After former US President, Donald Trump decided to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy lacked a certain geo-economic heft and that made it very less attractive to many Asean countries like Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia. After the coming of the Biden administration, the fact that the US is working on an economic framework for the Indo-Pacific had been doing the rounds. The US has repeatedly reiterated that the IPEF is not a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP). It has not involved, nor has it promised to involve in the future, negotiations to remove tariffs or increase market access. For now, the IPEF appears to be the US’s way of convincing countries that its Indo-Pacific strategy very much as a geo-economic component and is not just security and geo-strategy heavy.

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The question that arises is given that how will the Asean countries benefit from the IPEF? Is there any fear that they might withdraw from this framework if no substantial progress takes place in the future? It is important to look into the statements coming from the Asean countries that give out a preliminary idea of what their expectations are from the IPEF.

Analysts in Indonesia, like Dandy Rafitrandi, an economics researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that “participating would still benefit Indonesia, even if it remains unclear what real commitments the US will offer. If we don’t join, we might be seen as less competitive [to the US] compared with other countries.” There is obviously the fear among Southeast Asian countries that this will again require them to choose sides between the US and China and some analysts like, Ahmad Heri Firdaus of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF), Indonesia said that, “We need to reiterate that joining IPEF won’t damage our trade with China. We can cooperate with the US and China.” The primary concern that the Asean countries have is to not sever their ties with China and it can be seen from statements issued by the ministries of respective countries. Indonesian Trade Minister, Muhammad Lutfi who attended the virtual launch event stated, “going forward, the framework must benefit all the countries involved, remain inclusive and beneficial in the long term, not obstruct development plans in the region as well as work harmoniously with existing frameworks like the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific.” Indonesia’s trade ministry’s deputy director for Asean free trade negotiations, Ranitya Kusumadewi, has mentioned that “Indonesia is keen to team up with the Biden administration on the digital economy, supply-chain security and gradual energy transitions.” Though market access is not guaranteed under the IPEF framework, but Southeast Asian analysts like Yose Rizal Damuri, executive director of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), are hopeful that “the US will try to lure Indo-Pacific nations by giving monetary aid for development projects.”

Ms Hang, from the Vietnamese ministry of foreign affairs, believes that the “IPEF, with the right orientation, bounds to promote a positive and effective economic environment that brings practical benefits to the people as well as security and peace for the region as well as globally. Vietnam’s goal is to build an independent and self-reliant economy in the region that actively engages with the world in many aspects.” Analysts in Vietnam have commented that as one of the four pillars of IPEF, green energy is an industry that sees significant potential in Vietnam. Given the favourable geographical features, Vietnam is bound to become the next destination for investment in renewable energy, particularly solar energy and wind power. The IPEF is also expected to drive Vietnamese exports to the US market to an even higherlevel building on its positive relationship and historically growing exports to the US. The framework also strengthens the US – Vietnam relationship as trusted partners, which creates a favourable environment for investment flow and trade between the two countries.

The IPEF is also expected to drive Vietnamese exports to the US market to an even higherlevel building on its positive relationship and historically growing exports to the US.

Singapore’s prime minister, Hsien Loong, during his intervention at the virtual launch event at the IPEF had underlined that Singapore realises both the strategic and economic significance of the IPEF and that this provides the US an opportunity to exercise its economic diplomacy in the region. He had further pointed out, “The four pillars include issues that will resonate strongly in the region. In particular, they will also cover cooperation in the digital economy and the green economy, which show promise of growth.

It is important that the IPEF remains open, inclusive, and flexible. Enabling members to continue working with many other partners, in overlapping circles of cooperation, and leaving membership open to others to join later on, as and when they are ready to do so.” The point to be noted here is the point on flexibility and keeping the door open for other members to join in the future and this could have a clear indication towards China.

Malaysian prime minister, Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob also seemed confident that the IPEF will strengthen economic cooperation between countries in the Indo-Pacific and the ASEAN region and asserted that, “the new trade initiative provides a holistic structure to resolve trade issues with partner countries.” He further pointed out, “Malaysia is ready to discuss relevant issues through the IPEF to ensure that the members can optimise the economic and strategic benefits as outlined in the framework,” he said, adding that the medical, electrical and electronics (E&E) sectors, as well as the digital economy are expected to benefit from the trade initiative.”

At the virtual launch event, department of trade and industry (DTI) secretary Ramon M Lopez reiterated , “ the Philippines acknowledged the general alignment of the broad themes of the IPEF in advancing resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness and competitiveness and the Philippines’ economic and development priorities. The Philippines sees the IPEF as complementing individual and collective efforts towards inclusive recovery, and US support for Asean member-states in the pursuit of IPEF initiatives will be critical.” Therefore, for the Philippines, its economic recovery and development is the over all agenda.

The Philippines sees the IPEF as complementing individual and collective efforts towards inclusive recovery, and US support for Asean member-states in the pursuit of IPEF initiatives will be critical.”

Thailand looks to engage in four areas under the IPEF: Trade, supply chains, infrastructure and decarbonisation, and taxes and anti-corruption. Thailand has been extremely cautious when entering free trade negotiations with the West as private sector and civil society organizations are still strongly opposed to Thailand joining any Western-initiated free trade arrangement. But given that this is not a FTA, Thailand seems keen to be a part of the initiative.

What seems clear at the moment is that Asean countries who have always adopted a hedging strategy has agreed to join this initiative, in spite of being unaware of the clear vision and knowing that this will not provide improved market is for the fear of missing out in the future if this turns into something substantial. Therefore, the US has a lot on its plate to prove that this will not be another talking shop like initiative like the Blue Dot and the Build Back Better World (B3W).

Premesha Saha is an Associate Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her research focuses on Southeast Asia, East Asia and the South Pacific — spanning the Eastern Indian Ocean.

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Camille Bismonte is an associate in the East Asia & Pacific practice at Albright Stonebridge Group and is a former research intern with the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS.

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Furthermore, among the many wild cards that Beijing could use during the period of political vacuum in the US, opting for trade liberalisation is a great plus for China’s image and probably more relevant in economic terms than any other more aggressive option that the media have been discussing, from Taiwan to the South China Sea.

Still, it is important to note that the RCEP negotiations had been dragging on for eight years and that the final agreement has been watered down in terms of key liberalisation measures.

Not only was the geographical coverage bigger when the negotiations started – it included India – but the scope in terms of liberalisation was also larger. Furthermore, when RCEP started as a response to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the US-China strategic competition was just starting, while it is now pulling RCEP members in different directions.

The best example is recent trade friction between China and Australia, but there could be many others. In the same vein, increasingly pervasive US sanctions against targets in China will not help make RCEP a success.

While the US – and Europe – are key losers remaining outside of this deal, the biggest winner might not necessarily be China. China is no doubt bound to benefit, but other members within RCEP may benefit even more.

China will face fewer barriers to exports into the rest of Asia (including e-commerce). But the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, on the one hand, and South Korea and Japan on the other will find it easier to build their value chains, where production is based in ASEAN with Northeast Asian investment.

In fact, ASEAN countries have been receiving an increasing amount of manufacturing FDI (foreign direct investment) from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which is already bigger than their FDI into China. Such a sharp increase in investment into ASEAN is not only a response to higher labour costs in China but is also meant to diversify away from an excessively China-centric value chain.

Thanks to this, Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese trade integration within ASEAN has also been increasing, especially when focusing on intermediate goods. Against this backdrop, ASEAN will likely grow its own manufacturing capacity, thanks to Northeast Asia’s FDI. However, a good chunk of the final demand might still be in China.

In sum, while the actual increase in market access will remain limited among some of the RCEP members (such as Australia and China), the importance of this deal is for the world to realise that Asia is still dependent on the Chinese market and that Asian countries cannot pass on the opportunity of improved (even if still limited) market access into China.

As for the relative losers outside of the deal such as the US, we would imagine that the incoming Joe Biden administration will soon react by engaging in negotiations for a trade deal with Asia.

Alicia García-Herrero is a Senior Fellow at European think-tank BRUEGEL. She is also the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and non-resident Research Fellow at Madrid-based political think tank Real Instituto Elcano.

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London characterized the meeting as “a major step in the process of joining” the regional trade deal, and the U.K. now seems on track to become the first country to do so. Could the U.S. follow suit under a Joe Biden administration or a second Donald Trump term?

If the U.S. were to seek to rejoin the trade deal, it would admittedly be a stunning reversal. After all, in 2016 both presidential candidates criticized the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the deal’s predecessor. President Trump went further as soon as he took office by withdrawing the U.S. from the TPP, contending that bilateral trade deals were the way to go. Yet, the case for the U.S. participation is more compelling than ever.

Joining the CPTPP would be a sure way to deepen strategic and economic ties to Asia, a region that has become the engine for global growth, and that is projected to account for 50% of the global economy by 2040. The COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated that trend as East Asia is already bouncing back from the resulting economic slump faster than the rest of the world.

The COVID-19 crisis has also highlighted vulnerabilities in supply chain networks for critical and strategic sectors from medical supplies to semiconductors. Given that reshoring all production in those sectors is not feasible, establishing supply chains with trusted partners is an important alternative to enhance resiliency in these networks. The CPTPP, which lays out common rules and standards to facilitate the movement of goods and services between members, can serve as the basis for trusted supply chains in the region.

Finally, participation in the CPTPP would provide an important boost to U.S. strategy on China. The Trump administration’s go it alone approach, including unilateral tariff hikes and bilateral negotiations, has had limited success in reining in China’s unfair trade practices. Joining the CPTPP would give Washington an opportunity to work with like-minded countries to promote an alternative economic model to Beijing’s state-led capitalism.

While neither Biden nor Trump have said they would seek to join the CPTPP, both have expressed support for the idea at different points. Biden supported the TPP as vice president and he has more recently stressed the importance for the U.S. to write the rules of the road on trade. Candidate Trump vehemently denounced the TPP in 2016, but in 2018, as president, he suggested that the U.S. could join the CPTPP before saying that it would take a major renegotiation.

What would be the path for the U.S. to join? As described in a new Asia Society Policy Institute report, a major renegotiation as suggested by President Trump would likely be out of the question. While the U.S. would seek changes to reflect the evolution in technologies and U.S. trade policy similar to those included in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, there is little appetite for sweeping changes among member countries. Many of those governments expended significant political capital on the original TPP negotiations and still feel scarred by the abrupt U.S. departure.

On the other hand, the formal accession process, where the interested candidate is largely expected to accept the rules in place, is not appropriate, as the U.S. economy is larger than the combined economies of all other members. Some sort of middle ground would need to be found where the U.S. would focus on the most critical changes it would seek, and the CPTPP members would remain more flexible to welcoming revisions than during a more traditional accession.

Still, the U.S. has some work to do at home before it could be ready to join the CPTPP. This work includes consultations with Congress and other domestic stakeholders, such as business, labor, and civil society groups on what the U.S. trade agenda should look like. It would also need to invest in policies to boost U.S. competitiveness and innovation while providing meaningful and robust worker adjustment programs.

But this does not mean that the U.S. needs to wait to reengage on trade with the Asia-Pacific. The White House could pursue a narrower deal with the CPTPP countries first around a timely negotiating topic such as digital trade, the environment, and climate if Biden wins the election or trade in medical and other essential products. A sectoral deal would help build trust and serve as a starting point for U.S. reentry down the road.

It is fair to question whether rejoining is worth it, particularly given the opposition that the TPP faced only four years ago. Yet, with trade driving so much of both economic growth and regional economic alignment, reengaging the members of the CPTPP is one of the most impactful ways in which the president can help shape the future of the region.

Doing so would help propel the U.S. economic recovery, and provide a platform to work with like-minded countries to promote an alternative to China’s state-led economic model. The U.K., a world away from the Pacific, sees the CPTPP as an opportunity to “boost our economic security” and “reshape global trading rules alongside countries who share our values.” The winner of the 2020 election should as well.

Wendy Cutler is vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. She is a former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, where she had responsibility for the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.

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For decades, low-cost supply with minimal inventory were the key tenets of supply chain management. Lean manufacturing and just-in-time delivery were how companies across the globe achieved cost control and production efficiency.

For many major companies, China has been the key component of their supply-chain bodog poker review strategy. But while the earlier part of the decade was relatively static in terms of production and share of exports, some significant swings from China to other emerging markets started to be seen in 2018 and 2019.

In the consumer goods sector, for example, China’s share of global exports fell four percentage points to 42% in one year, while the figure picked up across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe.

While the simplistic view is that that production is moving out of China, a closer look into the data shows a complex picture of a new, more agile landscape emerging. It is being affected as much by specific sector issues — led by geopolitics, sustainability concerns and the desire to bring essential production onshore — as it is by labour costs and tax incentives.

Recent developments, experts say, clearly illustrate how the relocation and reorganisation of global supply chains is under way, and how it is being accelerated further by the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The global supply chain faces historic disruption. We will see more change in the next five years than in the last 20,” said Ben Simpfendorfer, the founder and CEO of the strategy consultancy Silk Road Associates (SRA).

“We are moving to a new model entirely shaped by competing forces, from US-China trade tensions, to Covid-19, to rising automation and digitisation.”

While many companies in the short term are looking to secure lower-cost suppliers in the interest of financial health and survival, businesses are seeing increased incentive to do more production in their home countries, or onshoring as it’s come to be known.

In longer term, businesses increasingly see the need for a more fundamental reimagining of supply chains. The supply-side shocks that characterised the early part of the pandemic have compelled many companies to prepare for substantive supply chain restructuring. The combination of all of these factors will result in a very different supply chain landscape by the mid-2020s, Mr Simpfendorfer said.

At the same time, the digital transformation of supply chains is accelerating. According to a joint report by the law firm Baker McKenzie and SRA, as workplace technology has made great strides due to the pandemic, so too will the management of global supply chains. Businesses will increasingly combine geospatial technologies with artificial intelligence (AI) to identify potential risks, bottlenecks and underperformance in their supply chains.

“Leading multinationals will likely look to integrating pre-emptive risk management and much deeper data analytics into their supply chains,” said Anne Petterd, head of the international commercial and trade practice in Asia Pacific for Baker McKenzie.

“Being able to fully map their supply chain to understand the geographic location of suppliers and feed the maps with alternative data, such as natural disasters or lockdowns, can help companies to have in-built defences against large shocks to their supplier ecosystems.”

Businesses are therefore increasingly likely to move away from reliance on a single supplier in a high-risk location (such as a flood-prone industrial park) or on a cluster of suppliers all located in the same concentrated area, she added.

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For multinationals, the crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of complex global supply chains built on lean manufacturing principles. At Unilever, a multinational consumer goods company, the key lesson learned since Covid-19 erupted in January is to have a supply chain that is well diversified, resilient and digitised.

“Logistics are extremely critical for us because several lanes are broken,” said Amit Mohta, Unilever’s vice-president of procurement for Asia, recalling the unprecedented challenges the company encountered when the coronavirus outbreak began in China.

“Whenever we do a disaster recovery plan, we’ve never planned for all the world being locked down. This was a unique moment,” he told an online forum hosted by London-based Standard Chartered Bank recently.

While China is the factory of the world, Unilever is based in nearly every part of the world. In that sense, it gives the company a natural hedge for sourcing from a wide variety of sourcing.

But the emerging issue is that several markets and governments are trying to be more cost-efficient and self-sufficient, partly to reduce logistics costs. Geopolitics is also a factor.

“We cannot control customers’ behaviour. What is essential is to make our supply chain more agile and be able to track how the demand is moving and reflects back in our production,” Mr Mohta said. Unilever’s logistics system, he said, is thus designed to store and move products in the most efficient way.

Kelvin Leung, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia, said the importance of digitisation has been underlined by the events of this year.

Compared to previous business disruptions such as the tsunami in Japan, floods in Thailand and Sars, this year has brought “a total disruption literally across the whole world”, he told the forum.

As major airlines cut passenger flights by 90% as passenger travel collapsed, more than half of the global uplift capacity of air freight also vanished.

“We don’t expect passenger traffic to come back in the near term even for this year-end Christmas-New Year holiday,” said Mr Leung. “That means that until the end of this year, on the supply side, I think uplift capacity will be far lower than the pre-Covid level.”

Demand is coming back but it might not be back to normal in 2021. That will put logistics costs higher than pre-Covid levels until things start to get back to normal a year later.

“Covid is really giving a big boost to digital transformation. We are having no choice but to go virtual and digital,” he said.

“This is a good opportunity to change the ways we operate to improve efficiency, especially among governments, for example, paperless connectivity and standardised documentation. It’s a good opportunity to push this agenda forward.”

ASEAN GAINS & CHALLENGES

According to the Baker-SRA study, which examined export market share across 350 product categories and 150 countries, China has a growing importance to key sectors, especially industrials, manufacturing and transport (IMT) as well as energy, mining and infrastructure (EMI).

Respondents from American, European and Japanese firms cited China’s large and growing market as a reason to retain manufacturing there. A European Chamber of Commerce Business Confidence Survey in June 2020 showed that 65% members still rank China among their top three destinations for new investment.

“China will take heart that while some low-cost manufacturing activities continue to shift to other geographies, in certain areas where China has a strategic focus, such as the energy, mining and infrastructure equipment space, they are actually gaining export market share, in part fuelled by the Belt & Road Initiative,” the report stated.

In Southeast Asia, meanwhile, manufacturing capacity including land, labour and logistics will determine potential growth as a supply chain hub. Latin America is another alternative for fast-moving buyers. In particular, Mexico has been capturing global export market share, helped in part by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that is reducing barriers to trade.

“Thailand has benefitted from a four-point drop in China’s global share of consumer goods and retail exports, and plays a major role in driving export growth in Southeast Asia,” said Ms Petterd of Baker McKenzie.

“The report also identifies the opportunities for the country as it becomes one of the sought after targets of renewed sourcing models.”

Asean is growing in attractiveness given a large market size of 630 million, a rising middle class and a young workforce, says Chow Wan Thonh, Regional Head of Client Coverage, Corporate, Commercial & Institutional Banking ASEAN and South Asia Standard Chartered.

“We see clients are trying to make sure that they have a much more secure, diversified and sustainable supply chain,” she said, adding that Asean can complement China under the China Plus One strategy for some corporate clients.

“Vietnam has already come back to pre-Covid levels given the rising tension between the US and China, and China’s costs. Today, the electronics industry is already pretty big in Malaysia and Vietnam, while Indonesia is pretty attractive for commodities. Every (Asean) country has unique attractions to individual industries.”

Moody’s Investors Service agreed that risk mitigation will lead to reduced dependence on China in global value chains and diversification will benefit Asean. However, localisation of production will potentially have negative effects for some Asean producers.

Specifically, trade diversification is likely to favour Asean economies over time, while the reshoring of supply chains closer to consumer markets — especially in sectors with heightened security requirements such as pharmaceuticals — could move productive capacity away, the credit rating agency said.

“We expect many governments and companies will reduce their dependence on China in global value chains moving forward, driven by the coronavirus outbreak, the China-US trade conflict, and heightened national concerns over economic security,” said Deborah Tan, a Moody’s assistant vice-president and analyst.

“While the technological capabilities of the Asean region still lag those of more advanced Asian economies, particularly bodog sportsbook review in electronics, a general openness to foreign direct investment and lower production costs will offer some advantages.”

Ms Tan said Asean economies need to mitigate the impact of a possible reshoring trend and the associated fragmentation of the global trading system. The bloc, she said, should enhance free trade agreements with advanced economies, deepen regional trade agreements in Asean itself, and develop Asean further as a trading bloc in its own right. “However, for the latter, Asean will first need to address structural challenges to harness the bloc’s full potential.”

GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS

It is no surprise that intensified geopolitical tensions such as the South China Sea conflict and deteriorating US-China trade relations are also among the factors that are driving companies to review their supply chains. Besides Asean, Taiwan has been one of the beneficiaries of this strategy.

Taiwan sits squarely in the middle of the worsening dispute between Beijing and Washington, with many of its companies operating China-based factories manufacturing for American companies. Those tensions are pushing Taiwanese companies to relocate some production back home and also redirecting money to factories on their side of the strait.

Taiwan’s government, meanwhile, has helped with tax breaks and other support, and that investment has cushioned some of the blows from the pandemic, which the island republic has managed very well. Now, government data shows that that its drive to lure firms from China is paying off.

Since January 2019, more than NT$1.1 trillion (US$38 billion) of Taiwanese investment has come back, Economic Affairs Minister Wang Mei-hua said last week, with tech manufacturers including Innolux Corp, Accton Technology Corp and Quanta Computer Inc among those building new factories in Taiwan.

Supply chains for electric vehicle manufacturers including Tesla Inc, which has a factory in Shanghai, are also moving to set up in Taiwan, she said, touting the fruits of the government’s policy to bring manufacturing and investment back.

The moves by Taiwanese companies are in contrast with those of US firms, which haven’t responded to President Donald Trump’s calls to return home. However, rising distrust of China is leading American companies to move their supply chains elsewhere, with Ms Wang saying the main driver for companies coming back to Taiwan is intellectual property concerns from US customers.

“It’s upstream companies that determine the direction of Taiwanese investment,” noted Roy Chun Lee, deputy executive director of the Taiwan WTO & RTA Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research. “The general trend is the creation of a second-track supply chain that is less reliant on China.”

One example is Wistron NeWeb Corp, which announced a new NT$2.7-billion investment in a factory in Taiwan in June, after its customers requested it diversify where it manufactures. The maker of routers and other wireless gear counts US-based AT&T and HP among its biggest clients.

There has also been a shift in sectors from information and communications technology, which dominated last year, with investment in compound materials and auto parts and components rising, according to Mr Lee.

Another recent change is that it’s not just American end-clients pushing companies back home to Taiwan’s skilled labour pool and highly developed supply network. “European companies are now beginning to follow their American counterparts and recommending that their suppliers diversify away from China,” he added.

Nareerat Wiriyapong is the acting Asia Focus Editor at Bangkok Post. 

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