Democracy Archives - WITA http://www.wita.org/atp-research-topics/democracy/ Tue, 08 Feb 2022 17:28:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 /wp-content/uploads/2018/08/android-chrome-256x256-80x80.png Democracy Archives - WITA http://www.wita.org/atp-research-topics/democracy/ 32 32 America’s Longtime Friend, Colombia, Needs U.S. Help /atp-research/colombia-needs-us-help/ Wed, 15 Dec 2021 17:00:47 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=32228 Colombia is facing uncertain and troubling times. Multiple, interrelated crises—including mass social protests, serious fiscal challenges, irregular armed conflict on its border, and the COVID-19 pandemic—are destabilizing the country’s political...

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Colombia is facing uncertain and troubling times. Multiple, interrelated crises—including mass social protests, serious fiscal challenges, irregular armed conflict on its border, and the COVID-19 pandemic—are destabilizing the country’s political landscape, economy, security, and society. Founded in 1810, Colombia is the second oldest democracy in Latin America, geographically well-positioned with access to the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea and blessed with ample natural resources.

With a population of approximately 50 million, Colombia has experienced previous political violence and survived almost 50 years of armed conflict with guerilla groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the revolutionary left-wing National Liberation Army (ELN) that have resulted in over 260,000 deaths. Colombia’s shadow, illicit economy has been driven in large part by the lucrative cocaine trade, as well as illegal gold-mining and oil-smuggling operations that have sustained insurgent and other armed groups for decades.

This hidden and corrupting economy continues to flourish and fuel insecurity in Colombia, aided and abetted by the neighboring criminal regime of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. Nevertheless, and despite these enormous challenges, Colombia’s legitimate free-market economy is thriving and ranks relatively high in the Americas region of the annual Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom.

US-Colombia Research

To read the full report by The Heritage Foundation, please click here

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A New Comprehensive China Policy: Principles and Recommendations for a Serious Debate in Congress /atp-research/new-comprehensive-china-policy/ Fri, 09 Apr 2021 13:29:51 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=27066 SUMMARY A major new bill on China policy is on the horizon. In a way, Congress has been preparing for a grand debate on China for years. Comprehensive bills have...

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SUMMARY

A major new bill on China policy is on the horizon. In a way, Congress has been preparing for a grand debate on China for years. Comprehensive bills have been filed. The U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission and the Congressional-Executive Commission on China are veritable idea factories. In addition, there are the almost 300 individual stand-alone measures that were introduced in the past Congress. This Backgrounder offers its own guidelines and recommendations. It is time to put as many existing ideas as possible to the legislative test and construct a China policy that will give direction to the present and future Administrations.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1.) The most persistent and consequential challenge that will confront the United States for the next several decades is China.

2.) Congress now has a once-in-a-decade opportunity to construct a China policy that will give direction to the Biden Administration and future Administrations.

3.) A Congress-led China policy requires a comprehensive approach that engages all levers of power while defending human rights, religious liberty, and economic freedom.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D–NY) has prioritized Senate passage of a major new bill on U.S. China policy. How the bill will come together—a total of eight committee chairs have been tasked with drafting it—remains an open question. Whatever the ultimate vehicle, this bill is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for Congress to develop a comprehensive approach to China. It should adhere as closely to the regular order as possible. In the process, Members should consider the following principles and specific policy recommendations.

Seven Principles for a Congress-Led China Policy

In order to fashion a China policy that is in the U.S. national interest, Congress should:

1. Go Big. Some Members want to make the bill entirely about economic competitiveness. But the China challenge encompasses a much larger gambit. It is also about more than the U.S. military presence in the region—which is essential to the U.S. presence in the Indo–Pacific and handled by Congress through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and defense appropriations bills.

There are diplomatic issues at stake. There are issues involving Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang, and faith communities of many stripes. There are domestic regulations that handicap the U.S. globally. All these and many other issues need to receive proper, systematic treatment. The U.S. competed with the USSR for 40 years in every area of engagement, all within the general framework of containment, and learned to adjust and adapt as conditions warranted. A similar comprehensive approach is warranted with respect to China, certainly different than the Soviet Union, and more complex, and thus needing similarly big ideas.

2. Watch the Congressional Purse. As one-time Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen (R–IL) is said to have remarked: “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” The fact that the federal debt is above $28 trillion and growing, with many looking the other way, does not mean that “money is no object.” Someday, the U.S. will have to make good on these debts. America’s strength lies not in how much taxpayer (and bond holder) money it can promise, but how well it can harness the advantages of its educational and research institutions, its deep markets, and the ingenuity of its people.

3. Stay Engaged. Congress often passes legislation on foreign policy and then forgets about it. In the upcoming China debate, Congress should institute forward-looking procedures requiring affirmation of the policies’ implementation. Carefully constructed certification and reporting requirements can be useful. Conversely, reporting requirements meant to simply prevent a Member from offering a more substantive proposal, are not.

4. Use Waivers Sparingly. There are ways to draft waivers that preserve congressional intent. The complex and amended waivers in the 2017 Counter America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act are good examples. On the other hand, blanket “national interest” or “national security interest” waivers are not the most effective use of Congress’s time.

Similar to the dynamics around reporting requirements, in processing the dozens of amendments that will be offered on this bill, it will be tempting to agree to the most sweeping of waivers. Members should resist. If their commitment is not strong enough to defend their amendment and force a vote, they should not offer it. U.S.–Chinese relations are headed in one direction for the foreseeable future. It will be exceedingly difficult for the Administration to argue for maximum diplomatic flexibility.

5. Avoid Protectionism. COVID-19 highlighted U.S. dependence on China for such necessities as pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment. Congress has also recently stood up a task force to examine national security supply chains and their vulnerability to Chinese influence. In the past, the U.S. has responded by requiring certain commodities or sectors to be supplied only from domestic U.S. sources. Often, such efforts are driven by a desire to shore up an ailing U.S. industry. Such remedies result in higher prices and often do not fix the base problem.

Instead of protectionism, the U.S. should focus on targeted measures that restrict critical purchases from entities controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and allow the United States to take full advantage of its rich network of allies to meet its national security needs.

6. Create a Policy Framework. One need look no farther than the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) to know that congressional policy statements matter. Administrations come and go, but the TRA has remained. Another example is the enduring value of the 1992 Hong Kong Policy Act, on which most action on Hong Kong has been built since. Congress should aim to create the same sort of lasting policy on China policy generally. It should think beyond the length of one session of Congress or one Administration, or the next election cycle.

7. Look Beyond China Itself. China presents the U.S. with many direct challenges. It seeks to constrain the movement of the U.S. Navy in international waters. Its agents steal U.S. intellectual property. With Made in China 2025 and Standards 2035, it has publicly declared economic war on vital elements of the U.S. economy. It is trampling on the rights of America’s friends in Hong Kong and destitute mainlanders. But the U.S. is not alone in this struggle. It has allies in Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand, and partners in India, Taiwan, Singapore, and throughout Europe. Whether Congress is talking about foreign policy or supply chains, it must keep the broader supportive context in mind.

14 Priorities for a Comprehensive China Bill

The following list is not exhaustive. The base China legislation and floor debates will involve many worthwhile proposals. This list is a sample of some of the highest-priority, immediately actionable items.

1. Taiwan. As much as Congress has done over the past few years, much remains to be done. Congress should take action on the provisions contained in the Rubio–Merkley Taiwan Relations Reinforcement Act, including making the director of the American Institute in Taiwan a Senate-confirmed position and helping U.S. businesses and nongovernmental organizations navigate pressure from China on Taiwan-related issues.

Congress should make an unequivocal, binding statement in support of a free trade agreement with Taiwan. The U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) institutional tendency is to avoid Taiwan. At the very least, a substantive proposal and debate will force it to face Taiwan.

To help facilitate regular interaction on trade issues, Congress should require the USTR to remove it from the same office dealing with China and put it under the authority of the Assistant USTR handling Japan, Korea, and the Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation. Dealing with China takes up so much of the USTR’s time that there is little left for Taiwan, even if the USTR is inclined to engage it. It often is not, due to Beijing’s sensitivities, another aspect of the gap that separating the functions will help ameliorate.

2. Xinjiang. Congress should direct the Administration to tackle forced labor in China by requiring an expansion of existing cotton and tomato Withhold Release Orders (WROs) to a region-wide level for a two-year period. Congress should provide that, if an overwhelming percentage of goods apprehended by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection under the expanded WRO are found to have been produced with forced labor, the U.S. must institute a region-wide rebuttable presumption that goods produced in certain sectors of Xinjiang are produced with forced labor. In addition to addressing forced labor, Congress should extend Priority-2 refugee status to Uyghurs fleeing persecution in China.

3. Hong Kong. Congress should extend safe haven protections to Hong Kong citizens facing newfound persecution by declaring them eligible for P-2 refugee status. According to U.S. refugee laws, a refugee is an individual who has experienced, or has a well-founded fear of future, persecution on account of “race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion.” The Department of Homeland Security should remain in charge of evaluating the eligibility of individuals seeking refugee status.

4. U.S.–Chinese Space Cooperation. Congress should codify prohibitions on U.S.–Chinese space collaboration in what is currently renewed annually in the appropriations process, and expand congressional notifications to include the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs Committees. Congress should also tighten executive branch waiver authority, or scrap it altogether in favor of the direct approach to military-to-military engagement in the FY 2000 NDAA.

5. The Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act. Congress should reform the BUILD Act to make it explicitly about countering Chinese influence.What makes U.S. government-provided foreign infrastructure financing and risk insurance at all palatable is its place in a broader China strategy. That place should be made clear in the law that authorizes the new International Development Finance Corporation. Funds should also be made subject to the regular appropriations process so that Congress can maintain sufficient oversight.

6. Chinese Cyber Theft. Congress shouldcodify Executive Order 13694, which blocks property of foreign entities engaged in cyber theft and other cyber malicious activities, expand the action to physical theft and deemed exports, and decouple the sanctions from reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

7. Confucius Institutes. Congress should require universities and K–12 schools to disclose their financial ties to Confucius Institutes—nationwide propaganda organizations, masking as cultural institutions, sponsored by the Chinese government. Shortly after taking office, the Biden Administration withdrew a rule proposed late in the Trump Administration to do so. Congress should require it to be reinstated. As for the purported purpose of the institutes to encourage the study of Mandarin, there are alternative ways of ensuring a sufficient pool of Mandarin speakers is available for U.S. government service.

8. Easing Export Controls on India. Congress should revise the Arms Export Control Act to include India among a special group of NATO alliance members and key non-NATO partners (Australia, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea) facing lower regulatory hurdles to U.S. arms exports.

9. Chinese Influence within International Organizations. China is using economic and diplomatic pressure to secure support in international organizations. Congress should authorize the Administration to use aid and other incentives as a counterweight. Beijing has also clearly signaled its desire to put Chinese nationals in positions of authority in the United Nations system. The U.S. needs to be well prepared for appointments and elections. It should develop a robust list of prospective candidates and ongoing procedures to campaign and rally support for these candidates.

Congress can help by establishing an office to coordinate this process and renew the congressional reporting requirement on the status of U.S. employment in the U.N. to help keep track of progress. Finally, Congress should use its financial leverage to enhance U.N. transparency, whistleblower protections, and accountability, which help to reveal malfeasance in the U.N. system.

10. Rare-Earth Minerals. Congress should address concerns about supplies of rare-earth minerals by focusing on reform at home. It is not China that has made these minerals difficult for the U.S. to secure, but domestic regulation. Actions that Congress can take to get at the problem include clearly defining “navigable waters” in the Clean Water Act to strictly limit federal authority, prohibiting pre-emptive and retroactive vetoes under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act, empowering states to manage their water resources, repealing the National Environmental Policy Act, reforming the Endangered Species Act, prohibiting the use of the social cost of carbon in regulatory proceedings, and eliminating agencies’ ability to regulate greenhouse gases.

11. The 2022 Winter Olympics. Congress should encourage the International Olympic Committeeto postpone the 2022 Beijing Olympics and select a new host country. In the absence of such a change, Congress should call for an international diplomatic boycott. This means no official attendance beyond what is necessary for the participation and security of U.S. athletes.

12. Religious Liberty. Congress should require the Administration to issue a report listing individuals and entities sanctionable under the Global Magnitsky Act, along with explanations for why they may not yet be sanctioned.

13. Banking-Sector Reform. Congress should reduce impediments to competition in the financial-services sector so that people will want to invest in U.S. markets instead of in other countries. To strengthen the U.S. financial-services sector and attract more investment and capital formation, Congress should implement reforms, such as creating new charters for financial firms that eliminate activity restrictions and reduce regulations in return for straightforward higher-equity or risk-retention standards, as well as adjusting the currency-transaction-report threshold for inflation from $10,000 to $60,000 and the non-bank reporting threshold for inflation from $3,000 to, $10,000 and repealing the beneficial ownership reporting regime on small businesses.

14. Digital Currency. Congress should respond to China’s plans for creating a digital currency by fostering innovation at home. The United States cannot assert significant influence over China’s digital currency plans. It can, however, orient its own policies to create a prosperous environment for America’s financial innovations. Congress should remove barriers to market entry for alternative monies, and ensure that no single type of money enjoys a regulatory advantage. At a minimum, Congress should amend “legal tender” laws, eliminate capital gains tax disadvantages, and modify private coinage statutes.

Conclusion

In a sense, Congress has been preparing for a grand debate on China for years. Comprehensive bills have been filed, such as the Strengthening Trade, Regional Alliances, Technology, and Economic and Geopolitical Initiatives Concerning China (STRATEGIC) Act and the America Labor, Economic competitiveness, Alliances, Democracy and Security (America LEADS) Act. The House Foreign Affairs Committee’s 2020 China Task Force Report has literally hundreds of recommendations. The U.S.–China Economic and Security Review Commission and the Congressional-Executive Commission on China are veritable idea factories. And, none of this even accounts for the almost 300 individual stand-alone measures that were introduced in the past Congress.

It is time to put as many of these ideas as possible to the legislative test and construct a China policy that will give direction to the Biden Administration and Administrations to come.

Walter Lohman is Director of the Asian Studies Center, of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, at The Heritage Foundation.

To view the original report by The Heritage Foundation, please click here. 

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Rethinking US-China Competition: Next Generation Perspectives /atp-research/rethinking-us-china-competition/ Sun, 30 Jun 2019 13:55:56 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=16570 From a potential “responsible stakeholder” to a “strategic competitor,” the U.S. government’s description of China has changed dramatically over the past years. Once a de facto partner in the Cold...

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From a potential “responsible stakeholder” to a “strategic competitor,” the U.S. government’s description of China has changed dramatically over the past years. Once a de facto partner in the Cold War, Beijing is increasingly seen as an economic rival at home and a challenge to American power in Asia and perhaps abroad. Furthermore, as knowledge of China’s social controls and treatment of ethnic Uighurs spreads, many Americans wonder what role values and human rights should play in U.S. policy toward Beijing. The discourse around China and its role in the world is changing.

 
 
 

 

In spring 2019, Brookings Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones convened four Brookings scholars and affiliates—Tarun Chhabra, Rush Doshi, Ryan Hass, and Mira Rapp-Hooper—to probe how the rising generation of foreign policy scholars think about the evolving debate around China and the future of the U.S.-China relationship.

The edited transcript below reflects their assessments of China’s evolving foreign policy intentions, their debates on how to define the changing U.S.-China relationship, the dynamics of strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, as well as potential policy responses.

The highlights:

  • Assumptions that have guided U.S. relations with China since the Cold War are being revisited and in some cases overturned. While the intentions behind Beijing’s foreign policy decisions remain up for debate, China’s growing weight and impact are increasingly apparent in its immediate region and around the globe, necessitating a shift in policy response.
  • Part of this shift stems from China’s growing relevance across strategic and regional domains, requiring engagement from a wider range of relevant stakeholders. From technology to the global economy and global governance, as well as from Southeast Asia to Europe, a growing number of issue areas are affected by Chinese actions and the U.S.-China relationship.
  • Strategic competition between the United States and China requires concerted U.S. efforts in a range of domains beyond traditional defense issues alone—including diplomacy, infrastructure, development, technology and artificial intelligence, and more. However, nor can American policymakers ignore the changing security balance in the Indo-Pacific and its implications for U.S. operability and the credibility of American alliances with regional states.
  • The Cold War model has limitations to the current context, and poor analogies can lead to bad policymaking. However, this caution should not prevent scholars from interrogating the history of the Cold War for applicable lessons to the current moment, particularly around societal mobilization for long-term peacetime strategic competition.
  • While the onset of strategic competition between the United States and China creates areas of tension and rivalry, it should not be assumed that all areas of competition will result in a negative spiral. The prospect of positive “race-to-the-top” dynamics should be further explored in spaces like development in Africa and in infrastructure.
  • U.S.-China strategic competition will be a critical lens through which to view the relationship in the coming years, but it cannot be the only one. The return of great power competition does not erase the serious transnational challenges that confront the globe. From combating infectious disease to preventing financial crises and countering climate change, the United States and China must work to preserve channels for cooperation.
  • It is possible that we will look back at Xi Jinping as having made a critical strategic error to end prematurely China’s “hide and bide” policy, thereby enhancing Western pushback and resolve, rather than reaping the benefits of Western dysfunction.
  • These caveats aside, the growing tensions of U.S.-China strategic competition are now upon us. This competition need not lead to conflict, but the relationship will require sustained attention and long-term diligence.
Brookings interview

 

[To read the original report, click here.]

Copyright © 2019 Brookings Institution. All rights reserved.

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The Democrats and Trade Policy: Hints (and Divisions) from the House of Representatives /atp-research/the-democrats-and-trade-policy/ Mon, 29 Apr 2019 20:08:13 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=15487 With trade policy positions in flux in both parties, predicting partisan political outcomes in the trade policy arena is akin to reading the future from the entrails of a goat....

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With trade policy positions in flux in both parties, predicting partisan political outcomes in the trade policy arena is akin to reading the future from the entrails of a goat. The new Democratic majority in the House, however, is asserting authority in a number of areas, not least on trade policy. For instance, in coming months House Democrats will decide the fate of the most important formal Trump administration trade initiative, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The US House of Representatives historically has taken the lead on trade policy, as the Constitution mandates that all revenue bills originate in that body. For more than two centuries, trade policy largely consisted of tariff (tax) policy, so the Speaker of the House and the party majority in the Ways and Means Committee retained powerful sway over congressional action in the trade area—even after trade policy transcended tariffs and included regulatory aspects of services and investment.

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[To read the original brief, click here.]

Copyright © 2019 American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved.

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Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy /atp-research/rebuilding-a-bipartisan-consensus-on-trade-policy/ Wed, 17 Apr 2019 16:53:12 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=15441 By the summer of 2018, the United States was ramping up its first real trade war since the 1930s. The Trump administration was slapping tariffs on Chinese imports and responding...

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By the summer of 2018, the United States was ramping up its first real trade war since the 1930s. The Trump administration was slapping tariffs on Chinese imports and responding to Chinese retaliation with escalation. The closest US allies were hit with tariffs on steel and aluminum on the grounds that trade in these products posed a national security threat. The Trump administration was detailing the flaws of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and using its power to block new appointments to the WTO’s dispute settlement system. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal that the United States had spearheaded was proceeding without US participation. The system of rules-based trade that had been built largely to US specifications was rapidly being dismantled, and American farmers and businesses were starting to feel the effects.

How did it come to this? How did trade become a central issue of the 2016 presidential election? Why was the country turning back to the sort of protectionism that had been discredited during the Great Depression? …

The purpose of this monograph is to offer a primer on the rapidly shifting trade situation. Chapter 2 begins by retracing the country’s steps—how did we get to our present position, starting from the shattered global economic system following World War II? It goes on to consider two of the most salient issues in the trade debate: the fate of the US manufacturing sector and the role of China in the global trading system. Chapter 3 delves into some of the particular issues that have been the most contentious, from trade’s alleged role in destroying manufacturing jobs, to dispute settlement, to trade deficits. Chapter 4 then explores paths the country might take to try moving toward a nonpartisan consensus on trade. These range from changes in how we negotiate trade agreements, to changes in how we perceive and describe trade agreements, to changes in the institutions supporting trade agreements.

The monograph’s goal is to respectfully represent the different sides of the vigorous debate. This does not mean that all arguments will be accepted as valid. Some prominent ones are demonstrably wrong. But the work does strive to give each side an honest hearing.

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[To read the original monograph, click here.]

Copyright © 2019 The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. All rights reserved.

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European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2018 /atp-research/european-economic-forecast-autumn-2018/ Thu, 08 Nov 2018 16:45:48 +0000 /?post_type=atp-research&p=13180 Foreword Economic growth in Europe has peaked in 2017. The European economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade last year, but growth has moderated since and the outlook...

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Foreword

Economic growth in Europe has peaked in 2017. The European economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade last year, but growth has moderated since and the outlook is now less favourable. Barring major shocks, GDP should continue to grow at a moderate pace. The road ahead is however fraught with uncertainty and numerous, interconnected risks.

Last year’s exceptionally benign global environment helped to underpin economic activity and investment in the euro area. Although economic momentum has softened this year, mostly as a result of weaker external trade, domestic demand growth has remained sufficiently strong to support robust job creation. Over the next two years we expect GDP in the euro area to decelerate in line with a further slowing momentum of foreign trade as the global economy has entered more choppy waters. Domestically, the pick-up in inflation will weigh on household real income growth even though wages are finally increasing more visibly. The emergence of labour supply shortages in some Member States will make it more difficult to maintain the current pace of job creation over the coming years. However the euro area economy does not display real signs of overheating that could put an untimely end to growth. All in all, this is still a benign projection in which GDP growth gradually eases towards potential and the unemployment rate falls further.

That said, some of the risks identified earlier are materialising, e.g. trade tensions or turmoil in emerging markets. Further downside risks are growing and interconnected; they could lead to a significantly worse outcome than projected. Trade tensions continue to run high, even though so far they mostly concern USChina trade. Should extensive new tariff and non-tariff barriers emerge and spread, the negative impact on international trade and global growth would be sizeable. In a context of high corporate leverage, a combination of tighter-than-expected US monetary policy and an abrupt unwinding of the fiscal stimulus in 2020 could well provoke a brisk slowdown in the US that would spill over and weaken economic growth prospects in many parts of the world, including Europe. Many financial assets look vulnerable to a reversal of investor risk perceptions. A general and sharp retreat from risky assets would be detrimental to highly-indebted firms in advanced and emerging market economies and cause broader spillovers. In Europe, uncertainty about the outlook for public finances in Italy has led to higher interest spreads, and the interaction of sovereign debt with the banking sector is still of concern. Finally, the risk of a no-deal Brexit would entail abrupt changes in trade relations between the UK and the EU after April 2019 and harm the economies on both sides of the Channel. Under any scenario, the impact is expected to be much larger on the UK than on the EU27.

These risks could reinforce one another. Addressing them requires policy action on three fronts. At the global level, there is a need to improve the rules-based multilateral order that has underpinned world trade so far and that has, in particular through the G20, contributed to strengthening international financial and macroeconomic stability. In Europe, decisive progress needs to be made on EMU deepening, in particular through the completion of the Banking Union, to reduce uncertainty and enhance financial stability. Economic policy at this juncture needs to focus on strengthening fundamentals and enhancing resilience to less favourable circumstances. We need to continue to frontload reforms that foster potential growth and resilience and at the same time improve the equality of opportunity for all. The EU can facilitate structural reform, but the bulk of the effort must inevitably come from national authorities. Member States, particularly those with high debt levels, need to run prudent fiscal policies to ensure the sustainability of public finances and re-build policy space while prioritising expenditures that increase fairness and medium-term growth prospects.

OVERVIEW: LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY

Interrelated external and domestic risks are clouding the outlook

The EU economy is entering its sixth year of uninterrupted growth and all Member States are expected to grow over the forecast horizon. But the moderation of momentum since the start of the year and leading indicators both suggest that economic growth has peaked in 2017. The extraordinary impulse from the rebound in global growth and trade enjoyed by the European economy last year is already wearing off, as the outlook for global growth is weakening and trade tensions have risen.

The strength of Europe’s domestic growth drivers should however be sufficient to allow activity to continue growing and unemployment falling. The improving labour market, slightly stronger wage growth and expansionary fiscal measures in some Member States, should help to sustain consumption next year. In addition, investment should enjoy the continued support of still favourable financing conditions, even assuming the gradual normalisation of monetary policy. The outlook, however, is clouded by the presence of a number of interrelated downside risks.

From 2.4% in 2017, euro area GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2019, slightly below the growth rate projected back in the summer. It is then expected to ease smoothly to 1.7% in 2020. Exogenous factors, such as fading world trade growth, rising uncertainty and higher oil prices should have a dampening effect on growth in general, while economic activity should also weaken as labour market improvements slow, slack diminishes, and supply side constraints become more binding in certain Member States.

After rising in synchronised fashion, GDP growth across the world is set to become more divergent, especially within emerging markets, as previously identified risks related to trade protectionism and financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets have begun to materialise. Global growth, however, is forecast to remain robust in the near-term as economic activity in advanced economies will benefit from buoyant momentum in the US boosted by a procyclical fiscal stimulus, strong labour markets and sentiment. Over the next two years, GDP growth in advanced economies (excluding the EU) is expected to moderate, as the economic cycle matures and less support comes from monetary and fiscal policies. In the US, the positive effect of the fiscal stimulus in 2019 is set to be partly offset by the negative effect of higher tariffs, and GDP growth is now expected to be moderately weaker than forecast in the spring.

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