The United States, along with allies and partners, imposed sanctions and export restrictions following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, its election interference, and attempts on the lives of regime opponents. The sanctions are likely to be a topic of discussion during President Joe Biden’s summit with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on June 16 in Geneva.

To mitigate the impact of the sanctions, Moscow pursued a policy of import substitutionto offset losing access to vital components for its civilian and military manufacturing sectors. For instance, Russia was reliant on Ukrainian manufacturers like Motor Sich and Zorya-Mashproekt for marine and aircraft engines. These companies not only provided key inputs for Russia’s own military capabilities, but also for those systems that Russia exported to other nations.

Russia’s attempts to substitute domestic production for previously imported technologies have been delayed and in many cases have fallen short. The main problem with Russia’s import substitution program is its inability to acquire bodog poker review high-tech machine tools (PDF)from Western suppliers for industrial production.

Subsidiaries of Russia’s United Engine Corporation (UEC) pursued development of advanced marine engines to replace those previously imported from Zorya-Mashproekt but have faced various difficulties. Many of these issues are symptoms of larger problems in the Russian military-industrial complex. For example, Moscow made the decision to write-off debt held by UEC, United Aircraft Corporation, and United Shipbuilding Corporation as a result of years of financial issues and mismanagement. The extent to which the Russian government can continue to prop up the defense industrial base is not clear. Putin has stated recently that renationalization of the industry is one possible path the government could pursue.

What is clear is that the termination of the Russian defense industrial relationship with Ukraine has had cascading effects for Russia’s arms exports. Russia was negotiating deals with both India and Vietnam to export naval vessels, but both prospective sales have encountered problems. In the case of Vietnam, negotiations are currently stalled for lack of engines. India, in contrast, had to acquire marine engines directly from Ukraine in early 2021, separate from Russia, for installation on the vessels. India has separately pursued joint production of marine turbine engines with Rolls-Royce. These workarounds do not bode well for future Russian arms sales.

Recently, Russian officials announced that production for a civil aircraft had been stalled due to Western sanctions. Russia has also used its intelligence services to assist in the pursuit of aircraft engine development. In April, the FBI added an intelligence officer for Russia’s Foreign bodog sportsbook review Intelligence Service, who was working as a UEC executive, to its most-wanted list for allegedly conspiring to steal trade secrets from a Western aerospace company.

Further harming Russian aircraft development and production is the rise of China’s defense industry. Increasingly, China has transitioned from, and even replaced, Russian engines with its own domestically-built ones. The rise of China and other new competitors in the international arms market may challenge Russia’s transition to greater indigenous production because its military-industrial complex partially relies on export orders to sustain itself.

Russia tried to address its engine production challenge by purchasing a Norwegian marine engine facility. For a variety of reasons, Norway’s Ministry of Justice and Public Security announcedin March that it had blocked the sale of Bergen Engines, which produces and maintains marine engines for Norwegian intelligence vessels. The Norwegian facility has been owned by Rolls-Royce for years, but it has struggled to turn a profit. Importantly, the international conglomerate seeking to buy the Norwegian facility was Russia’s Transmashholding, which is not a sanctioned entity like UEC. It is listed neither on the Office of Foreign Asset Control’s Specially Designated Nationals nor its Sectoral Sanctions Identifications List (PDF).

Nevertheless, the Norwegian government stated it blocked the sale due to national security concerns. Norway’s Ministry of Justice highlighted how the sale would have benefitted Russia’s defense industry and that permitting the sale could have allowed it to circumvent Western sanctions. The Norwegian government, as a founding NATO member, did not believe Bodog Poker the immediate economic benefits of Bergen Engines’ sale outweighed the security risks inherent in providing military naval engines to its aggressive neighbor.

Like Norway, many countries around the globe are on high alert for Russia’s provocative actions. Norway stood up to Russia and put its security and that of its allies and partners ahead of potential short-term economic benefit. This is an example other countries might follow.

To read the full commentary from The RAND Corporation, please click here.

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The current kerfuffle was kicked off when the president visited Maine, and no doubt got an earful from Maine lobstermen about declining exports. Once derisively known as the cockroach of the sea, marketing campaigns by the industry over decades, not to mention the fact that the product is delicious, have created a healthy growing industry, primarily in Maine, and exports are a large part of it. In the first half of 2018, for example, Maine lobster exports were more than double what they were in the first half of 2017. That came to a crashing halt the next month when the president imposed tariffs on China as a result of his Section 301 investigation, and the Chinese retaliated with tariffs on, among other things, lobster. Over the next 12 months, Maine exports of live lobsters declined 46.7 percent, as China shifted its purchases to Canada. Although Canadian lobsters are rumored to be nicer than American lobsters, the truth is they’re all about the same, and our president handed Canada a significant gift. (Don’t let the Canadians tell you he’s never done anything for them.)

Compounding the problem, Canada at the same time concluded a free trade agreement with the European Union, in which the EU 8 percent lobster tariff, among other items, dropped to zero for Canadian lobsters but remained in effect for American lobsters. So, a double whammy for the Maine lobster industry. bodog casino The lobstermen have also figured out that if they move their operations across the border, they can both avoid the Chinese tariff and benefit from the zero EU tariff, which adds to the decline of the U.S. industry.

The president’s response, not unexpectedly, was to threaten more tariffs. That appears to be the only arrow in his quiver. In particular, he once again threatened to impose tariffs on automobile imports from the European Union if they did not reduce their lobster tariff. That has caused some consternation in the auto industry, which had hoped that idea would be given the burial it deserved.

It also, of course, further worsened our relations with the European Union at the very point we should be trying to improve them. As I said last week, that relationship is fraught, but the imperative of the China challenge should impel both of us to reconcile our differences and work together to confront the common adversary. Threatening them with auto tariffs—again—is definitely not going to do that. It was a particularly odd threat now because it would do significant damage to both our economies at a time when both are in dire straits because of Covid-19.

The larger problem with the threat is that it completely misses the point. The industry is not in trouble because of a longstanding European tariff that has not changed. It is in trouble because of Chinese retaliation against U.S. tariffs. And, even if the EU tariff were the cause, the solution would be to do what the Canadians did and negotiate a trade agreement with the European Union. Instead, what started out as a fight with China over “structural issues”—intellectual property theft, subsidies, and treatment of state-owned enterprises—has instead undermined American farmers, lobstermen, and manufacturers bodog poker review without achieving any of its objectives. It remains to be seen whether all this collateral damage will make any difference in the November election.

This episode also serves as a reminder of the president’s overall approach to trade problems, which is to instinctively reach for the stick rather than the carrot. Is somebody doing something we don’t like? Let’s put on a tariff. That’ll show ‘em. One would think that after three and a half years of this, he would realize that what he has really accomplished is to teach other countries how to get even. My experience in the trade business has been that carrots almost always work better than sticks, or, to quote my first boss on the Hill, you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Neither of those goes very well with lobster, but you get the idea.

To view the original blog, click here.

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