterrorism bodog online casino efforts in East Africa, the anti-Houthi task force in the Red Sea, or the Multinational Security Support mission to Haiti, the United States and Kenya are working together on strategic goals not just for our countries but the world. This week we will reaffirm our security partnership, particularly in the face of a growing Russian footprint in Africa.

The United States has also prioritized delivering on better investments in development and offering an alternative to China’s debt-trap diplomacy. China far and away dominates trade with Africa, investing three times as much in the continent as American counterparts. To this, the United States has an answer: the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). By investing early in companies, the DFC can provide the funding needed to ensure new ideas and innovation can succeed without opaque and high-priced Chinese loans.

The tests Kenya faces are echoed across the continent and the globe. Their approach is rooted in a belief in democracy, in expanding opportunity, and collaborating with partners, including the United States. It’s a testament to President Biden’s leadership that he recognizes that a close relationship with Kenya is essential to our country’s success, and that a state visit from a Kenyan president sends a signal of our seriousness.

This visit is smart and strategic for both President Ruto and President Biden, and reflects a collaborative, forward-thinking perspective on tackling the urgent global challenges of our time. Ever since I first set foot in Nairobi 40 years ago, a bright-eyed college student, I knew I had entered a special, dynamic place full of potential. Now the rest of the world sees that, too. This state visit demonstrates American commitment to Kenyans — not just for this week, but for generations to come.

Chris Coons is the junior senator from Delaware and is a member of the Foreign Relations Committee.

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Thus far, it is true that only five countries in Eastern Africa have deposited their ratification of the AfCFTA. However, it is not the number of countries that counts but the fact that Bodog Poker representing around three-quarters of regional GDP—is coalescing. From January 1, 2021, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda will all begin a reduction in their tariffs—starting with a linear reduction on 90 percent of tariff lines—leading to the elimination of tariffs on intra-regional imports over a period of five years (10 years in the case of countries classified by the United Nations as “least developed countries”); by the standards of regional trade agreements, this pace of liberalization will be quite rapid.

Figure 1. East African countries that have deposited the ratification of the AfCFTA with the African Union, September 2020

Source: TRALAC, 2020

One of the big boons for the region from the AfCFTA will be unblocking bodog sportsbook review the trade barriers between Kenya and Ethiopia—the two largest economies in eastern Africa. Despite previous efforts to deepen economic relations, the volumes of bilateral trade between the two remain exceedingly low. In fact, total bilateral trade did not even reach $70 million in 2019, accounting for just 0.5 percent of Ethiopia’s total exports and 0.09 percent of Kenya’s, and consisting principally of food and live animals and some manufactured goods (Table 1).

Table 1. Bilateral Ethiopian/Kenyan trade, 2015-2019 (millions USD and %)

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

The reasons for this neglect so far of these neighboring markets are fairly clear and go beyond the usual considerations of prevailing low per capita incomes. On the one hand, Ethiopia retains a fairly protectionist tariff policy, with high tariff peaks in particular sectors. But East African Community (EAC) members like Kenya (and not Ethiopia) also currently impose a high common external tariff on imports of Ethiopian goods in spite of the fact that both countries are members of regional grouping the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). The reason is that Ethiopia has not yet acceded to the COMESA Free Trade Area, and, hence, relatively high tariffs are still imposed on bilateral trade. A similar problem impacts Burundian, Rwandan, and Ugandan trade with neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—all are members of COMESA, yet the DRC has yet to accede to the FTA.

In principle, the implementation of the AfCFTA will pave the way for a rapid dismantling of such impediments to cross-border trade. Alongside the removal of tariff barriers, the AfCFTA will also focus attention on outstanding nontariff barriers (NTBs), an important step toward increased trade in the region as studies consistently show that NTBs constrain intra-regional trade as much as or even more than tariff barriers. East Africa has already made some progress in this area by, for example, installing 25 one-stop border posts, significantly reducing the time taken for goods to pass through customs. Accompanying regional programs to the AfCFTA, like the African Union’s Action Plan for Boosting Intra-Africa Trade (BIAT), should help accelerate the progress.

To be sure, East Africa will continue to face a number of challenges, including one shared by all countries on the continent: the need to rapidly finalize the tariff offers and outstanding negotiations on the rules of origin as well as the schedules on services trade offers. This shared challenge will be particularly tough as the negotiations in areas like services and those in phase II such as competition and intellectual property policies will inevitably be quite complex and highly technical.

A second challenge is peculiar to the East African Community. Of the six members, only three have so far ratified the AfCFTA. Because the regional block of the EAC is a customs union and, consequently, has a common external tariff (CET), without further ratification of the AfCFTA by the other three member states, problems for the integrity of the CET will arise. Rules of origin in principle may limit this problem, but their liberal application will lead to greater bureaucratic overheads and increase the risk of trade diversion (whereby trade is diverted from a more efficient exporter toward a less efficient one because of the differential tariffs being applied). This could thereby reduce the benefits derived from the AfCFTA. Thus, the greater the degree of harmonization of trade policy regimes within East Africa, the better, bodog online casino as this will facilitate deeper regional economic integration and pave the way for the eventual formation of an African-wide customs union, as contemplated under the AfCFTA agreement.

A third related question is how to manage future trade negotiations with third parties. Mindful of the consequences of a possible phasing out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025, Kenya has already entered into negotiations with the aim of establishing a free trade agreement with the United States. Eager to establish new trade deals after its departure from the European Union, the United Kingdom is also approaching a number of countries in the region. The Kenya-U.S. free trade agreement has been particularly controversial, but perhaps unduly so: In principle, there is nothing impeding countries in East Africa from negotiating with third parties. However, for the reasons explained above with respect to rules of origin, it is better to avoid totally disparate approaches to third-party negotiations.

In short, to move forward decisively with AfCFTA implementation, East Africa needs to be better integrated both internally and with the wider African economy. However, it would be preferable, wherever possible, that national policy is aligned and that the regional blocks move together. By reenergizing existing commitments, such as those attained through COMESA and the EAC, or those envisaged under the Tripartite Agreement between SADC, COMESA, and the EAC, the AfCFTA will provide the perfect framework to achieve that goal.

Andrew Mold is the Chief, Regional Integration and AfCFTA Cluster, Office for Eastern Africa – United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

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Downplay China

The United States started the FTA process on the wrong foot, framing it as part of its competition with China rather than about deepening trade links. In early 2018, Lighthizer was explicit that an FTA was about China, warning that “if we don’t figure out a way to move them right then China and others are going move them in the wrong direction.” This statement was counterproductive, feeding Kenyan opinion pieces that warned about bodog online casino “U.S obsession with China” and advising Kenya to “watch its steps.” Kenyans have grown tired of hearing about China from the United States, including from an ambassador who rarely misses an opportunity to take a swipe at Beijing. It is true that Kenya imports more than double from China what it imports from any other country, and it owes Beijing lots of money— some 33 percent of the country’s external debt—for various infrastructure projects, including the Standard Gauge Railway. Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta, however, has insisted that “we want to work with everybody, and we think there is opportunity for everybody,” and rejects those countries who behave “like Africa is for the taking.” Substantively, the perception that the FTA is a response to Chinese activity in the region risks turning off other African states that are disinclined to choose sides to deal with the United States. Gerhard Erasmus, founder of the Trade Law Center, concludes the United States and Kenya will have to show it is possible to pull off this balancing act.

Preserve AGOA

The announcement of U.S.-Kenya FTA negotiations spurred another round of handwringing over the fate of AGOA. U.S. officials routinely express their disappointment with the decades-old trade legislation, which provides tariff-free access on 6,500 products to 39 countries. In 2019, U.S. Trade Representative for Africa Connie Hamilton said AGOA has not been “a game-changer for many countries” and has talked about thinking beyond AGOA when the trade-preference regime expires in 2025. While there is a bipartisan consensus that it is time to graduate from AGOA, the administration’s bilateral approach to FTAs almost certainly will not move fast enough to cover the region’s 49 countries before AGOA’s expiration. A “network of agreements,” as envisioned by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy, similarly is unrealistic; some countries will not meet the rigorous standards for a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States. Mukhisa Kituyi, secretary general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, worries that an FTA with Kenya will weaken the region’s collective bargaining power regarding AGOA. The United States and Kenya will need to assuage concerns that an FTA will not portend a premature end to AGOA without a plan for the other 48 sub-Saharan African countries.

Support the AfCFTA

The United States and Kenya have faced a barrage of criticism about the FTA’s negative implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA—which has been signed by 53 out of 54 countries, as well as Western Sahara—has the potential to unite a market of more than 1.2 billion people and a combined GDP of more than $3.4 trillion, which would be the fifth largest economy in the world, larger than India’s nominal GDP. It is widely viewed as a cure for many of the region’s economic woes, especially its low level of intra-African trade. Many of its boosters, consequently, regard the FTA as a spoiler. Erastus Mwencha, a former African Union (AU) Commission deputy chairman and the first secretary-general of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, has been especially vocal. He points out that “under the AU, the African heads of state have discouraged member States from entering into bilateral free trade negotiations with third parties because they jeopardize the AfCFTA.” Washington and Nairobi have tried to challenge this interpretation, arguing that the FTA will complement Africa’s regional integration efforts. However, it is clear that the FTA poses significant challenges for all of the parties. A former senior African official explained that while the AfCFTA does not prohibit members from negotiating with other parties, the most-favored nation provisions means that “any advantage, concession or privilege granted to a Third Party under such arrangements is extended to other State Parties on a reciprocal basis.” The United States and Kenya will have to reconcile these issues, reassuring other African governments that their agreement will not undermine the region’s most historic FTA.

A High-Wire Act

There is more at stake in the U.S.-Kenya FTA negotiations than just increasing trade between the world’s largest economy and one of Africa’s largest economies. The United States has to demonstrate that its interests are broader than merely countering China’s rise in Africa. It also has to show that its negotiations with Kenya will not prejudice AGOA preferences for other countries or harm the AfCFTA’s progress. The path ahead is not an easy one, but if these challenges are resolved, the FTA has the potential to strengthen and reaffirm U.S. ties to sub-Saharan Africa.

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President Donald J. Trump’s pursuit of a trade deal with Kenya marks a shift in U.S. policy toward Africa, which has not been a focus of his administration. The move is the latest of Trump’s aggressive pushes for more bilateral trade deals, and officials hope it could help counter growing Chinese influence on the continent.

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Trade talks with Nairobi were announced during a White House visit by Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta in early February. It would be the United States’ first free trade agreement (FTA) with a sub-Saharan African country and its second on the continent, after the 2006 FTA with Morocco.

The announcement came shortly before Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s first visit to the sub-Saharan region, which he used to warn about the risks of Chinese investment.

What would a deal mean for U.S.-Kenya trade?

Trade between the two countries currently stands at around $1 billion annually, just barely putting Kenya in the United States’ top one hundred trading partners. While the United States is a major destination for Kenyan exports, Kenya’s total U.S. trade is dwarfed by that with other partners, especially China, from which it imports more than $3.6 billion worth of goods each year.

It’s unclear how much a new trade pact would move the needle. Kenya already has preferential access to the U.S. market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a program started in 2000 that eliminates import tariffs on goods from dozens of African countries. Kenya is one of AGOA’s top five exporters to the United States, primarily sending apparel, cocoa, tree nuts, coffee, and tea. It imports American aircraft, machinery, agricultural products, and plastics.

AGOA’s goal is to foster development for its members; in a bilateral trade deal, Washington will likely look for increased benefits for U.S. firms. That could mean increased market access for U.S. farm and manufacturing exports, greater openness to U.S. investment, intellectual Bodog Poker property protections, and domestic pro-market reforms.

What’s at stake?

Perhaps foremost among Washington’s concerns is China’s growing influence across Africa. While U.S.-Africa trade has declined since 2008, African trade with China has soared. China is also devoting hundreds of billions of dollars to its Belt and Road Initiative, which comprises infrastructure investments across Africa, Asia, and Europe.

That has included Kenya, with a $4 billion railway between Nairobi and Mombasa that opened in late 2019. The rail project—financed, built, and operated mostly by Chinese firms—raised domestic concerns about a debt trap. China is not the only power deepening its ties to the continent. The European Union has launched a series of EU-Africa summits and is working on trade and investment agreements with most African countries.

Kenya is already a top U.S. foreign aid recipient and major U.S. partner in the region, particularly on counterterrorism, and is among the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. After three years in office, the Trump administration has put little effort into bolstering partnerships in Africa, but U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has argued for changing that.

For Trump, Kenya is a good candidate for his broader trade philosophy—one based on bilateral deals that he sees as more advantageous for securing concessions—and a deal with Nairobi could serve as a template for the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Kenyatta, meanwhile, is eager to maintain access to U.S. markets in case AGOA—set to expire in 2025—is not renewed.

At the same time, some observers have cautioned that a bilateral approach could backfire for Africa. They argue that a U.S.-Kenya deal could undermineattempts to build a region-wide economic bloc, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

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