Our excess-mortality model suggests that 8m-16m people have died in the pandemic. The central estimate is 14m. The developing world is vulnerable to the virus, especially lower-middle-income countries where remote working is rare and plenty of people are fat and old. If you strip out China, non-rich countries have 68% of the world’s population but 87% of its deaths. Only 5% of those aged over 12 are fully vaccinated.

Alongside the human cost is an economic bill, since emerging markets have less room to spend their way out of trouble. Medium-term gdp forecasts for all emerging economies are in aggregate 5% lower than before the virus struck. People are angry and, even though protesting during a pandemic is risky, violent demonstrations around the world are more common than at any time since 2008.

Rich places, such as America and Britain, are no strangers to incompetence and turmoil. But disappointment has hit emerging economies especially hard. In the early 2000s they buzzed with talk of “catch-up”: the idea that poorer countries could prosper by absorbing foreign technology, investing in manufacturing and opening up their economies to trade, as a handful of East Asian tiger economies had done a generation earlier. Wall Street coined the term brics to celebrate Brazil, Russia, India and China—the world economy’s new superstars.

For a while, catch-up worked. The proportion of countries where the level of economic output per head was growing faster than in America rose from 34% in the 1980s to 82% in the 2000s. The implications were momentous. Poverty fell. Multinational companies pivoted away from the boring old West. In geopolitics catch-up promised a new multipolar world in which power was more evenly distributed.

This golden age now looks as if it has come to a premature end. In the 2010s the share of countries catching up fell to 59%. China has defied many doomsayers and there have been quieter Asian success stories such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. But Brazil and Russia have let down the brics and, as a whole, Latin America, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa are falling further behind the rich world. Even emerging Asia is catching up more slowly than it was.

Bad luck has played a part. The commodity boom of the 2000s fizzled out, global trade stagnated after the financial crisis and bouts of exchange-rate turbulence caused turmoil. But so has complacency as countries have come to think that fast growth was preordained. In many places basic services such as education and health care have been neglected. Crippling problems have been left unfixed, including South Africa’s idle power plants, India’s rotten banks and Russia’s corruption. Instead of defending liberal institutions, such as central banks and the courts, politicians have used them for their own gain.

What happens next? One risk is an emerging-market economic crisis as interest rates in America rise. Fortunately most emerging economies are less brittle than they were, because they have floating exchange rates and rely less on foreign-currency debt. Long-running political crises are a bigger worry. Research suggests that protests suppress the economy, which leads to further discontent—and that the effect is more marked in emerging markets.

Bodog Poker Even if emerging economies avoid chaos, the legacy of covid-19 and rising protectionism could condemn them to a long period of slower growth. Many of their people will remain unvaccinated until well into 2022. Long-term productivity could be lowered as a result of so many children having missed school.

Trade may also become harder. China is turning inward, away from the broadly open policies that made it richer. If that continues, China will never be the vast source of consumer demand for the poor world that America has been for China in recent decades.

The West’s increasing protectionism will also limit export opportunities for foreign producers which, in any case, will be less advantageous as manufacturing becomes less labour-intensive. Unfortunately, rich countries are unlikely to make up for it by liberalising trade in services, which would open up other paths to growth. And they may fail to help exposed economies such as Bangladesh—a success story—adapt to climate change.

Faced with this grim landscape, emerging markets may themselves be tempted to abandon open trade and investment. That would be a grave error. An unforgiving global environment makes it even more important for them to stick to policies that work. Turkey’s notion that raising interest rates causes inflation has been disastrous; Venezuela’s pursuit of socialism has been ruinous; and banning foreign firms from adding customers, as India just has with Mastercard, is self-defeating. When catching up is hard, those emerging markets which stay open will have the best chance.

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Some rules have changed: universal access to digital technologies is now vital, as is an adequate social safety-net. But the principles of how to get rich remain the same today as they ever were. Stay open to trade, compete in global markets and invest in infrastructure and education. Before the liberal reforms of recent decades, economies were diverging. There is time yet to avoid a return to the needless hardship of old.

To read the full commentary from The Economist, please click here. 

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Change is happening as West African countries work together to ‘pool’ their power systems for better use and sharing of cheaper, greener energy resources available right in the neighborhood. The region has significant natural energy resources, namely, hydropower, gas, and wind mostly along the coast and solar power – especially in the Sahel region. The West African Power Pool (WAPP), established in 1999, expects to interconnect the 14 mainland countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) by the middle of the decade and bring to fruition a self-reliant regional power market that delivers abundant affordable electricity to all.

Across the region, the economic benefits of the regional power market are evaluated at up to US$665 million per year, with the average cost of electricity generation expected to fall by between a quarter and a third. Over the past 10 years, the World Bank has financed bodog poker review close to USclose to US$2.3 billion.3 billion of investments in transmission infrastructure, and institutional capacity in support of the WAPP.  

But hardware and institutions alone do not make a market. For actual trade to happen, neighbors must have confidence in each other and in the flow of commodities and payments. Despite progress, market confidence remains shaky as some countries balk at the lumpy capital investments and long lead times needed to develop new WAPP-dependent infrastructure. Others suffer from financially distressed national utilities whose creditworthiness and ability to trade may be called into question. These and other factors have caused some would-be importer countries to continue to rely on their own expensive small-scale electricity generation instead of shifting their sights and investment priorities toward least-cost options from neighboring exporter countries.     

The World Bank and other partners are helping countries overcome the financial barriers but changing mindsets and instilling trust in the market have required a new focus on regional cooperation in domestic policies.

An important step forward was the adoption of the ECOWAS Directive on the Securitization of Cross-Border Power Trade in December 2018. This regional reform program aims to increase confidence in the enforcement of commercial agreements, to encourage least-cost investment decisions that promote regional options and competition, and to promote transparency on the creditworthiness of national power utilities and on key investment decisions that may impact demand and supply across the market. It calls for national policies and reforms that, if implemented collectively across the region, will lead to sustained trade and thus investment decisions that lower costs.  

Funding from the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) supported the directive’s preparation, and the Bank is now helping to operationalize it through the $300 million West Africa Regional Energy Trade Development Policy Financing (DPF) in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, and Sierra Leone. Like other DPFs issued by the Bank, this one provides governments with fast general budget support in exchange for a pre-agreed program of institutional and policy reforms referred to as “prior actions.” Unlike other DPFs, this one marks the Bank’s first multi-country DPF operation using the Regional IDA window –[IDA is the International Development Association, the branch of the World Bank Group that supports poor countries]– and a joint matrix of policy and institutional actions. Not surprisingly, there has been a learning curve. Three important lessons have emerged so far:

1. Start with joint agreements among high-level decision makers. Early in the process (and pre-pandemic), we were able to get all the Ministers of Finance and Ministers of Energy from all six countries in one room to mutually agree on the prior actions needed to build trust in trade. This has meant that sector ministries have found it hard to back out of difficult, but necessary, prior actions required of them.
2. Design prior actions in a manner that is resilient to events. The structural measures put in place to regularize payments from Mali to Côte d’Ivoire were simple transparent mechanisms designed to limit opportunities for interference, and were unaffected by the August 2020 coup d’état in Mali, even while the West Africa Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) closed normal flow of funds with Mali.
3. Remain flexible to keep on track. The COVID-19 pandemic and continuing political instabilities in Mali delayed the DPF’s effectiveness, but we did not let these forces blow us off course. We continued to work with countries bilaterally (and virtually), and the DPF was able to launch in February 2021 with all countries fully on board.

We are encouraged by this initial progress, but deep complexities remain in knitting together the region’s power systems. Most recently, unforeseen supply shortages curtailed exports from Côte d’Ivoire to Mali and Burkina Faso. Several interconnectors under construction will eventually alleviate such shortages, as countries will be able to import from different sources in the region. Regulatory reforms backed by the DPF will further increase trade connections and confidence. Transformation at this scale takes time, but as it happens, the West Africa region will be more self-reliant, greener, and more able to cope with shocks. Together, we remain committed to achieving affordable and reliable electricity for all.   

Mustafa Zakir Hussain advises senior levels of government on policies to advance major infrastructure service delivery while controlling fiscal deficits and advancing national and global de-carbonization objectives. During 2018-21, he led dialogue in a number of countries in West Africa to reduce the fiscal burden of the energy sectors – including leading the Bank’s landmark 6-country Regional Energy Trade Development Policy Financing operation to advance affordability, resilience and de-carbonization in the region’s energy use.

His over 15-year career at the Bank has also covered Eastern and Southern Africa, South Asia, East Asia Pacific, the Balkans and North Africa. He has worked on many aspects of infrastructure service delivery – including economic regulation, output-based financing, project finance and guarantees – and polices to increase competition and improve governance around key investment decisions. A major sector focus has been on energy transition. Beyond infrastructure, he has led national multi-sector budget support operations and worked on the Bank’s operational policies and corporate agenda.

To read the full commentary from World Bank Blogs, please click here. 

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We do need more domestic production and more of the high-paying jobs that go along with it—but we won’t get there by going it alone. That’s because pivoting supply chains back home is not always realistic; we rely on components and materials from many parts of the world. There is a better way forward, and it starts by selectively leaning into our trade and co-production relationships with friends and allies we trust—what we call “ally-shoring.”

In announcing its strategy for supply chain resilience, the Biden White House recently embraced ally-shoring as the most realistic and effective path to ensuring U.S. supply chains are never as vulnerable as was exposed by COVID-19. It also is the best way to rebuild our economy and that of our friends, which strengthens the health of all our democracies. Additionally, working together to rewire supply chains and co-produce high-tech products in emerging sectors will serve to rebuild bruised alliances and U.S. global economic and political leadership, as well as check China’s bid to extend their own authoritarian economic and political model across the globe.

One reason ally-shoring makes so much sense is that in automotive and other industries, we don’t so much engage in “trade” as we make things together with other countries. This is especially true in our auto and mobility sector. Nearly 50% of Midwest states’ so-called “trade” is with Canada, Bodog Poker and 30% is with Mexico. Over half of this North American trade and 37% of our trade with allies in the EU is in intermediate goods—meaning component parts of a finished product. This “co-production” reality will be true for electric vehicles as well as other emerging mobility products, like the AI-controlled delivery robot vehicle now being “trained” on the streets of Ann Arbor, Mich.

With the disruptions of COVID-19, it is understandable that many of our leaders are proposing the “onshoring” of critical supplies. But as attractive as onshoring sounds, it is not an effective way to win the strategic competition with China. An onshoring push would not only irk our allies, but would also be problematic for U.S. companies (including our automakers) who want to keep doing business in foreign markets and using foreign-made component parts in products. It would also be impractical and impossibly costly. With sophisticated, IT-laced products like cars and phones integrating dozens of components from around the globe at the lowest cost possible, no one could afford to buy a solely domestically made one. Even attempting to onshore many supplies would reduce our influence on the world stage. Alliances have benefits too, particularly when in the middle of a global strategic tug of war for primacy between autocratic and democratic political systems.

Ally-shoring is a much better choice. It involves deliberately sourcing essential materials, goods, and services with countries who share our democratic values and commitment to an open, transparent, rules-based international economic and trade regime. Many countries would prefer to work with the U.S. than China and its dependency-building and corrupting development approach, including lower-cost producers such as Mexico, Vietnam, India, and other developing world economies that are essential in keeping supply chains cost-efficient and where we can work together to reinforce strong institutions, a level playing field for manufacturers, and transparent supply chains.

Ally-shoring increases the reliability of critical supply chains while reducing dependence on China and other state actors who will seek to continue to use that dependence to undermine the U.S. Reworking relationships to promote partnership with countries that share our values and interests would reduce our vulnerabilities while maintaining access to a wide variety of goods and markets for U.S. businesses and consumers alike.

The Biden administration’s just released critical supply chain reviewencouraged working in partnership with allies who share our values. The Senate could help the country lean into ally-shoring as well, by passing the Innovation and Competition Act of 2021. This sprawling legislation includes multiple supply chain resilience and competitiveness provisions, including a “Strategic Competition Act” that talks of “prioritizing” alliances and partnerships. In addition, ongoing legislative efforts by the Helsinki Commission—a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers committed to countering foreign corruption, kleptocracy, and authoritarianism—further reinforce democratic principles and good governance norms around the world, strengthening the foundations for long-term economic security.

If the U.S. takes steps toward ally-shoring, it would be a strong lever to put democracy at the heart of our foreign policy (as many call for) given the aggressiveness of China and Russia in trying to make authoritarianism dominant. Aside from countering rogue actors, we can shift the focus to strategies that reinforce strong democratic governance. Purposefully re-centering trade relations, production, distribution, and sourcing networks with nations that agree to standards of openness, rule of law, and democratic governance will help reverse the tide of anti-democratic rulers, norms, and practices.

Perhaps most important at a moment of rebuilding bodog casino the pandemic-ravaged domestic economy, ally-shoring would also help bring new economic opportunities and create more good jobs here at home—including where they are needed most, like the industrial Midwest. To understand how ally-shoring can contribute to an increase in production and grow new jobs in the U.S., look no further than when supply chains were initially cut. As the country worked frantically to find or make ventilators, masks, and medical equipment, it turned to domestic manufacturers with global supply chains and production capabilities—many headquartered right here. Companies such as General Motors converted sophisticated facilities and extensive networks in the Midwest and Mexico to answer the call. The Ford Motor Company quickly followed suit.

Ally-shoring is one significant tool to speed our economic recovery and help realize the president’s pledge of a “foreign policy for the middle class.”Rethinking our domestic industrial and jobs “base” is at the heart of delivering more opportunity to Americans and rebuilding a strong and prosperous middle class. Reworking our supply chains can also be a powerful contributor to restoring U.S. global leadership and strategic alliances, protecting and enhancing democracy, and checking China’s (and other authoritarians’) bad behavior—all in one fell swoop.

Elaine Dezenski is Senior Advisor at the Center on Economic and Financial Power and Chief Growth Officer at Blank Slate Technologies

John C. Austin is the former President of the Michigan State Board of Education. Austin directs the Michigan Economic Center, a center for ideas and network-building to advance Michigan’s economic transformation. Austin also serves as a nonresident senior fellow with the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and the Upjohn Institute, where he leads these organizations efforts to support economic transformation in the American Midwest. Austin also Lectures on the Economy at the University of Michigan.

To read the full commentary from the Brookings Institute, please click here.

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Geographical indications — place names or names associated with locations that are used to identify products — are a priority in the European Union’s trade policy. But there are so many criteria, categories and databases that finding out what is protected can be pretty confusing.

Often the first databases we reach via the EU website are the ones containing protected names in different categories: wines, spirits, and other products such as food and beer. Even those three do not contain names the EU protects as a result of its trade agreements with other countries.

They only contain names that are protected via a complete registration process, not the ones listed in bilateral agreements. And for registration, there are also four different ways that the EU protects these names:

• protected designation of origin (PDO)
• protected geographical indication (PGI)
• geographical indication of spirit drinks and aromatised wines (GI) — just to confuse everyone else who uses “GI” to mean all geographical indications
• traditional speciality guaranteed (TSG)

Thankfully, there is one database to bind them all: GI View.

It contains all names protected in the EU, whether registered (including names still going through registration) or listed in bilateral agreements — from all over the world.

Here are some fun facts from applying various search filters on GI View, at the time of writing (January 5, 2021).

Where the names come from (some names may come from more than one country):

• Total names in the database = 5,091
• From EU countries = 3,344
• From rest of the world = 1,747

Whether via registration or under special deals (including free trade agreements):

• Registration = 3,498
• Under agreements = 1,593

Where the registered names come from:

• Registration, from non-EU countries = 154
• Registration, from the UK (left the EU in 2020) = 86 (registered or submitted for registration while the UK was an EU member)
• Registration, from non-EU, non-UK = 68

All of this has implications for how the UK protects non-EU countries’ names.

Note: For searching by country, EU members are listed first, then the rest of the world — alphabetically according to 2-character country code where Switzerland is “CH” and the UK is “GB”.)

As well as listing the search results, the database can also map where the names come from. This can be a lot of fun. First, this is the map for the whole dataset. There are three single items. They are: “Íslenskt lambakjöt / Icelandic lamb”, “Poivre de Penja” from Cameroon, and “Увс чацаргана / Uvs Seabuckthorn” from Mongolia — all three with registration applied for:

What about those 691 names in North America? Click on the dot and we get:

And for East Aisa?

What about Europe? Now it gets pretty congested. Some of the dots still cover several countries:

What if we click on the count of a single country like Australia, with 109 names protected in the EU?

To see each geographical indication, we have to get down to this level, and click on each item. (Or we could just select the “list” display instead of “map”.)

To view the original blog post, please click here

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